Market Outlook

Prices are set to trade steady to higher through Labor Day before trending gradually higher into the holiday season, with the typical seasonal dip in Choice beef grades adding further near-term supply constraints.

Prices are expected to soften through month-end, with easing consumer demand for higher-value beef cuts driving the downward trend, even as some buyers look to take advantage of lower levels to cover needs.

Prices are set to maintain a neutral tone into August, consistent with seasonal norms, as Tenderloin demand follows its typical seasonal softening trend amid growing consumer spending caution.

Prices are set to stay subdued into early August on seasonal trends, as foodservice demand remains moderate and retail activity continues to struggle with grilling interest fading.

Prices are expected to remain under seasonal pressure through early August, as buyers gravitate toward more competitively priced alternatives to higher-cost beef cuts. Available supply remains more than adequate and may contribute to further price easing.

Prices are likely to trade steady to lower in the near term, as foodservice demand remains moderate and the seasonal pickup in consumer grilling interest ahead of Labor Day has yet to materialize.

Prices are expected to maintain a weak tone heading into August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Moderate foodservice demand and ample load availability will keep downward pressure on prices.

Prices are set to trend softer over the next several weeks, counter to seasonal norms, as retail buying interest fades and skirt meat exports demand remains subdued.

Prices are expected to hold steady over the coming weeks, consistent with typical seasonal trends. Although buyers are likely to begin building inventory ahead of September, ample supply should be sufficient to offset any meaningful upward price pressure.

Prices are set to trend weaker through mid-August on seasonal trends, with Chuck demand remaining soft on dismal grinding activity, though prices may be nearing levels that generate renewed interest.

Prices are expected to remain soft into August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns, as the market navigates a post-Fourth of July lull with Labor Day demand yet to emerge and retail promotional activity remaining notably subdued.

WOGs closed the week with a generally steady market tone. While low-volume sales continue to occur at supportive levels, production is becoming increasingly available amid softer retail demand. Market assessments for both weight categories remained unchanged during the week, pending further market signals.

Breasts and front halves ended the week quietly. The boneless breast meat market experienced additional pressure heading into the weekend, particularly within medium and NAE production. Jumbo conventional and NAE boneless breast meat values moved lower, while Select product remained stable. A similar trend was observed in the tender market. Jumbo tender values were generally maintained, although demand softened and the market remained steady. Medium tenders continue to face heavy discounting.

Jumbo wings continue to move at supportive market levels, while small and medium wings maintain premium positioning due to stronger demand.

Within the dark meat complex, legs, leg quarters, and drums are becoming more readily available. Although some discounting has been noted, it remains inconsistent across the market. Leg quarter values were generally maintained during the week. Thighs continue to face pressure from weakening thigh meat demand. While the market previously appeared to be testing for support, recent lower-priced transactions indicate that available supply continues to outpace demand. Leg meat remains generally steady, though lower-priced trades have been slow to emerge.

Demand for whole birds remains comparatively stable, although ongoing discussions regarding current production levels and future supply expectations continue to create market uncertainty. Within the frozen whole bird turkey segment, conditions remain largely unchanged, with spot availability described as adequate but not abundant across most sales channels. Suppliers with limited current and forward inventories continue to maintain a firm position, supporting market values. Consumer and institutional-sized breasts are also well positioned, with moderate to active spot buying interest. Overall, the market remains steady as participants monitor for any developments that could influence pricing direction.

Within the raw materials market, fresh breast meat and tenderloin demand remains seasonally soft, resulting in a modest increase in spot offerings as the weekend approaches. Sellers continue to encounter limited buying interest from traditional channels, leading to increased pricing pressure and a wider range of discounted transactions. While fresh breast meat values moved lower during the week, frozen breast meat markets remain generally balanced, with only isolated opportunities for additional spot purchases emerging. Overall, the category is considered stable despite weakness in the fresh segment.

Prices are expected to remain firm into August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Retail demand is anticipated to remain adequate in the near term, while supplies have tightened considerably following packer downtime due to maintenance and operational issues.

Prices are set to trade steady to lower, bucking typical seasonal trends, as adequate supplies combine with weak retail demand and reduced exports to weigh on the market.

Prices are anticipated to ease into August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Retail demand for ribs is expected to soften as consumer preferences continue to shift toward other pork cuts.

Prices are expected to maintain a softer tone through the end of August, bucking the typical seasonal pattern in which values tend to hold relatively steady. Retail demand for boneless butts remains sluggish despite recent price declines.

Prices are set to remain firm through month-end on seasonal trends, underpinned by Mexican export demand for bone-in hams and growing retail interest in boneless hams for lunchmeat ahead of the back-to-school season.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production remains impressive while warming temperatures across the country are limiting milk output, while regional plant downtimes have kept milk more available nearby. Seasonally lower summer output and upcoming bottling demand for schools should limit weakness. US milk production report showed yet another large increase in June, jumping 2.3% YOY as another 19k head were added this month from the May report. This is the largest US herd in 33 years and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, but cream multiples have been increasing.

