Market Outlook

Prices will maintain a strong tone in the coming weeks, supported by typical seasonal strength and rising demand ahead of Memorial Day. Ongoing supply constraints are also lending support, with slaughter rates still running well below year-ago levels.

Prices are expected to remain steady over the next several weeks, consistent with normal seasonal trends. While demand should remain solid with grilling season underway, consumers may increasingly shift purchases toward better-value middle meats.

Prices are expected to remain steady through May, bucking the typical seasonal price increase seen at this time of year. While tenderloin prices remain competitive compared to other middle meats, overall demand has been constrained as consumers continue to prioritize value, limiting potential for significant price gains.

Prices are expected to remain strong in the coming weeks, driven by the typical seasonal increase as summer approaches. Tri-Tip demand continues to grow, attracting more attention from both grilling enthusiasts and the foodservice sector.

Prices are expected to hold firm heading into June, despite the typical seasonal trend toward steady to lower values. In the weeks ahead, retail buyers are likely to focus on value-driven beef options, with Top Butts standing out as an attractive choice outside of the ground beef category.

Prices will continue to display a strong tone in the coming weeks, respecting seasonal price trends for this time of year. Brisket demand remains robust across both retail and foodservice sectors, helping to sustain prices amid limited available supply.

Prices are expected to remain strong heading into June, in line with typical seasonal trends. The foodservice sector will continue to bid aggressively amid limited supply, helping to keep prices well-supported.

Prices are expected to strengthen through the end of May, in line with typical seasonal trends. Solid export interest and increased retail featuring will help sustain strong demand and keep prices well supported.

Prices are projected to stabilize heading into June, supported by typical seasonal trends. Recent declines have created a strategic buying opportunity, allowing purchasers to secure supplies ahead of a potential rise in export demand, which could further tighten availability.

Prices will begin to firm over the coming weeks as rising demand prompts processors to pay more for grinding-quality product. Retailers will continue promoting ground chuck to draw grilling customers to the meat case.

Prices are expected to strengthen into June, supported by steady seasonal demand. With boneless/skinless chicken breasts trading near record highs and supplies limited, foodservice operators are likely to shift promotions toward ground beef, helping to maintain firm price levels.

WOG demand remains stable overall, with traditional retail channels continuing to draw typical volumes. While there are some indications of tighter availability for smaller-sized WOGs, overall production levels remain sufficient to meet demand. Breasts and front halves are clearing well. Strong demand from deboning operations for white meat is keeping spot market opportunities limited.

Boneless product availability is sufficient for most buyers. Some report stronger-than-anticipated demand following Mother’s Day, while others are experiencing a slight slowdown. Overall, transactional data remains aligned with quoted values, indicating a supportive market environment. Tenders are somewhat more accessible than in recent weeks, though processors with spot loads continue to maintain confidence in their premium-level pricing.

Processors remain firm on premium-level asking prices. In the wing market, demand has rebounded for medium and jumbo sizes, aside from a few isolated surplus areas. These sizes continue to provide strong value on the front half of the bird. Chunk and trim meats are also moving well, with steady pricing and consistent clearance.

On the back half of the bird, domestic demand for deboning continues to absorb most whole legs and leg quarters, limiting spot market availability. Drums are more readily available as a byproduct, though sellers are still securing premium pricing on fresh production. Export demand remains active but inconsistent, with higher bids appearing sporadically. Thigh and leg meats are becoming more prevalent in the market, with pricing trends showing increased stability.

Frozen whole turkeys are seeing increased buyer interest as the industry begins to prepare for the fall season. This growing demand is placing added pressure on an already constrained market, pushing prices higher. While many buyers anticipate making purchases later in the year, current shipments are being secured at premium levels. Activity in the fresh whole turkey market remains limited, with few spot transactions reported. Supply of both consumer- and institutional-sized breasts is also tight, as most production is being allocated to parts and raw material applications.

Export buyers continue to struggle to find frozen breast meat, leading to higher bids being reported, while a limited number of sellers trade frozen breast meat domestically at market-related premiums. Meanwhile, fresh breast meat activity is increasing as the school year ends and deli season begins. Availability remains tight overall, with pricing varying as some sellers move production at steady market values and others push prices higher. However, production often falls short of demand, and many buyers are willing to pay premium prices to secure supply.

