Market Outlook

Prices will slip back into a more steady tone in coming weeks, falling more in line with seasonal trends. Retailers have taken a less aggressive purchasing bias on Ribeyes, providing an opportunity for buyers looking for fill in volume.

Prices will take on a strong tone through the end of April, falling in line with seasonal trends for the month. Demand will continue to be strong in coming weeks and any price dips will quickly attract buying interest.

Prices will shift to a more steady tone, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Retailers have adjusted featuring activity away from higher priced meats, moderating demand for Tenderloins.

Prices will take on a neutral tone through the end of the month as values do not seasonally firm until the first half of May. Retail demand will hold steady in the near term and supplies, while tight by historical standards, will be adequate to meet demand.

Prices will trade steady in coming weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Buyers tend to shift away from roasting meats in the spring, however retail demand will be strong enough to keep prices in a range.

Prices will continue to hold a balanced tone in coming weeks as grilling demand has yet to develop in a meaningfully way, keeping prices restrained.

Prices will follow seasonal trends for the next several weeks and trade with a steady tone. While overall beef production will continue to trek lower both seasonally and year-on-year, Foodservice demand for Flap Meat will be uneven.

Prices will continue to take on a firm tone through the end of the month. The normal seasonal trend for prices to rally in April will be reinforced by tighter supplies of Skirt Meat.

Prices will take on a more accommodating tone in coming weeks as availability for Round primals and subprimals improves seasonally, putting more supply on the market.

Prices continue to range trade through the end of the month, following seasonal price trends. Foodservice demand will be uneven in coming weeks, offsetting the price impact of tighter supplies of available product.

Prices will continue to take on a steady tone in coming weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. While lean trimmings prices have approached record levels, fat trimmings prices have languished largely due to higher supplies of product.

The WOG complex closes the morning under a stable and well-established backdrop. Supplies are adequate across most points of sale, with negotiations and finalized bookings centering around steady price points. Trade activity surrounding bone-in breasts and front halves hasn’t been particularly active recently which is reflective in its stable pricing. Trade sentiment is generally neutral without much market-swaying movement noted.

Turning to boneless breasts, those on the purchasing side continue to uncover their requirements without trouble at, and slightly below market. The supply-side backdrop remains diverse and highly dependent on the processor in question. Some players contend with fully adequate production, while isolated instances of constricted availability are also evident. All in all, the market needle was slow to point one way or the other and we rate this segment as steady pending additional developments. Limited supplies of tenders continue to be held by sellers with a confident grasp. Traditional purchasers absorb offerings within a narrow range of supportive price points.

The same can be said for the fresh whole wing complex which closes the morning under a steady and well-supported backdrop. Chunk meat maintains a stable rating, while some sellers of trim meat continue to evaluate the willingness of buyers to fork out a slight overage.

Offerings of fresh legs, leg quarters, and thighs are adequate in keeping up with the current draw. Some sellers demonstrate more willingness than others to lower prices when necessary, but most are solidly established at listed levels. Frozen bone-in back half offerings for export are held for a modest overage for forward-facing delivery dates. Leg meat is well established at listed price points. The call for thigh meat is moderate to active and we rate this line as firmly steady. Fresh and frozen MSC is well-cleared across most points of sale, with some players struggling to source their immediate spot requirements.

While a recent outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) was reported in South Dakota it was the first such incident in nearly six weeks, contributing to market stability. Prices have remained largely flat, and given current market conditions, we see no reason for them to deviate from this trend. In the near term, prices are likely to stay flat or even dip slightly.

Breast markets will remain steady, and follow along the trajectory as the underlying Whole Bird Market.

Prices will maintain a softer tone in coming weeks, following seasonal price trends for April. Retail features of bacon is running 35% below last year, which will keep prices at bay in the near term.

Prices will trade steady through the end of the month, respecting seasonal trends for the back half of the April. Demand from both domestic and export channels are expected to pick up in May. However, for the time being supplies are adequate to keep prices in balance.

Prices will take on a strong tone in coming weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Cold storage supplies were very tight according to recent USDA data, triggering a more aggressive purchasing bias from domestic sales channels.

Prices will continue to trade steady for the next several weeks, respecting seasonal price trends for April. A summer rally is expected due to tighter supplies later in May, however the market is adequately supplied in the near term.

