Market Outlook

November 18, 2022
  • BEEF
  • POULTRY
  • PORK
  • SEAFOOD
  • DAIRY
  • GRAINS & OILS
  • PRODUCE
BEEF

BEEF

Prices will take on a more neutral tone going into September as overall demand cools while at the same time beef production continues at a decent clip over the next several weeks. Foodservice buyers are nearing completion of their purchases for seasonal demand for beef for year-end holiday celebrations. Prices for higher quality beef items will be firm as supplies continue to fall short of demand for Foodservice. Retail demand for beef tends to soften in November, with poultry taking center stage. Retailers will gradually reduce prices at the meat case to retain foot traffic. Export demand will continue to be uneven, but interest for certain primals will be supported by Asian markets looking to buy product for upcoming celebrations including the Chinese New Year. On the supply side of the ledger, last week U.S. cattle slaughter was 671,000 head, an increase of 1.8% over the same week last year. Supplies of cattle remain sufficient to keep slaughter levels above trend through the middle of December.

 

higher
Ribeyes:

Prices will continue to take on a firm tone over the next several weeks and seasonal demand tends to hold firm this time of the year. Foodservice demand remains firm in the face of tighter supplies of uncommitted product, particularly for Upper 2/3 choice and Prime graded product.

steady
Strips:

Prices will hold to a neutral tone going into December, resisting the seasonal trend for values to soften going into the end of the year. Retail demand will hold firm and to a lessor degree export buying interest will increase to keep prices better supported this year.

higher
Tenderloins:

Prices will continue to show a firm tone in the near term, following normal seasonal price trends. Foodservice demand is strong enough to create price competition for uncommitted loads, which in turn will keep prices strong.

Lower
Tri-Tips:

Prices will maintain a softer tone going into December, falling in line with normal seasonal price trends. Foodservice demand will continue to be restrained as the segments that use Tri Tips face softer foot traffic.

steady
Top Butts:

Prices will recover to a more balanced tone over the next several weeks, following normal seasonal price trends. Foodservice demand for boneless Top Butts will be on-trend and supplies will be adequate to meet demand.

Lower
Briskets:

Prices will continue to take on a softer tone in the near term, taking cue from normal seasonal price trends. Retail demand will seasonally decline and, absent promotional activity, Foodservice demand will be low.

Lower
Flap Meat:

Prices will maintain a softer tone over the next several weeks, following normal seasonal price trends. Foodservice buyers are committing to product with less enthusiasm, which will compel packers to drop offers in order to move product.

steady
Skirt Meat:

Prices will trade sideways over the next several weeks, falling in line with normal seasonal price trends. Demand will come from higher-end Foodservice segments and Asian export markets, however supplies will be adequate to meet demand.

steady
Inside Rounds:

Prices will shift to a more balanced tone over the next several weeks, following normal seasonal price trends. Demand for end cuts will benefit from consumers trading down the carcass, forcing further processors to bid up for available loads of Rounds for further processing into Inside product.

higher
Ground Chuck:

Prices will continue to take on a strong tone going into December, trading independently from normal seasonal trends. Retail demand for Chucks is very strong, forcing further processors to pay up for raw material for grinding purposes.

steady
81/19 Ground Beef:

Prices will shift to a more neutral tone over the next several weeks. While retail demand will continue to be strong, Beef Cow slaughter is at or near record levels and keeping the market better supplied.

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POULTRY

POULTRY

With Thanksgiving just a week away, chicken trade activity and market dialogue has begun to take a back seat to the seasonal bellwether that is the whole-body turkey complex. Today’s tone speaks not only to the historically-anticipated lull in day-to-day spot movement of key chicken lines, but also to the “sidelined” status of the wings. Here, Retail, Foodservice, distributive, and further processing buying channels continue to overlook “America’s favorite finger food” despite highly competitive price points and fully adequate supplies.

steady
WOG’s:

Although much of the chicken complex continues to navigate through a bearish-leaning trade environment, the whole chicken and WOG segments remain fairly well-supported at listed price points. A combination of consistent retail needs and a stout call from cutting and QSR operations help to bolster today’s steady and unchanged market. As noted in this morning’s tone, spot transactional activity surrounding bone-in breasts and front halves remains limited. The low-volume movement which surfaces is inked within a close range of our currently quoted values. At the same time, some buyers maintain a prudent approach to negotiations given the downward pressure encircling breast meat.

steady
Breasts/Tenderloins:

The undertone surrounding jumbo boneless breasts is about steady. Although some marketers continue to hold out for listed values, others demonstrate a willingness to offload production in a reasonably wide range of discounts. Medium and select-sized offerings also make the rounds back of the market, which is largely a result of a more tempered call arising from traditional purchasing channels. Tenders close the morning with an about steady to steady rating overall. Trade sentiment is mixed. Those with regular exposure into further processing and food service sectors generally paint this line in the most positive light.

Lower
Wings:

Wings of all sizes struggle to gain the attention of willing buyers. This, in combination with fully-adequate supplies and fully-packed freezers, leave most sellers caving in to lower ask prices.

steady
Thighs/Legs/Leg Quarters:

Turning to the back half of the bird, legs and leg meat are mostly quiet this morning. The same can be said for fresh leg quarters. Sellers of frozen leg quarters note a recent improvement in buying inquiries for the waning days of ’22 and early ’23. As a result, export trade sentiment is marginally more positive leaning. Buyers of thighs, thigh meat, and drumsticks, on the other hand, easily dig up full requirements. Today’s bulk of sale come in at a discount and our quotations notch lower accordingly.

steady/higher
Turkey Whole Birds:

No changes in market sentiment this week. Effects from AI culls still remain prevalent in market supplies as we head into Thanksgiving. Whole Birds continue to be sold out in most sizes. Total headcount is down nearly 10% vs same time period last year while freezer inventories are down over 30%.

steady/higher
Turkey Breast:

Demand continues to outpace supply at retail and foodservice channels. Floor prices continue to rise as demand increases without the Breast meat to support.

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PORK

PORK

Prices will take on a neutral tone going into December as the seasonal increase in production that normally takes place in November/December is tempered by lower year-on-year production, strong retail demand, and firm buying interest from export markets. Last week, U.S. hog slaughter was 2.492 million head, or 4.9% lower than the same week last year, as domestic supplies of market hogs are tighter than expected. Retail demand for pork items remains firm as consumers continue to willingly pay record prices, on average, for pork items in the grocery stores. Buying interest from export markets will remain firm as the competitiveness of U.S. pork prices on the global market will increase with the recent weakness in the value of the U.S. dollar.

Lower
Bellies:

Prices will continue to take on a softer tone over the next several weeks, following the strong seasonal trend for values to gradually decline through the end of the year. Foodservice demand will continue to remain light, while retail demand will likely see some resistance from consumers facing record bacon prices at the meat case.

steady
Loins:

Prices will continue to take on a balanced tone through the end of the month, following normal seasonal price trends. Pork production will seasonally increase during the month, however demand from export sales channels will be sufficient to keep prices in a range.

Lower
Ribs:

Prices will shift to a softer tone over the next several weeks, as demand tends to seasonally decline going into December. Asian export buyers have been coming into the U.S. Rib market looking for values, but supplies will be more than adequate to keep prices restrained.

steady
Butts:

Prices are set to range trade in the near term, defying the normal seasonal trend to decline. Lower year-on-year pork production along with buying interests from Retail consumers will keep prices a bit more supported.

higher
Hams:

Prices will continue to take on a firm tone going into December. The combination of strong demand from Mexico and domestic retail channels in the face of tight cold storage supplies will keep prices firm.

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SEAFOOD

SEAFOOD

Seasonal changes and yields are effecting the seafood outlook.

Lower
Farmed White Shrimp:

There continues to be a softer bias in the shrimp market and more widespread discounting. The primary drivers behind the price action are large inventories and high carrying costs. Demand is fair; buyers see little supply risk, which in turn, has reduced buying activity, and sellers are willing to compete when needed.