Prices are expected to remain strong in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal trends. Robust retail demand, expected to strengthen further heading into Memorial Day, is likely to more than compensate for reduced promotional activity in the foodservice sector.

Prices are expected to display a neutral tone through the end of the month, diverging from the typical seasonal trend. A decline in demand from Asian export buyers, combined with higher production levels, should counterbalance the surge in demand driven by grilling season.

Prices are expected to remain rangebound through May, as the typical seasonal price increase for early summer has yet to materialize. While overall demand has been slow to pick up, it’s anticipated to gain momentum as we approach peak grilling season, supported by current price levels.

Prices are expected to strengthen over the next few weeks, fueled by the typical seasonal trend leading into early summer. Increased retail promotions are likely to continue as we approach barbecue season.

Prices will remain balanced going into June, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Export demand for bone-in hams remains strong, with shipments to Mexico significantly outpacing last year’s levels. Meanwhile, supplies of boneless hams remain adequate, supported by moderate domestic demand.

The market for blue swimming crabmeat remains largely unchanged, though the undertone is highly unsettled due to the announcement of universal tariffs and the subsequent delay of reciprocal tariffs for many Southeast Asian countries. Many stakeholders are adopting a wait-and-see approach, as universal tariffs took effect on April 5th, while reciprocal tariffs have been delayed until July 9th. Overall, supplies in the U.S. are adequate, and demand remains mostly moderate. Many market participants continue to monitor individual inventory positions closely. Overall, the market trend is steady, with some uncertainty driven by tariff-related factors.

The shrimp market showed selective price increases, while the broader market remains steady to firm. Sellers are navigating the balance between higher replacement costs and a domestic market still adjusting to these increases. The additional financial strain from tariff bond requirements adds further complexity to the cost structure. Overall, the market trend is steady to firm, with rising costs and tariff challenges continuing to put pressure on prices.

Values increased across all categories due to limited availability and steady demand. The value added segment also showed strength, driven by tight replacement conditions. Overall, the market trend is firm, supported by constrained supply and consistent demand.

Values increased, driven by a firm market bias and reports of limited landings. The availability of large shrimp remains extremely constrained.

Prime-sized warm-water lobster tails, particularly those weighing between 5 to 9 ounces, are witnessing strong demand, resulting in firm pricing attributed to the limited seasonal availability of these sizes. Conversely, larger sizes are facing price reductions as sellers offer discounts to stimulate buyer interest, indicating a softer demand in this segment. Pricing is up for smaller sizes and stable for larger sizes.

Cold-water lobster tail prices have come under downward pressure driven by ample inventory levels and a cautious buying stance among purchasers. This trend reflects a broader market environment in which sellers are adjusting pricing strategies to encourage demand amid abundant supply. While immediate availability remains stable, the recent implementation of tariffs introduces potential risks that may impact future market dynamics, trade relations, and the overall economic health of industry participants. Pricing is Stable could increase with Tariffs

Prices have increased as catch volumes remain insufficient to meet strong demand from both foodservice and retail sectors. Growth is being driven by value-added products and direct-to-consumer sales channels. Export demand, especially from Asia and Europe, continues to be robust. Additionally, sustainability considerations and regulatory pressures are increasingly influencing market strategies.
Long-term: The market will likely remain volatile, influenced by harvest yields, trade policies, and global seafood demand trends.

Uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian seafood has caused delays in the snow crab fishing season, particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador, with price negotiations between local processors and fishermen paused pending clarity on trade policies. Tight supplies resulting from quota reductions and delayed fishing have led to initial price surges, followed by recent declines as new landings approach. Stakeholders are advised to remain vigilant, closely monitor policy developments, and consider diversification strategies to effectively navigate this evolving market. Overall, pricing trends are upward.

The U.S. Ahi (yellowfin) tuna supply remains constrained due to global shortages and fishing restrictions, driving prices higher amid scarcity and the impact of new tariffs. Additionally, consumer demand is increasingly shaped by health and sustainability considerations. Stakeholders should closely monitor regulatory developments and market dynamics to effectively navigate this evolving environment. Pricing is currently stable but may increase if demand intensifies.