Prices will continue to show a strong tone due to the combination of seasonally lower hog harvest rates and exceptionally strong demand from Mexican importers.

As anticipated, there were no changes made to the assessment despite the ongoing, firm bias in the market for imported, farm-raised shrimp. While costs have risen, and reports suggest future arrivals have even higher costs basis attached, importers are cautious and largely holding the line on price given the current level of demand. White shrimp replacement pricing has strengthened sharply.

Reports suggest that it has become increasingly difficult to replace shrimp due to a supply imbalance overseas. Supplies of 4-6 and 6-8 shrimp have declined, along with 16/20 and smaller counts.

Fishing is almost done in Mexico, and demand remains lackluster. Larger sizes remain tight, and buyers hope that the last fishing trips produce these desired sizes.

The season is closed in Brazil, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The season in the Bahamas and Florida closed on March 31st. Inventory levels are under pressure as customers switch from very expensive Cold-Water Lobster to Spiny Lobster, though prices on Spiny Lobster still represent an excellent value. Short Term: Steady Pricing, trending to firm.

A short supply situation has developed due to a rather unproductive fall season and a robust Chinese demand for live lobster. We’re increasingly receiving out-of-stock reports from sellers, and what is available is being carefully allocated. There are no prospects for meaningful replacement until the Canadian Spring season kicks off in April. Short Term: Firm Price

Meaningful replacement is still months away and buyers are bidding-up to meet needs. Short Term: Firm to upward Pricing

Snow Crab season should begin in April. Load quantities will be available from all regions when it opens, until then smaller quantities are available for regular business. Short Term: Steady Price

Prices are stable on raw materials overseas. Due to slower demand and higher inventories for domestic Tuna, the market remains soft with lower prices. Prices are expected to start going up towards the summer months due to increased demand from grilling season. Short Term: Steady Pricing

Limited raw materials and higher freight costs have caused prices to firm up. Some packers were given lower anti-dumping rates making them eligible to sell to the USA market. Because there are more packers this year, prices should be restrained from rising much further. Short Term: Steady Pricing

The market for Keta Salmon has slightly increased due to the USA’s expanded ban on Russian seafood processed in other countries. Short Term: Price increasing

Prices for farm-raised salmon have reached a peak in Norway and Chile but are now beginning to soften. Short Term: Steady Pricing

Prices for farm-raised salmon have reached a peak in Norway and Chile but are now beginning to soften. Short Term: Steady Pricing

Tilapia prices have continued to increase as raw materials experience shortages. Supply of Tilapia will remain low until the end of the month when warm weather arrives, and spring harvest commences. Short Term: Prices increasing

The market for blue swimming crab meat continues full steady on colossal and jumbo lump as supplies of these sizes are adequate to barely adequate and higher offers are noted. Special and claw, on the other hand, are about steady to barely steady with a few lower offers noted. The remainder of the market is unchanged. Overall, mid-to-smaller sized crab offers range widely from seller to seller as individual inventory positions vary.

Nearby, milk output is seasonally steady to higher across the country, with some parts noting the start of spring flush volumes. This has kept plenty of cheap milk available to processors in the short run despite February’s milk production report showing a YOY decline of 1.3%. Recent reports have confirmed bird flu transmission in dairy cows in 6 states, but overall impacts to the national milk supply appear negligible at this point. Biosecurity measures are being enacted across the country, while the impact to cows is dramatically less severe than the impact on poultry. Higher butterfat content in the milk has kept cheap cream coming to market, and the reduced demand from maintenance downtimes has helped keep plenty of supply available.

The butter market pushed to new calendar year highs this week as end user fears around another year of short supply have prompted the recent jump in prices. However, prior rallies have struggled to push much higher given seasonally strong churn rates and the rebuilding of cold storage levels in the U.S. The updated Dairy Products report from Friday showed butter output up 2% from the prior year (after accounting for leap year) and reports throughout March would suggest a similar YOY increase next month. Nearby, the market is still noting extremely strong churn rates across the country and adequate to abundant cream availability as churns have been running essentially at capacity to take advantage. This month’s cold storage report was encouraging for butter supply, with February stocks growing at a seasonally stronger rate than normal (similar to January) and coming in above last year by 0.6%. Longer term, the much earlier than normal stockpiling interest is a headwind to lower prices, but if supplies continue to build to more comfortable levels the next few months then we may not need a retest of the highs from the last 2 years.