Lower
Farmed Black Tiger Shrimp:

Discounts in this category were limited to just a few items, however the category is broadly susceptible. Replacing larger shrimp appears painless and pricing quite competitive. Conversely, smaller shrimp are more difficult to replace but they are most susceptible to competitive pressures from white shrimp.

steady/higher
Wild Gulf of Mexico Shrimp:

Fishing has started and first loads are arriving in the US. There is much doubt about what the new season will bring. Although input costs are up, we will likely see boat prices 30%+ lower than last year due to the global shrimp supply glut.

steady
Scallops:

Scallop market remains stable in a normally soft time as next year’s quotas look to be significantly reduced.

steady
Warm Water Lobster Tails:

Markets have stabilized after months of unsettled demand and pricing. Demand is moderate and inventory is favorable with new season catches in action. Short Term: Soft to Steady Price

Lower
North American Lobster Tails:

This season has yielded lower landings than spring and summer season but pricing has remained soft. Smaller sizes are plentiful. Larger sizes are expected to become more available towards the end of the year. Short Term: Soft Pricing

Lower
Lobster Meat:

Market prices steady at lower levels with inventories available. Short Term: Soft Pricing

steady/higher
Canadian Snow Crab:

The season in Canada is over and will resume again in April. Prices remain relatively stable and lower offerings than previous years. Talk of particular zone closures has increased some pricing but overall tone is steady. Short Term: Steady to Increasing Pricing

steady/Lower
Ahi/Yellow Fin Tuna:

Steak and Loin availability is improving and market prices have seen some slight softening but poke cubes and saku blocks continue to be limited and markets remain firm with high demand. Short Term: Stable/Softened Pricing

higher
Fresh Tuna:

Seasonal strain on Tuna fishery begins as Polynesian countries exhaust their quotas and begin to purchase globally.

higher
Fresh Wild Halibut:

As the US season ends, Canadian catch isn’t sufficient to cover demand in the market.

Lower
Pangasius/Swai/Basa:

Domestic markets and offerings remain soft as inventories are available. Farmers overseas are holding fish in ponds longer in hopes to drive markets up again and hopes for China to take a large position of inventory. Supply and availability is good and markets are stable at reasonable levels. Short Term: Soft Price

steady/Lower
Farmed Atlantic Salmon:

Market continues it’s seasonal softening – likely to see a reversal first week of December.

higher
Keta Salmon:

Plant shutdowns overseas has left the country with limited supply available. New Alaskan season started out poorly but improved as the season continued and is now being shipped to China for processing. Replacement product is expected to arrive early next year and will remain very limited for the upcoming months. Short Term: Firm Price

 

steady
Chilean Salmon:

Markets have stabilized and frozen inventory is becoming more available as we enter the holiday season when demand increases. Short Term: Stable Pricing

steady
Norwegian Salmon:

Markets and inventories remain unchanged and are stable with inventories available. Short Term: Stable Price

steady/Lower
Tilapia Fillets:

Production and inventories are steady. Markets have flattened after historic highs and production cycles are catching up to regular production. Buying activity has increased as importers are preparing for Chinese New Year and Lent. Short Term: Soft Steady Pricing

Lower
Blue Swimming Crab:

Blue swimming crab remains barely steady to weak. Overall, there continues to be some still lower offers collected on all grades, with some significantly lower offers noted as well. Supplies remain fully adequate for a fair to quiet demand. Inventory positions are reported to vary greatly by seller. The undertone is unsettled especially on colossal meat with both higher and lower offers noted.

