Market Outlook

Prices should find modest support through month-end, with the upcoming holidays lending a boost to retail demand, though foodservice continues to lag limiting upside.

Prices remain elevated relative to both year‑ago and five‑year averages, but further gains may be harder to achieve with values now running high compared with both Ribeyes and tenderloins. A test of last year’s peak looks likely in the coming months.

Prices look set to stay balanced into July, with no clear catalyst pushing the market firmly in either direction. Buyers are likely to resist chasing values higher this grilling season, holding the market on more neutral footing even as supplies tighten.

Prices should settle into a steadier pattern over the next several weeks, breaking from the usual seasonal climb. Retail demand for Tri Tips has been slow to build this summer, keeping the market below typical seasonal levels.

Prices have taken on a softer tone, with weak retail demand driving a sharp, contra-seasonal decline ahead of Independence Day grilling demand. Further losses may be limited in the weeks ahead, as low harvest rates and buyers finding value near current levels help support the market.

Prices have held steady in recent weeks but are poised to soften in July as seasonal trends reassert themselves. Strong foodservice demand tied to LTOs and promotions should help limit the extent of any decline in the months ahead.

Prices have taken on a softer tone, in line with seasonal trends. Foodservice buyers will likely turn more cautious in their purchasing in the weeks ahead, as demand remains uncertain.

Prices are expected to continue to display a weakening tone in the coming weeks, largely in line with seasonal trends. Retail demand will moderate once Fourth of July buying wraps up, while foodservice interest stays uneven at best.

Prices are projected to hold steady into July, consistent with seasonal trends. Lower slaughter rates will limit overall beef production, but modest foodservice demand for Inside Rounds should be enough to keep the market balanced.

Prices are expected to remain supported as quality ground product remains in strong demand heading into peak grilling season, with continued support from consumer trade-down over the next several months.

Prices will stay well-supported into the Fourth of July, with lean trimmings providing a solid floor. Strengthening retail demand should keep the market tone constructive through summer.

Mid‑sized WOG programs are holding steady, though discounting has become less consistent. Assessments for the 3–3.5 lb. and 3.5–4 lb. categories remain unchanged pending clearer market signals. The smallest and largest weight ranges also remain stable.

Stronger interest from Canada has supported firmer values for breast meat. Availability is limited, and offerings are generally held with a firm tone. Front halves are steady to full steady. Jumbo boneless breast values continue to vary depending on whether production is packed in boxes or combo bins, with boxed product typically commanding a premium and combo product trading at a slight discount. Medium and select breast meat is well cleared and rated steady. Tenders and chunk meat face softer demand, placing downward pressure on those categories. Trim meat continues to move inconsistently.

Jumbo wings are steady with limited inventories held firmly. Medium and small wings range from stable to slightly higher depending on region and demand.

Bone‑in back‑half items are generally well absorbed, though values remain irregular and appear to vary by region. Export activity is lighter but holding steady for now. Demand for thigh meat has declined sharply, leading to widespread discounting across the industry. Leg meat remains comparatively balanced due to its more favorable relative value.

Whole-body toms and hens begin the day with a firm, steady undertone. Demand is described as moderate, and sellers maintain a confident position with production that is only just adequate for current and forward needs. Consumer and institutional‑sized breasts remain well supported at established value levels, and these categories are rated steady pending further market developments.

Within the raw material complex, fresh and frozen breast meat and tenderloins continue to search for firmer market footing, with activity occurring at or below prevailing value levels. Early‑day trading is limited, and additional market feedback is being monitored. Spot demand for thigh meat is uneven, with buyers generally taking a cautious, deliberate approach. This category is assessed as barely steady to about steady.

Prices have begun to find support after slipping in recent weeks as soft foodservice demand weighed on values. While the seasonal pattern of firming prices in July is historically strong, softer demand from both foodservice and retail may cap any gains, barring major LTOs from QSR chains.

Prices will continue to trade sideways heading into July. Grilling season is providing a base level of demand support, but lighter retail featuring activity should keep the market more restrained.

Prices are likely to diverge from five-year averages as retail demand momentum carries beyond the Fourth of July buying window. Last week (06/12), spareribs were featured in 9,734 stores compared to just 5,034 stores during the same week last year.

Prices have pulled back in recent weeks, falling in line with seasonal trends. Retail featuring has been notably strong, potentially limiting further downside.

Prices are expected to maintain a steady-to-lower tone, weighed down by improved spot load availability and softer foodservice demand. A stronger Mexican peso should pave the way for higher shipments south of the border, more than offsetting weaker sales to Asia.

MMPA‑related uncertainty continues. Pricing remains high but stable, with potential for upward pressure.

The white shrimp market remains generally stable. Lower inbound costs from India are offsetting higher costs from Central America. Pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly lower, with fuel costs for sea freight limiting further reductions.

The black tiger shrimp market is stable overall, with some softening noted on headless shell‑on and smaller sizes. Pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly lower, with sea freight fuel costs preventing additional cost relief.