The cheese markets found renewed buying interest last week, pushing prices to 1-month highs. Longer term, competitive export prices in the U.S. will limit downside opportunity, but upside risk will be more dependent on domestic demand improving from more mundane levels in 2023. On Friday the USDA reported cheese production for February was -0.6% YOY (after accounting for leap year), with Cheddar continuing to be the least desirable production for producers coming in 7.2% below last year’s levels. There is still enough milk coming to market as some processors are already at capacity and upcoming maintenance downtimes should keep excess supply on the market. The updated cold storage report showed that cheese stocks remain burdensome, with February American style cheese clocking in at a near record and 2.9% above the large levels reported last year. Even with the lower production reported by the USDA , supplies are robust and more cheese capacity is scheduled to come online this year. Without an uptick in demand, stocks will continue to overhang the market.

The shell egg market was unchanged again this week as the loss of demand following the Easter weekend has been offset by renewed bird flu outbreaks. Last week saw two new HPAI outbreaks reported in Texas and Michigan (1.9 million layers each), further demonstrating the sensitivity to the spring migration season for wild birds. With seasonally slower demand, the availability of shell eggs should improve but tight levels nearby are providing some interim support. The USDA’s updated Chickens and Eggs report for February showed a counter seasonal increase of 1.7 million birds from last month, but flocks remain 1.1% lower than last year. However, better rate of lay from hens allowed shell egg output in February to exceed last year by 1.3% when adjusted for leap year. From a seasonal perspective, we are quickly approaching the time of year when prices start to feel the pressure from warmer temps and the loss of holiday and baking season demand. Cage free inventories saw an impressive 7.5% increase from the prior week, pushing back towards the higher end of the recent range. The need to build additional cage free production in the West should keep cage free values trading at a premium to conventional eggs.

Soybean oil remains trapped in a sideways pattern, but has traded back down towards the lower end of the range this week. Traders remain glued to the palm oil market for short term direction for now. Spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remain weak as domestic soybean oil stocks have risen by nearly 650 million pounds over the past four months and should now be near their seasonal peak. Maintenance downtimes at several large plants are expected to slow domestic soybean crush rate through the month of April, lowering oil output.

The spot canola seed futures is consolidating just below its recent highs as the market continues to take note of the outside palm and soybean oil values. Stronger canola export demand in Canada has kept prices from reverting towards their February contract lows. Refined canola oil basis levels remained steady last week and are currently trading at a modest premium to the refined soybean oil, with strong demand out West into Biofuel.

Palm oil futures made another new high for the move early last week but are starting to retrace some of the 28% rally since the beginning of the year as we enter the seasonal upswing in production. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report on April 15th. The average trade estimate for end of March palm oil stocks is at 1.792 million metric tons, down from 1.919 in February but still higher than the 1.674 million posted in March of 2023.

Green bell pepper harvesting will move to new growing regions on both coasts starting in late April. The Mexican (into Nogales, Arizona) and Florida seasons will continue through May. Red bell pepper supplies are adequate; markets are low. New crop transitioning will not occur until late May/early June.

Green Bells

• Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green Bell Peppers are available
• Mexican supplies are adequate despite being past peak production
  • Quality is average
  • Thin walls and shrivel during pack outs are occasional concerns
• The California desert season is starting this week
  • Limited quantities of crown picks are being harvested
  • Volume is low
  • Quality is excellent
• South Florida crops are winding down over the next couple of weeks; growers will start transitioning to Plant City this week
• Expect low prices this week due to overlapping regions in play

Red Bells

• MFC and ESS Red Bell Peppers are available
• Mexican volume is steady from Culiacan; quality is average
• Canadian greenhouse production is increasing
  • Quality is excellent
  • Large sizes dominate availability
• The California desert season will start in mid- to late May; growers anticipate ample stocks
• Expect weak markets this week

MFC Broccoli and ESS Cauliflower are readily available.