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DAIRY

DAIRY

Dairy continues to be a fairly volatile market.

steady
Milk / Cream:

Milk output is steady to increasing across the country as cooler temps are benefitting cow comfort. Domestic milk prices are starting to find some support after hitting their lowest levels since last December. Dairy herds are now back above year ago levels, and the younger, more productive animals pushed output 1.5% above 2021 for September. Given herds were contracting a year ago, expect the production increases to improve further into the year end even if herds stabilize nearby. Cream supplies are improving as milk output rebounds. Multiples have come off of their historically higher levels, but remain firm as supplies are still trying to recover and seasonal cream demand is strong.

steady
Butter:

Butter prices are finding support off the recent lows given renewed buying interest ahead of the holidays. Despite increased milk output and cream availability, nearby supplies are still limited heading into the key holiday/baking season demand period. However, the recent USDA cold storage report showed stocks declining slower than seasonally expected, pointing to some demand rationing at these lofty prices. Stocks in cold storage are still 18% below last year, but that is an improvement from -22% last month. The USDA reported September churn rates were slow due to expensive cream, coming in 1.4% below the prior year With macro and inflationary concerns, questions around how strong demand will be into the end of the year should keep some pressure on prices. Exports were strong in August, up 101% YOY, but these sales were done months ago when U.S. values were more competitive. Look for a slowdown in upcoming months, and for imports to remain firm. Prices seasonally tend to decline in Q4/Q1.

higher
Cheese:

The cheese markets continue to push higher as blocks hit their highest level since June.  The strength came from renewed commentary from the USDA about their plans to spend almost $1 billion on a variety of proteins, including dairy.  With the price impacts of the Food Box Program of 2020 still fresh in buyers minds, spot values surged following the renewed commitment of the government.  Colder weather across the country is helping push more milk onto the market and should keep vats full and cheese production near the recent highs.  However, the dairy products report showed more of that milk was pushed into mozzarella production instead of cheddar in September, with mozzarella output up 4% and cheddar down 1.7% YOY.  This month’s Cold Storage report showed cheese inventories at all-time highs for September, which is limiting nearby upside in prices.  Foodservice demand has been firm, while the retail side of the ledger has started to take on a softer tone.  September cheese exports continued to run at massive levels, up 5% from the prior year and at a new record for the month.  Keep in mind that this is still only 6% of monthly production, and domestic orders will be the key to forward price direction.

steady
Shell Eggs:

The conventional and cage free shell egg markets are firm.  Prices are pushing back towards record highs after 2+ million layers in Iowa were impacted by bird flu the prior week. Buyers continue to evaluate opportunities to add more supplies, which remain historically low heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. The less than stellar Chickens and Eggs report from the USDA showed October 1st flock sizes only marginally higher than the prior month and 4.8% lower than 2021.  Due to fewer birds in the flocks, production remains lower YOY but only 3.3% given better rate of lay from the more productive flock.  Longer term, the U.S. laying flock is still showing signs of rebuilding, with chicks hatched in September up 8% YOY and table flock eggs in incubators up 3% from 2021 levels.  Overall shell egg inventories were 3.3% higher this this past week but remain at historically low levels, while cage free supplies increased 8.3% and hit their highest level in 30 weeks.  Prices are still expensive, while the longer term trend still points lower into Q1, but bird flu outbreaks remain the wild card.  Margins at the wholesale level are still incredibly profitable, even with the higher YOY feed/labor/energy prices they are realizing.

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GRAINS & OILS

GRAINS & OILS

The grain markets remain rangebound as prices try to manage the volatile global headline risk out of the Black Sea, along with the weaker global demand prospects from inflation and macro economic concerns. This week has demonstrated the impacts that news out of the Black Sea can have on the grain and oilseed markets. Tuesday’s missile strike on the Polish border caused prices to rally as it was believed to be Russian. However, once it was deemed a Ukrainian air-defense missile, prices came crashing back down. Also pushing prices back to the lower end of the range has been comments out of Russia about extending the grain export corridor past Nov. 19th under the belief that exports would go to more impoverished regions and not the EU. In the U.S., corn and beans harvest (93% and 96% complete, respectively) are nearing completion, along with winter wheat planting which is 96% complete despite very dry conditions. The USDA did increase the condition rating again this week for the winter wheat crop by 2%, but it remains at a record low 32% good to excellent rating. Fortunately there are some incremental rains scheduled for the next few weeks, but the S. Plains need every drop of moisture. U.S. export prices are still not very competitive in the world market amid lofty futures and the strong US Dollar, but some improvement in Mississippi water levels has helped pressure Gulf offers. The Brazilian growing season is off to a great start as great weather is encouraging record output estimates, but still a ways to go before it is realized. Argentina conditions have been much drier, but are picking up some timely rains. The U.S. is still facing a looming railroad strike that could go into effect December 4th if a new deal is not ratified, keeping support under cash values.