Pricing remains firm to slightly higher heading into Lent. Large sizes (U10–U8) continue to be tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions affecting key harvest areas.

The warm water lobster market has stabilized, with some softening in larger sizes. High‑volume sizes (5–8 oz) remain stable and are showing signs of upward pressure as supply tightens.

The market has stabilized at elevated levels, with tight supplies across all sizes.

Live cold water lobster pricing remains stable at elevated levels, with tight availability across all sizes.

Lobster meat remains stable at elevated levels, with tight supplies across all sizes.

Canadian snow crab is trending upward after reaching a seasonal low in May. Supply is expected to remain tight and costly during the off‑season. Some limited opportunities may emerge in September if inventories build.

Pricing has leveled off amid the continued absence of Russian product. Some sizes remain limited, but overall availability is adequate.

Pricing remains stable, though several producing countries are experiencing quality and consistency challenges.

The market remains stable, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

The market has leveled off and remains stable. Seasonal cost declines have not yet materialized, though opportunities continue to be monitored.

The market remains stable with no seasonal cost relief observed to date. Conditions continue to be monitored for potential opportunities.

Fresh salmon pricing remains stable. Seasonal declines have not yet appeared, though the market is being monitored for potential shifts.

Supply from Asia remains stable. Supply from South and Central America continues to be strained and remains a concern.

The market remains stable, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term forecast.

The scallop market remains firm, though some sizes have softened in demand recently. Quotas remain significantly lower than last year, suggesting any cost relief may be temporary.

Pricing continues to rise as global availability remains constrained. Key sizes and cuts are being allocated across major suppliers.

The season has ended with supply reaching only about 20% of expectations. Pricing and availability are expected to remain elevated until the B‑season begins in August or September.

The pollock market remains stable, with no significant changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

The season is fully underway. While boat pricing has eased slightly from the opener, overall pricing remains historically high, influenced largely by fuel costs.

Milk production remains impressive while warming temperatures across the country are bringing an end to the spring flush in the North. US milk production report showed a larger than expected increase in April, jumping 2.7% YOY as another 24k head were added this month from the initial March reports. This is the largest US herd since 1992 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The butter market rejected the highs set the previous week, and has pushed back towards its recent lows. This move is generating heavy order interest and should limit further downside in the short run. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard, requiring aggressive pricing to move product. When combined with the strong butterfat content in the milk, butterfat output was 3.2% higher YOY in April and keeping plenty of cream available for churns. Updated reports showed April butter output up 4.5% from last year. Cold storage levels for April remain 8.5% lower than last year and saw a smaller than expected build from March. Inventories should continue to improve as we are in the seasonal build time of year and producers are running strong to take advantage of increased cream supplies coming to market, but the tighter supplies have kept a floor under spot offers.

The block cheese market set fresh 3-month lows this week but continues to trade in a very narrow range as the cash markets continue to uncover order interest at the current levels. Updated demand data from the USDA confirmed the slower domestic offtake of American cheese, with April consumption -2.6% from last year. This weak demand was partially offset by exports increasing almost 7% YOY, but overall American cheese demand was -1.3% YOY in April. Overall US cheese output noted continued YOY growth of 1.7% in April while American and Cheddar output remained lower than the prior year (-1.2% and -3.5% respectively). The USDA’s Cold Storage report showed another healthy increase in stocks from March, with all cheese stocks for April coming in only 0.9% lower YOY and American cheese stocks -1.4% YOY. Despite the smaller stocks, slower demand of late has put the market at risk for a further build in stocks and why blocks continue to consolidate near the recent lows.

The shell egg markets finding balance into what is normally the weakest time of year. Renewed stockpiling interest has supported eggs off the multi-year lows set in early May, while rallies have struggled to maintain momentum as buyers consider the adequate amounts of eggs still coming to market. Even as we move into the slower summer demand period, prices should struggle to retest the recent lows as deteriorating producer margins trim flock sizes in the US. Also, the historically weak prices are driving additional order interest as lower retail shelf prices and value propositions to foodservice drive demand. Cage free eggs have remained near parity with the conventional market, with inventories of each contracting the past few weeks and approaching more historically reasonable levels. This is keeping the two markets attached at the hip for the moment. Cage free layers for May showed some growth as flocks were 710k head larger than the prior month as the historically small premium to conventional eggs continues to driver slower cage free conversion efforts.

The US-Iran agreement this week has increased optimism around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and pushed the energy markets lower. This has weighed on the soybean oil market as speculative funds exit their long positions, however the supportive biofuel mandates will keep some level of order interest beneath the market from end users. Current prices will start to limit imports, which will be needed to solve the 2026 biofuel mandates. Domestic soybean oil basis offers remain firm through Q3 as crushers look for tighter stocks ahead.

The July canola seed futures are pushing to fresh nearby lows this week, mirroring the movement in the soybean oil market. Canadian canola exports for their season to date now total 7.6 million metric tons, versus 8.7 million tons a year ago as they continue to crush heavily to increase their canola oil shipments to the U.S. RBD canola oil basis offers remain very firm out through Q3.