Pangasius availability remains stable; however, rising farm-gate prices in Vietnam are emerging as buyers increasingly shift away from China. Potential U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese pangasius represent a significant factor that could drive prices higher and affect availability in the U.S. market in the coming months. In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable, with the potential for further increases.

The Keta salmon market currently exhibits stable availability, with prices generally moderate relative to other wild salmon varieties. Although specific tariff impacts on Keta salmon are not detailed, broader shifts in seafood trade may indirectly influence the market. Keta salmon continues to be favored for its firm texture, mild flavor, and culinary versatility. In the short term, prices are expected to remain steady.

The Chilean salmon market is experiencing moderate production forecasts and stable pricing but faces considerable challenges from potential U.S. tariffs and ongoing domestic regulatory issues. While traditional export markets remain key, there is growing focus on expanding into non-traditional regions such as Australia. The industry is also addressing the need to improve sustainability practices and public perception. Overall, pricing remains stable.

Supply remains robust, continuing to exert downward pressure on prices. Despite lower prices, Norwegian salmon exports have shown strong growth, especially to the U.S., where the value of salmon exports increased by 47% year-over-year in Q1 2025. The U.S. has maintained its position as the top market for Norwegian seafood for the fourth consecutive month. In the short term, prices are expected to remain steady.

The tilapia market continues to experience steady growth, supported by its affordability, versatility, and appeal to health-conscious consumers. In the United States, rising demand is driven by tilapia’s lean protein content and adaptability across diverse cuisines, including Asian and Latin American dishes. Currently, the U.S. wholesale market for tilapia fillets remains stable, with frozen tilapia prices holding steady. Looking ahead, concerns persist over tighter raw material supplies, potential tariffs, and cost increases following the Chinese New Year. In the short term, pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly increasing.

Catfish supply remains adequate; however, increasing pressure is emerging as some buyers shift toward domestic products in response to tariff impacts. Additionally, summer heat is affecting fish growth and sizing, with early indications of reduced growth rates observed in pond sizes. These factors, combined with typical seasonal challenges, are contributing to upward pressure on prices.

The scallop harvest is trending upward, with larger hauls than initially anticipated. Early spawning has led to some softness in the catch, including a significant presence of pumpkin/orange scallops, which are prized for their sweetness. Consequently, pricing for drier scallops remains mixed, while softer scallops are attracting lower prices. Overall, quality is good, and pricing is expected to improve over the coming month.

Weekly milk production reports are seasonally strong across the majority of the country given spring flush, while the Southern states are already past peak levels. California continues to trend higher amid slowing HPAI outbreaks. More normalized milk levels, larger herd sizes than last year and strong milk components are helping keep adequate supply coming to market. Nearby demand has stabilized after a strong start to the year, helping keep spot offers well below class and below year ago levels. On the cream side, record milk fat tests have continued to bring an abundance of cream to the market as supplies are readily available.

The butter market remains in consolidation mode and well within the past month’s range. Solid production schedules and cheap cream availability continue to limit just how expensive butter needs to be at this time of year. Butter production in March came in 8.6% higher than last year and has kept large amounts of butter coming to market. However, even with churns running near capacity in the US, cold storage inventories this past month were only 2.6% higher than last year and highlight solid demand so far this year. Recent reports suggest this trend of stronger production and stocks should continue in the coming months as milk supply out West normalizes from the HPAI impacts this past fall/winter. March exports noted another large uptick in sales, while forward sales will likely face some headwinds amid ongoing tariff uncertainty.

The cheese markets have found support this past week amid strong export sales and renewed order interest. Weakness in the US Dollar and competitive prices have encouraged strong exports, while expectations for larger production and only steady domestic offtake are limiting further upside nearby. Also helping limit upside risk is the rebuilding supply situation in the US.  With peak spring flush levels at hand and cheese production/stocks still ramping up from low levels last year, there should be adequate supply into the summer. Domestic cheese demand has been limited across both retail and foodservice as consumer confidence deteriorates.  March production data showed all cheese output +1.4% vs. last year.  American and cheddar output were even higher, coming in at +4.6% and +5.4% respectively.  The market is still in transition as increased production is starting to come online and supplies look to recover from historically tight levels.