steady
Soybean Oil:

Have backed off of the recent highs, but remain significantly above their early October lows. Uncertainty over what the EPA mandates will look like on November 30th and continued strong seasonal demand from both the food and biodiesel sectors have kept a bid in this market despite the current “overbought” status. Domestic crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remained mostly steady last week although some are expecting a bit more weakness as we enter the heaviest part of the crushing season.

steady
Canola:

The new crop canola seed futures remain near their recent highs, but are softening slightly as seed movement picked up into the crushing facilities and export terminals. Canola basis levels remained mostly steady, taking their cue from the soybean oil basis values.

steady
Palm Oil:

Palm oil futures are stabilizing near the upper end of their recent range. The market continues to trade near a record discount to the soybean oil on the global cash market. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported end of October palm oil stocks at a 37 month high of 2.404 million metric tons, but below trade estimates. The Indonesian trade ministry reported last week that 9 Indonesian firms had agreed to sell 2.5 million metric tons of palm to Chinese buyers.

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PRODUCE

PRODUCE

DOWNLOAD THE MARKON FRESH CROP REPORT

higher
Bell Peppers:

Coastal California red bell peppers are experiencing harvest delays; volume is expected to recover next week as production transitions to the Coachella Valley.

 

Red Bells

  • Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Red Bell Peppers are extremely limited; packer label will be substituted as necessary
  • The California growing regions of Hollister and Oxnard cancelled harvesting on Thursday, November 10 due to extremely muddy conditions; attached is a photo for reference
    • Crews are expected to return on Friday, November 11
    • Evening temperatures in the mid-30s are hampering the ripening process
  • The transition to the California desert region will start on November 14
  • This week’s high markets will soften over the next two weeks

 

Green Bells

  • MFC and ESS Green Bell Peppers are available
  • The California desert has adequate supplies
    • Crews are harvesting this week
    • Quality is very good; size is dominated by large and medium peppers
  • Georgia and North Florida growers are seeing production delays due to Tropical Storm Nicole
  • The Mexican season (into Nogales, Arizona) has started in a limited manner
  • Expect markets to increase slightly
higher
Broccoli:
  • Supplies from both the Salinas and Santa Maria valleys are diminishing as the season winds down
  • Widespread pin rot continues to affect the appearance and shelf-life of crowns
  • Cooler weather, especially low nighttime temperatures, and rain in the forecast for this week will slow head maturation and could increase the occurrence of mildew in finished packs
  • Expect elevated markets and very limited supplies until the third week of November
higher
Brussels Sprouts:

The Brussels sprouts market is inching up as holiday demand increases.

 

  • Salinas and Santa Maria, California are the primary growing regions at this time; harvesting will continue through late December
  • Growers in Mexico will ramp up production in early December
  • The size profile is dominated by jumbo supplies; small and medium sizes are readily available, though not as abundant
  • Overall quality is strong; some lots are exhibiting insect pressure and off color
  • Expect active markets through late December; prices will ease as holiday demand subsides and Mexican volume ramps up
higher
California Strawberries:

California strawberry quality continues to recover after heavy rainfall in all California growing regions. Expect to see quality challenges and elevated markets for the next 7-10 days.