Broccoli

• California-grown quality is fair to good; light rains followed by warm weather has led to increased occurrences of pin rot/brown bead, bracketed structure, hollow core, and mildew pressure
• Overall supplies are abundant; prices are trending down
• Mexican-grown product is available for loading in South Texas, at lower FOB costs
• Suppliers are shipping ample supplies from both Northern and Central Mexico; quality is good due to dry, temperate weather
• Expect Mexican markets to remain at low levels through late April

Cauliflower

• Supply is tight in the Arizona-California desert region; suppliers have finished harvesting and transitioned to the Salinas and Santa Maria growing regions
• Quality issues are minimal but include dark spotting, mildew pressure, and off-color heads
• This week’s dry, temperate conditions have forced suppliers to cut ahead of available acreage and push markets higher in anticipation of tighter supplies
• Prices have risen quickly this week and will continue rising through the end of the week at minimum

Chile pepper markets are active, especially prices for the Jalapeno and Serrano varieties. Mexican supplies are extremely limited.

• Demand for Mexican chiles is strong; volume is low
• The Sinaloa region decreased production rapidly due to less acreage planted, overcast weather conditions, and water restrictions
• Sonora volume is low, while the Chihuahua region is experiencing some crop failures due to previous cold temperatures
• Production will start in the Baja and San Luis Potosi regions in early May
• Quality is average
  • Limited supplies of Jalapenos, Poblanos, and Cubanelles are being harvested in South Florida; quality is good
  • Growers in all growing areas are enacting the Act of God clause due to escalating markets
  • Prices will remain elevated over the next two weeks, especially with Cinco de Mayo quickly approaching

The majority of green leaf, iceberg, and romaine production is now in Salinas Valley, California. Limited supplies remain in Huron and Oxnard, California and are expected to be depleted by the end of the month.

• MFC Premium Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine are available; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed due to light weights
• Recent rain and cold weather, followed by warm temperatures, have increased quality issues
  • Anthracnose, a fungal disease favored by cool, wet weather is affecting many romaine lots to varying degrees
  • Dehydration, mildew, and sun scald are impacting iceberg; anthracnose has also been found in some fields
• Light weights are being observed industry-wide as crews peel down damaged outer leaves at harvest
• Iceberg and romaine markets are expected to continue rising this week; green leaf markets will be steady to slightly higher

Honeydew supplies remain tight; markets are climbing. Cantaloupe volume is average; prices are steady.

Cantaloupes

• Imported melons are arriving into domestic ports from Central America
• Quality ranges from fair to good; soft fruit, bruising, and inconsistent ripeness are occasional issues
• Stocks are dominated by 12- and 15-count sizes
• Expect steady markets for the next 7-10 days
• Domestic harvests will begin in the Arizona-California desert growing region starting the week of May 5

Honeydews

• Imported supplies are shipping from Mexico and Central America
  • West Coast arrivals are limited
  • Honduran yields are down
• Mexican supplies are tight but expected to increase over the next one to two weeks
• Quality ranges from good to fair; soft, overripe fruit, and bruising are occasional issues
• Supplies are currently dominated by six-count melons
  • Five- and eight-count melons are snug
  • Markon may continue to recommend sizing substitutions per availability
• Expect elevated markets to persist for the next one to two weeks
• Domestic harvests will begin in the Arizona-California desert growing region the week of May 13

Central Mexico is currently the main growing in North America. Hot weather has affected growers’ ability to harvest and diminished quality. Transportation is challenged due to delayed border crossing. Despite various challenges, the market should hold steady.

Blueberries

• Mexican supplies are ample
• Demand is steady; quality is good
• Slight dehydration is being reported due to high temperatures
• Pricing is set to inch down

Blackberries

• Yields are steady in Central Mexico
• Supplies are meeting demand
• Quality is very good; some over ripeness has been reported
• Expect markets to remain steady

Raspberries

• Mexican supplies are steady
• Production is starting in the Baja region
• Quality is good
• Expect supplies to increase
• Markets should remain steady

The Pacific Northwest storage onion season will wrap up early next week. Moving forward, fresh-run supplies will be shipped out of the California desert region. Fresh-run onions are also available in South Texas.