The shell egg prices resumed their lower trend this past week, with cage free prices leading the charge.  The slower pace of HPAI outbreaks has helped push supplies back into better balance, along with the favorable margin structure helping rebuild laying flocks. The smaller flocks are still limiting the amount of egg coming to market, but it appears we have finally reached supply/demand equilibrium for the moment.  Domestic order interest has been solid so far this spring and is limiting large scale weakness nearby.  The USDA released updated flock sizes, with laying hen totals as of April 1st coming in at 286.6 million.  This is basically unchanged from last month and the smallest US flock since the HPAI outbreaks of 2015. Longer term, producer margins are still solid due to the lower YOY feed costs and historically firm shell egg values, and should drive further flock expansion in 2025. Cage free layers in April were essentially unchanged from March as HPAI outbreaks have remained calm in key cage free states and producers reevaluate flock needs.

Soybean oil futures are pulling back from calendar year highs set earlier this week after news stories broke signaling a smaller than expected increase in biofuel mandates for 2026 and 2027. highs as energy prices have softened, putting pressure on biofuel margins. Export demand has slowed dramatically as S. American basis values are well below US offers and palm remains at a soy oil. The stocks situation is still historically tight, but prices are correcting off their recent highs and finding further pressure from weak energy prices as well.

Canola seed futures are following the soybean complex lower this week. Statistics Canada estimated their total canola stocks as of March 31st at 5.9 million metric tons, down almost 40% from last year while better weather conditions in the Canadian prairies are expected this week for canola planting. RBD canola oil basis offers remain firm through Q3.

Palm oil futures are stabilizing near their recent lows as seasonal production gains in both Malaysia and Indonesia have been weighing on the market. The market has dropped nearly 20% from its 2025 peak now. The Malaysian Palm Oil Association is looking for a nearly 20% increase in production for April vs. March.

Prices are inching down. While Mexico’s Caborca season has ended, production has transitioned to the Baja Peninsula. Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available.

Mexico

• Although Baja quality is strong, this is a short season that bridges the gap from Caborca to Central Mexico
• Expect prices to ease through May and early June as more supplies come online and demand from the Easter and Mother’s Day holidays wanes
• Under the existing U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), Mexican asparagus is not being targeted for additional tariff enforcement

Peru

• Yields are low and quality is poor following high temperatures
• Production will shift to the north of the country this month
• Mother’s Day flower demand has restricted availability for asparagus air/boat freight
• Peru remains a target for additional tariff action by the Trump administration; expect higher FOB pricing in Miami/East Coast ports as a result

U.S. and Canada

• The Pacific Northwest season is in full swing in Idaho and Washington
• Growers will start harvesting in Michigan and Southern Canada this week
• California and South Carolina production is limited
• Expect increased supplies out of multiple regions to further contribute to lower markets by late May through mid- to late June

Blueberry supplies are slowly increasing in California and Georgia. Expect prices to ease over the next two weeks.

• The Mexican season is past its peak; production is rapidly decreasing, and is expected to end in late May
• Georgia yields will climb this week
• California’s San Joaquin Valley season has started in a limited manner
• Florida volume is down 40% compared to this time last year; the season will wrap up in two weeks
• Expect slowly declining pricing as production continues to increase in Georgia and California

California

• MFC Premium Broccoli is being harvested in California’s Salinas and Santa Maria Valleys
• Markets are steady at low levels amid tepid demand
• Strong supply levels are forecast for the next two weeks
• Quality is good; brown bead/pin rot, yellowing, hollow core, branching, and insect pressure are minimal
• Expect domestic prices to remain mostly steady at low levels through mid-May

Mexico

• Mexican-grown MFC Premium Broccoli continues to ship into South Texas
• This market is more volatile than domestic, although prices remain comparable in both regions
• Quality is good; sporadic hollow core following high heat and mechanical damage from packing oversized heads have been noted

East Coast

• Georgia production will run through May
  • Quality is very good
  • Markets are steady at average levels
• The North Carolina season starts this week and will continue well into June

Rising heat and persistent labor issues have kept markets extremely elevated. MFC and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Brussels Sprouts are limited.