The domestic butter market saw a volatile week of trade that left prices only slightly higher by Friday’s close.  Prices were under pressure early in the week, before end users stepped back in and we saw the largest daily volume since 2003.  This renewed order interest helped support prices back towards unchanged on the week and continues to support the choppy rangebound activity.  Prices have been leaking lower over the past few weeks, but with the market coming into better balance it should be tough to retest the lows from this past week. However, the flip side is equally true where rallies should struggle to find follow through interest in the face of impressive butter output and readily available cream supplies. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard, requiring more aggressive pricing to move product into domestic and export channels.  This trend of large milk and cream supplies is expected to continue, with the USDA confirming fluid milk output jumped 2.3% YOY in June and that US herds remain in expansion mode.  When combined with the strong butterfat content in the milk, butterfat output was even more impressive in June.  June milkfat tests came in 1% above the prior year, and when combined with the expanded milk output, added 3.3% more cream output that the prior year. The abundance of butterfat this season has continued to remove supplies concerns for the upcoming fall baking season, however demand is still robust on breaks in price.  When combined with the seasonal declines in milk and cream availability into the summer months, further downside opportunity appears muted as butter prices typically rally in Q3.  Cold storage levels for June remained 6.6% lower than last year as we enter the seasonal drawdown time of year and the tighter supplies are expected to keep some support underneath the market nearby.

The domestic cheese markets rejected their recent highs and are trading back into the middle of their recent range. Reduced milk output from higher temperatures is limiting spot availability of milk nearby, but the recent run up in US values has eroded the competitive advantage vs. other major exporters and will start to limit our ability to maintain the current record export pace seen so far this year.  The US was able to export 18% more cheese in May than the prior year, helping prevent stocks from becoming burdensome. The most recent Global Dairy Trade auction showed New Zealand cheddar prices falling 6.5% after previously falling 12.3% on the prior report. Stagnant domestic orders and a loss of competitiveness into the export market should help contain further upside risk in the coming weeks. The USDA’s Cold Storage report showed the largest May to June increase in a decade, with all cheese stocks for June coming in 0.8% lower YOY and American cheese stocks -1.7% YOY.

The shell egg markets continued its rally this past week, but upside momentum has been slowing as end users dial back orders at these higher price points. Conventional and cage free shell egg markets remain in better balance during what is normally the weakest time of year. Ongoing flock rotations have helped to limit the excessive amounts of eggs seen in May/June, while increased heat stress and strong export demand to Asia and Mexico have also helped limit oversupply. Even as we move into the summer doldrums for demand, prices should remain supported as recent poor producer margins limit growth potential in the US. This was noted on the USDA’s most recent Chickens and Eggs report that showed table egg laying flocks on July 1st were only 324k head higher than the prior month. Overall flocks are still 5% higher than the prior year, but when factoring in the 1.5 million layers that have been hit by HPAI so far this month, flocks are likely working lower. Also, the historically weak markets have sparked additional order interest as lower retail shelf prices and value propositions to foodservice drive some restocking efforts.

Despite renewed attacks between the US and Iran, energy prices remain well off their recent highs and soybean oil prices have followed lower. The ongoing supportive biofuel mandates will keep some level of order interest beneath the market from end users, but rumors this week around potential small refinery exemptions has kept the market on its heels. Current prices are now limiting additional feedstock imports, creating concerns for satisfying the elevated 2026 biofuel mandates. Domestic soybean oil basis offers remain firm through Q4 as crushers look for tighter stocks ahead.

The November canola seed futures made a new high for the move last week, but is following the soybean oil market lower so far this week. Cumulative Canadian canola exports have reached roughly 8.73 million metric tons, outpacing recent federal projections for the 2025–26 marketing year. RBD canola oil basis offers remain firm through the third quarter.

The palm oil futures closed higher last week, modestly narrowing the discount to soybean oil, but remain entrenched in a sideway range. China’s imports slowed in June, and high production cycle inventories remain a competing factor, though narrowing supplies and extreme weather risks keep the floor under prices. In the US, it appears that imports of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia should be exempt from the newly imposed section 301 tariffs.

Asparagus markets are showing slight signs of easing, but supplies remain constrained out of Mexico. Expect low volume and firm markets through July.

Mexico

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available; packer label is being substituted as needed
• Southern Baja production has concluded; Central Mexico is now the primary growing region
• Heavy rainfall across Central Mexico has reduced yields and increased quality concerns
• Jumbo and extra-large sizes remain especially limited and are expected to remain tight through the summer
• Quality is generally fair to good, although there are occasional reports of wet tips and early decay due to recent rains
• Markets are easing slightly; however, supplies remain limited due to ongoing size and quality challenges

Peru (into South Florida)

• Prices are moderately lower
• Warmer-than-average weather patterns have caused quality challenges and reduced overall yields
• Quality ranges from fair to average; some lots are exhibiting dehydration and feathered tips
• Expect elevated markets into August

New crop green bell pepper summer production is underway on both coasts; markets are easing. MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

California’s San Joaquin Valley is harvesting ample supplies out of Fresno

• • Quality is very good with all sizes available
  • Additional volume out of Arroyo Grande’s coastal region is pushing prices lower
• Central Mexico has low volume crossing into South Texas
• New Jersey stocks are plentiful; quality is great
• Production has started in the Midwest and will increase over the next few weeks
• Western North Carolina harvests are underway; quality is very good
• Expect lower markets with new crop summer production starting

Red Bells

• California’s Bakersfield area is moving into peak production next week
  • Quality is very good
  • Promotable volume is expected in late July/early August
• Supplies are limited on the East Coast
• Eastern Canadian greenhouse yields are low due to recent heat waves
• Current steady prices will inch down over the next two weeks

Blackberry supplies are erratic in several major growing regions.

