BEEF

Beef prices are expected to hold a balanced tone through November, as strong demand for middle meats offsets moderating prices across other cuts. Even with improved margins, packers are likely to stay cautious on slaughter, keeping production below year-ago levels and supplies tight. The Cattle on Feed report put October 1 inventory at 11.372 million head, down 0.4% from last year and 0.6% below average trade estimates. September placements totaled 1.777 million head, down 12.1% year-over-year and 4.8% below estimates, while cattle on feed 150+ days reached 3.538 million head, up 22.5%. Beef imports should remain elevated through year-end before a January reset, when China’s 2027 import quotas open. Mexican cattle imports are proceeding under the USDA’s phased approach but are unlikely to meaningfully affect beef availability until 2027, even as early signs of domestic herd rebuilding re-emerge. Holiday demand looks robust, supported by corporate earnings that have largely beaten estimates and equities hovering near record highs, with foodservice demand expected to be active as gatherings and celebrations lift middle meat purchases. As seasonal demand shifts from grilling to roasting cuts, four variables will shape direction: packer profitability, the pace of Mexican cattle imports, progress on U.S. herd rebuilding, and the potential for softening domestic demand.