• High temperatures are reducing supplies and limiting harvests in Mexico
• The season is past its peak production and entering the hottest months of the year
  • The majority of supplies are being harvested in Mexico at this time, severely limiting availability
  • Hot weather is leading to quality problems such as discoloration, yellow leaves, seeder/elongated sprouts, and reduced value-added shelf-life
• The Oxnard, California season has started in a limited manner; acreage is minimal
• Jumbo sprouts are extremely scarce, as growers must harvest at earlier stages to fill current demand and prevent additional quality issues that may develop with additional days in the ground
• Low volume and elevated prices will persist through the next three to four weeks; expect relief in late June or early July when the Salinas season begins

The California Navel season is projected to wrap up in late June. California Valencia production has started in a limited manner. Expect elevated prices through the transition.

Navels

• MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Navel Oranges are available
• Small oranges (113- and 138-count sizes) will be limited through the rest of the Navel season
• Size and grade substitutions may be requested to fill orders
• Late-season Navel varieties will remain available until mid- to late June
• Quality is good; sugar levels range from 10 to 12 Brix

Valencias

• MFC and ESS Valencia Oranges are available
• Suppliers have begun shipping limited quantities; the season is expected to ramp up in late June
• Large fruit (56- and 88-count sizes) will be limited to start the season; small oranges (113- and 138-count sizes) will be more plentiful
• Early production will require no gassing as color is ideal; expect gassing in July/August when Valencias start to regreen from high heat
• Quality is very good; sugar levels range from 12 to 14 Brix

Central American cantaloupe and honeydew volume is starting to decrease as the offshore melon season winds down.

Cantaloupe

Central America

• Volume is decreasing
• Remaining supplies are dominated by large/9-count fruit; smaller/12- to 15-count sizes are limited
• The offshore cantaloupe season will finish the week of May 26
• Expect steady markets over the next 7-10 days

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Desert harvests will start in a limited manner the week of May 12; more growers will start production the following week
• Cooler weather has impacted growth and delayed initial harvests by several days; growers expect small fruit size early in the season
• Initial prices are expected to be slightly lower than offshore fruit

Honeydew

Central America/Mexico

• Central American supplies are limited; delayed shipments are causing occasional quality issues
• Remaining supplies are dominated by large/five-count size fruit; smaller/6- to 8-count sizes are limited
• The Central American offshore honeydew season will wrap up the week of May 26
• Expect steady prices over the next 7-10 days
• Mexican volume is steady at slightly lower prices, helping offset demand for offshore fruit

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Domestic desert harvests will begin in a limited manner the week of May 19, with more growers starting production the week of May 26
• Initial prices are expected to be slightly lower compared to offshore fruit

Cucumber prices are weak. Supplies are average in Mexico, while East Coast growers are transitioning from Florida to Georgia. MFC Cucumbers are available.

• The Florida season is winding down, tightening supplies
• Georgia production has started; volume is climbing and quality is very good
• Mexico yields are steady out of the Sonora and Baja growing regions
• Expect low prices over the next two weeks

Strawberry supplies are ample; demand remains strong this week.

Oxnard/Santa Maria, California

• MFC Strawberries are available
• The forecast calls for clear, mild weather for the rest of the week
• Quality is good; some green shoulders have been reported
• Size is medium (16-24 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell)
• The Oxnard and Santa Maria seasons are past their peaks; volume will start to decline
• Expect markets to ease as Mother’s Day pull ends

Salinas/Watsonville

• Harvesting and shipping will begin May 12; MFC Strawberries will be available
• Size is large (10-14 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell)
• Defects include light bruising due to size and a few white shoulders
• Expect markets to decline as Mother’s Day pull ends

The California stone fruit season is approaching; volume will ramp up in early June.

Peaches

• The California season will run from mid-May to mid-September
• Fruit will begin shipping the week of May 12
• Good quality is forecast with sugar levels ranging between 11 and 13 Brix; sweetness/flavor will peak in late June
• The Georgia peach season will begin in mid-May and continue through August

Nectarines

• The season will run from late May through mid-September
• Fruit will begin shipping the week of May 19
• Good quality is forecast with sugar levels ranging from 10 to 12 Brix

Plums

• The California season will run from early June to mid-October
• Fruit will begin shipping the week of June 2
• Expect good quality