The spot palm oil futures are steady this week, helping to narrow the discount to soybean oil on the global cash market. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated their end of May palm oil stocks at 2.43 million metric tons, up from 2.309 million in April and compared to 1.983 million in May for 2025. Malaysian June 1 to 10 exports were up 3.5% from May 1-10 to 427,255 metric tons, driven by higher shipments to India.

East Coast green bell pepper production has slowed over the weekend, causing an upswing in the market. California green bells are in full production in the San Joaquin Valley. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• California’s San Joaquin Valley, the Bakersfield growing region, is in full production
  • Quality is very good
  • All sizes and grades are available
• Central Mexico has new summer crops in the state of Coahuila beginning this week
• South Georgia production slowed over the weekend due to recent rains; quality is mixed
• The North Carolina season will begin in 7 to 10 days
• Expect slightly higher markets due to increased demand

Red Bells

• California desert volume is moderate
  • Overall quality is very good as growers are starting the first picks of the last fields
  • The transition to Bakersfield will occur on June 29, possibly straining supply levels at that time
• Stocks are limited in South Georgia
• Canadian greenhouses have increased production
• Expect steady prices over the next week, then an upward trend in late June

Broccoli markets are expected to climb through June as industry supplies are tightening. MFC Broccoli is available in Salinas.

Salinas/Santa Maria

• Volume will fall for the second half of June
• Higher-than-average temperatures in Salinas are forecast through the weekend
• Quality ranges from average to good
  • Some smaller heads are being reported
  • Yellow beading is minimal
• Expect markets to inch up through late June

East Coast

• The Indiana season is underway
• Production will start in Maine and Canada in July
• Harvesting has ended in the Carolinas
• The New Jersey season will start in mid-July

Central Mexico (into South Texas)

• Quality is expected to deteriorate further in the coming weeks
• Weather challenges, including rain, storms, and heat fluctuations, are impacting quality
• Hollow core and pin rot are becoming more prevalent
• Markon Best Available Broccoli and packer label are being shipped

It’s peak California strawberry season. Supplies are ample, quality is excellent, and size is consistent due to ideal growing conditions. Expect weak prices.

Salinas/Watsonville

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Size is large; counts average 12 to 14 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Quality is good; occasional issues include bruising and white shoulders

Santa Maria

• Overall quality is good; some bruising and white shoulders have been reported
• Size ranges from small-medium to medium, averaging 18 to 22 berries per 1-pound clamshell
• Maintaining the cold chain is vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• The majority of strawberries are going to the frozen market due to the abundance of supplies

Expect extremely limited cantaloupe supplies for the next three weeks. MFC Cantaloupe Melons and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Cantaloupe Chunks are sporadic; packer label will be shipped as needed.

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Cantaloupe production, regardless of size, will be critically low until growers transition to new growing regions in July
• Some suppliers have issued Force Majeure on existing contracts
• Fields have been hit by unprecedented disease pressure this season; the warm winter has led to an increase in whitefly, which harms the plants’ ability to photosynthesize
• Markets will rise through the next few weeks as demand has rapidly outpaced supply

San Joaquin Valley, California

• The harvesting transition to new crop supplies will in begin early July
• Initial volume will be modest, but yields will ramp up quickly

Honeydew

• Honeydew supplies are adequate, which has kept pricing lower, but supplies are also diminishing

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho. Yellow potato prices are elevated; supplies are limited. Red potato markets are holding steady. Upcoming crop transitions will cause market volatility, but quality will improve over the next couple of months.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Red storage supplies are ample
• Yellow storage stocks will be depleted by next week; California supplies will be transferred to supplement orders
• Overall quality is good
  • Reds are exhibiting excellent internal quality with strong color and smooth skins
  • Yellow potatoes may possess late-season storage issues (pressure bruising and lenticels)
• Yellow prices are higher due to strong demand

California

• Red and yellow production continues out of Bakersfield
  • All sizes are available
  • Quality is good
  • The season will wind down in late June
• Stockton supplies will start shipping in early July
  • Acreage is down this year
  • Expect tight supplies and high markets by late July

• Red prices are steady; yellow markets are slightly higher

Arizona

• Red and yellow supplies are sufficient

• • Red color is light pink
  • Minimal skinning is being reported
• Markets are holding steady

Washington

• Red and yellow yields are average
• Late-season storage quality is fair, with reports of pressure bruising and lenticels
• Pricing continues to rise

Florida

• Harvesting will wrap up in Northern Florida next week; storage supplies will ship through mid-July
• Yields are sufficient for both colors, but demand is active for yellows
• Quality is good
  • Red color is light pink
  • Lenticels are occasional issues in yellow supplies
• Markets are stable, but red prices may climb as the season winds down

Upcoming regions

• The North Carolina season will start in late June
• Production will begin in Texas and Virginia in early July