 

Santa Maria and Oxnard, California

  • Volume remains limited; harvesting has been impacted by rain and cold overnight temperatures
  • Quality concerns include soft skin, decay, white shoulders, and pin rot
  • The industry is in a demand-exceeds-supply situation
  • Expect strong demand and elevated markets through the month of November

 

Central Mexico

  • The season has begun; volume is beginning to increase after a slow start to the season
  • Size is medium (approximately 19 to 23 berries per one-pound clamshell)
  • Limited quantities have begun to cross into McAllen, Texas; volume will increase in late November/early December as size and quality improves

 Florida

  • Harvesting has begun in a very limited way; fruit will hit the market in early December
  • Orders for MFC Strawberries are estimated to begin shipping the week of December 12
higher
Celery:

Celery

  • Celery markets are rising due to increased demand and reduced industry supplies
  • The Michigan season has ended, shifting demand to California
  • Oxnard production is underway; disease pressure in initial lots is reducing harvestable yields
  • The Salinas season is winding down and is expected to be finished mid- to late November
  • Santa Maria production will continue year-round
  • Arizona and California desert production will start early to mid- December
  • Expect elevated markets and strong demand through the holiday season
higher
Cilantro:
  • Cooler weather in the primary growing regions has reduced harvestable yields at the field level
  • Arizona and California desert supplies are delayed by two to three weeks, incurring transfer fees to get product to Yuma crossdock
  • Strong winds are leading to tip burn and increased dirt in final packs
  • Expect markets to continue rising through early to mid-December amid holiday demand
higher/steady
Grapes:

Green and Red Grapes

  • ESS Grapes are available 
  • California green and red grapes are expected to be in season until mid-December
  • Quality is good; some rain-damaged fruit is being reported
  • Offshore Peruvian/Chilean green grapes are expected to begin shipping in mid-December
  • Expect pricing to gradually increase through the end of the California growing season

 

Portioned Grapes

  • MFC Lunch Bunch Grapes are available
  • California portioned grapes are expected to be in season until mid-January
  • Quality is good; some rain-damaged fruit is being reported
  • Offshore Peruvian/Chilean portioned grapes are expected to ship in mid-January

Expect prices to rise through the end of the California growing season

 

Green Grapes

  • ESS Green Grapes are available 
  • California green grapes are expected to be in season until mid-December
  • Quality is good; some rain-damaged fruit is being reported
  • Offshore Peruvian/Chilean green grapes are expected to begin shipping in early to mid-December
  • Expect gradually rising prices through the end of the California growing season

 

Red Grapes

  • ESS Red Grapes are available 
  • California red grapes are expected to be in season until late December
  • Quality is good; some rain-damaged fruit is being reported
  • Offshore Peruvian/Chilean red grapes are expected to become available in late December
  • Expect gradually rising prices through the end of the California growing season

 

Portioned Grapes

  • MFC Lunch Bunch Grapes are available
  • California portioned grapes are expected to be in season until mid-January
  • Quality is good; some rain-damaged fruit is being reported
  • Offshore Peruvian/Chilean portioned grapes expected to ship in mid-January
      • Expect prices to rise through the end of the California growing season
higher/steady
Green leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine:

Green leaf, iceberg, and romaine supplies are increasing as production in the Arizona and California desert ramps up. Extremely elevated market levels persist, but will decrease in the coming weeks.

 

  • Initial quality in the Arizona/California desert regions is very good; low weights, odd shape, puffy texture, seeder, and wind damage are present in some early lots
  • Green leaf and romaine supplies are more readily available compared to prior weeks, causing markets to begin to inch down
  • Iceberg remains limited; prices have peaked and are expected to decrease next week
  • Expect markets to continue to decline into early December as supplies increase in the desert and Thanksgiving demand subsides

 

higher
Green Onion:
  • Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Washed & Trimmed Green Onions are limited; packer label is being substituted as necessary
  • Supplies and quality are slowly increasing in the Mexicali growing region; recent heavy storms have significantly reduced yields and slowed further maturation
  • Prices are rising amid holiday demand and cooler weather in the growing region
  • Expect markets to remain elevated through November
higher
Potatoes:

Idaho Potatoes- Limited Production

Extremely low temperatures persist in Eastern and Southern Idaho. Suppliers will load on limited production schedules around the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

  • Temperatures need to be 18 F° or higher for several hours to haul potatoes from cellars to packing sheds in order to avoid freezing raw product
  • Many suppliers are electing to limit production on select days next week in observance of the holiday, helping the continued effort to extend potato volume
  • Reduced production and delayed loading are expected through next week
  • Advanced order lead time is highly recommended for order fulfillment; orders loading through Saturday, November 26 should be submitted by end of day tomorrow
higher
Melons:

Cantaloupe and honeydew supplies are tightening; Prices will strengthen over the next few weeks. MFC Cantaloupes and Honeydews are extremely limited; packer label is being substituted as needed.