Mexico

• Supplies are tight due to pruning, which is reducing the vines’ ability to produce more fruit
• Quality is poor due to humidity
• Heat-related issues include softness and cell regression (black cells shrink and turn red)
• Volume should rebound in September
• Expect markets to remain steady and short

Watsonville

• The season is expected to begin between July 20-31
• Quality is excellent
• Expect markets to remain steady

Pacific Northwest

• Harvesting has gotten off to a slow start
• Production is low this week
• Expect stocks to increase next week

North Carolina

• This short season will wrap by the end of the month, depending on weather
• Quality is good
• Stocks will diminish through the end of the season

Brussels sprout supplies are ample as the California season progresses. Quality is very good, and availability of jumbo sprouts has increased.

• MFC and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Brussels Sprouts are available; packer label is being substituted as needed
• Production is centered in the Salinas and Santa Maria regions
• Supplies are plentiful, with abundant availability of small and medium sizes; jumbo supplies have increased
• Quality is very good
  • Sprouts are exhibiting good color with minimal seeder
  • Occasional yellowing is being reported in isolated lots
• Markets are expected to remain steady with promotable volume available through July and into early August

Increased San Joaquin Valley melon production has decreased prices. MFC Cantaloupe and Honeydew are available.

Cantaloupe

San Joaquin Valley, California

• Production has steadily increased this week
• While all sizes are available, 9-count melons are more abundant than 15-count supplies
• Fields are producing solid quality with great external and internal color
• The increased volume has led to markets dropping significantly this week
• Expect markets to keep trending down further into next week as production ramps up

Honeydew

San Joaquin Valley, California

• Production is increasing this week
• Size is dominated by large with five-count and jumbo five-count melons; eight-count stocks are limited
• The week of July 20 will bring a slightly better mix of honeydew sizes
• Quality is very good; sugar levels range from 12-14% Brix
• Markets will move down more slowly than cantaloupe prices

Elevated humidity levels have recently settled across the Salinas/Watsonville growing regions, influencing crop growth and field conditions.

Salinas/Watsonville

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Berry size ranges from medium-large to large; counts average 16 to 20 pieces per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good; issues include bruising and soft skin
• Abnormally high temperatures and humidity forecast through this week and early next will cause berries to mature more quickly and decrease quality
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect flat markets for the next week

Green leaf, iceberg, and romaine markets are steady at low levels. MFC Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine Lettuces are available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed.

Salinas/Santa Maria, California

• Quality ranges from fair to good; recent warm, humid weather has increased insect pressure, internal burn, mildew, and seeder
• The overall quality downtrend is expected to continue as higher-than-normal temperatures are forecast to persist through early next week
• Disease pressure, including Impatiens Necrotic Spot Virus (INSV) and Sclerotinia, continues to be present; percentages of impacted heads vary from lot to lot

• Despite less-than-ideal quality, supplies are plentiful and demand is weak
• Markon QA inspectors continue to work with our grower-shipper partners to select the best lots

Colorado

• Iceberg harvests are ongoing and will continue through mid-September
• Weights are lower on average compared to California; however, quality is clean with no internal burn or mildew being reported
• Colorado liner weights are currently 40-42 pounds, compared to 44-50 pounds in California

Mexico (crossing into Texas)

• Production is year-round

• • Quality and yields are below normal due to monsoonal weather conditions
  • Peak season for production and quality will resume in October and run through April

Michigan

• Harvests of green leaf, iceberg, and romaine will continue through September

Northeastern Canada and USA

• Harvests of all lettuces are underway and are in peak season

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho. The Florida and North Carolina seasons have ended. Overall supplies are tightening; prices are rising for both colors. Expect elevated markets until mid-August when other areas begin production.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Red storage supplies are limited due to strong demand
• Yellow potatoes are being sourced from California to supplement orders
• Overall quality is good
• Prices are rising on both colors
• New crop yellow production will start late next week while reds will begin in mid-August

California

• Red and yellow harvests are underway in the Stockton region
• Supplies are extremely limited due to lower acreage from previous years
• Quality is excellent
• Current demand exceeds supply, keeping markets active
• The season will finish over the next two weeks

Texas

• This season is in full swing for both red and yellow supplies
• Quality is excellent; skinning is minimal
• Markets are elevated due to strong demand

Upcoming Regions

• The Wisconsin season will start on July 27
• Minnesota stocks will be available the first week of August