Pacific Northwest

• MFC Onions are available from Idaho, Oregon, and Washington
• Remaining storage supplies are mainly yellow; reds are extremely limited
• The season will end early next week

Texas

• Texas-grown MFC Yellow and Red Onions are available
• Mexican yellow and white onions are also crossing into South Texas
• Overall quality is very good; occasional bruising and mechanical damage are minor issues
• Yellow and white onion markets are lower; red onions are extremely tight with rising prices and strong demand
• Spring onions possess higher water content and lower acids, producing sweeter flavor but shorter shelf-life

California

• Southern California desert regions will start with shipping yellow and white onions early next week
• Expect elevated red onion prices as stocks are limited and demand is strong
• Quality is very good with some excess skin in early fresh crop lots

California Navel orange volume continues to decline; small sizes (113- and 138-count fruit) will remain extremely limited over the next two weeks. Suppliers have started harvesting new crop Valencia oranges in a limited way.

California  

• MFC and ESS Navel Oranges are available
• Overall supplies of 113- and 138-count sizes will remain extremely limited through the Navel season and into the Valencia season
• The Navel season is expected to end in three to four weeks
• Size and grade substitutions may be requested to fill orders for small sizes
• Growers have begun shipping limited quantities of California Valencia oranges
  • The season is expected to ramp up in late April
  • Large sizes (56- and 88-count oranges) are most prevalent
• Expect elevated markets and tight supplies

Mexico

• The Valencia orange variety (crossing into Nogales, Arizona) will be shipped until late June
• This crop is currently dominated by large-size oranges (56- through 88-count fruit)
• Quality is great with minimal scarring
• Expect steady prices and ample stocks

The pear market continues to rise; domestic supplies are diminishing. MFC D’Anjou Pears are available.

• Washington pear supplies are tighter this season compared to normal
  • D’Anjou and Bosc shortages are pushing up prices
  • Size profile is large (70- through 90-count fruit); 110-count and smaller sizes are limited
  • Flexibility on substitutions for a larger size may be necessary
  • Overall quality is very good
  • Expect limited stocks for rest of the season
  • Organic D’Anjou pears from Chile are being sourced to supplement domestic supply shortages
• Bosc and Golden Bosc pears are available through June
  • Size profile is small (110- to 135-count fruit)
  • Bosc pears will exhibit more elongated necks and brown russeting skin
  • Quality is very good; scarring is minimal

MFC Red and Yellow Potato supplies are tightening. Prices are expected to climb.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes will ship through July; volume is low
• Prices are rising
• New crop stocks will become available in late August

North Dakota

• Storage crop MFC Red Potatoes will be available through mid-May
• New crop red and yellow potatoes are expected to ship the first week of August

Florida

• New crop production will ramp up next week

Washington

• The storage season will wrap up at the end of April

California

• Red and yellow potato harvesting is expected to start in early May

Clear, warm weather is forecast for this week. No rain is being reported for the next 10 days. This will deepen berry color as well increase new growth.

Santa Maria/Oxnard, California

• Due to rain-related issues, packer label will be harvested up to April 17; MFC Strawberries will become available April 18
• Although current quality is great, green tips and misshapen berries are being reported
• Expect markets to remain high due to strong demand and current weather conditions; increased supplies are anticipated as weather improves

Salinas/Watsonville, California

• Production has started in Salinas/Watsonville
• Weather issues have made harvesting difficult; last weekend’s rain worsened conditions
• Quality has been fair; issues such as pin rot, soft shoulders, and green tip have been reported
• Expect markets to remain elevated
• MFC Strawberries will be shipped by early to mid-May

Western Mexico round tomato markets are rising this week. Florida’s tomato volume remains low as growers begin transitioning to the central regions of Ruskin and Palmetto. MFC Tomatoes are available.

• The Mexican growing region of Culiacan is past peak production
  • Round tomatoes are snug, especially large sizes (4×4 and 4×5)
  • Roma supplies are more plentiful; growers will starting production in Obregon this week
  • Markets are expected to increase along with demand for the Cinco De Mayo (May 5) holiday
  • Grape and cherry tomato production is steady; quality is mixed, depending on the grower
• Florida’s recent rainstorms have kept South Florida’s round, Roma, grape, and cherry tomato harvests light over the last month
  • Quality is average; small sizes are most abundant
  • The Central Florida region of Ruskin/Palmetto will begin limited production this week; light yields are anticipated this season due to heavy rainstorms affecting plant growth
• Expect higher prices of round and Roma tomatoes over the next two weeks