 

Honeydews

  • The domestic honeydew season has finished; growers in Northern Mexico are moving into their winter fields
  • Offshore supplies are expected to start shipping the last week of November
  • Mexican quality is fair; ground spotting and wind scarring are occasional issues

 

Cantaloupe

  • The domestic cantaloupe season will end in the next two weeks
  • Mexican supplies will ship through mid-December
  • The offshore season has started in a light way with Guatemalan cantaloupe (into Florida); rising ocean freight costs are reducing overall shipments of offshore melons to West Coast ports
  • Quality is fair out of all current growing regions
higher
Tomatoes:

Tomatoes markets are elevated due to this season’s severe storms. MFC Tomatoes are extremely limited; packer label will be substituted, as necessary.

 

  • All varieties of Florida tomatoes are limited after recent hurricanes
    • Small sizes and No. 2 grades with scarring are most plentiful
    • Improvements aren’t expected until January when South Florida’s replanted crops are harvested
  • Mexican round and Roma harvests are adequate in both Eastern Mexico and Baja
    • Demand is strong, pushing up markets
    • Sufficient supplies will resume in January when replanted crops are harvested in Culiacan
  • Grape and cherry tomatoes are snug; however, will rebound by mid-December
  • Most suppliers are requesting quality leniencies for the remainder of 2022
  • Expect high prices over the next six weeks
higher
Watermelon:

Watermelon demand is currently exceeding available supplies out of Northern Mexico. Weather has been a factor.

 

  • Cold weather in the main growing region of Sonora, Mexico is slowing plant growth and hindering production
  • Supplies are extremely limited; growers are struggling to fill full truckloads
  • Fall weather is causing shorter days and cooler temperatures leading to lower-quality melons
    • Recent rains in the region caused vine disease, further lowering yields
    • Expect lower sugar content, lighter colored melons
  • Elevated markets and tight supplies will persist through November (until offshore melons enter the market this winter)

 

From The Fields: Desert Region Lettuce Outlook Please click here to view a Markon Live from the Fields video regarding the current supply and quality outlook for lettuce items in the Arizona/California desert growing region.  
  • Many suppliers of lettuce and tender leaf crops are done in the Salinas Valley and have started production in the desert region
  • The crops are healthy and there is no presence of the types of soil disease and virus pressure that brought ended the Salinas season early
  • Suppliers are roughly 5-7 days ahead on most crops, which has kept case weights for commodity packs well below normal
  • Seeder/long core has been present in many fields and may continue to be present for another 7-10 days
  • The forecast throughout November calls for cool, windy conditions overall with below average temperatures
  • Expect light case weights for the next three to four weeks or longer given the cool forecast and suppliers being ahead of their harvest schedule
  From The Fields: Desert Region Weather The Arizona/California desert growing region is experiencing high winds with gusts ranging from 40-50 mph. Daytime highs are 10 degrees below normal and will stay that way through Saturday, November 19. Light-to-moderate lettuce ice is expected over the next several days as morning lows dip into the mid-30°s to low 40°s.   Potential challenges for lettuce and tender leaf items resulting from the high winds and cold temperatures include:  
  • Elevated dirt/mud in commodity and lightly processed items
  • Epidermal blistering and peeling
  • Increased wind damage
  • Prolonged low case weights due to slowed plant growth and dehydration
  From The Fields: Lettuce Ice in The Desert Region Temperatures in the Arizona/California desert growing region dipped into the mid-30°s to low 40°s this morning, causing light-to moderate lettuce ice to develop. Harvesting crews for lettuce and tender leaf items will be delayed 2-3 hours or until the ice has fully thawed. Value-added production and loading delays can be expected through the weekend with more cold temperatures and lettuce ice in the forecast.  
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