Market Outlook

Prices are expected drift sideways as we move into June, mirroring what we typically see this time of year. Grocers haven’t shown much urgency in stepping up their ribeye programs ahead of grilling season, and the foodservice side isn’t offering much lift either.

Prices will firm up heading into June, building on the momentum carried over from recent weeks. While seasonal demand lends underlying support, persistently high values for premium beef cuts will keep prices elevated.

Prices should stay well above year-ago levels but hold range-bound in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal patterns, lifted by strong retail featuring and inelastic demand from select foodservice segments amid limited supply.

Prices are expected to hold firm as June approaches, consistent with the usual seasonal trends in which prices peak around mid-month. Persistent supply constraints, combined with strengthening demand from retail and foodservice channels, should keep underpinning the market over the coming weeks.

Prices should hold firm in the coming weeks, supported by strong retail demand and limited uncommitted supplies. But with domestic buyers reluctant to push prices much higher, the market looks range-bound in early summer.

Brisket prices appear poised to level off after rising in recent weeks on reduced beef output and strong retail demand for seasonal grilling, and with buyers unlikely to push the market significantly higher from here, trade is expected to settle into a more range‑bound pattern in the months ahead.

Prices will continue to stabilize and find support after an abrupt selloff, with buyers having stepped back from flap meat following the recent run-up in favor of other beef items.

Prices will shift back to a more moderate tone in the coming weeks, trading independently of seasonal trends. Buyers have been pulling back from the elevated Skirt Meat prices seen in May, which should usher in a more neutral price tone come June.

Prices should continue to stabilize into June, consistent with the typical seasonal pattern. The recent dip has created a strategic buying window, offering purchasers a chance to secure supplies at attractive levels.

Prices will stay firm and well above both year-ago and five-year averages, buoyed by growing demand for quality ground product heading into grilling season. As consumers lean into burgers and other warm-weather staples, keeping values elevated in the weeks ahead.

Prices should hold a firm tone over the coming weeks, in line with seasonal patterns. Elevated lean trimmings values will keep lending support, particularly as retail demand builds.

WOGs continued to trade steadily, with moderate demand meeting limited but sufficient supply. Market activity was consistent, and overall conditions reflected equilibrium without notable volatility.

The boneless breast market was mixed. Jumbo breasts faced downward pressure due to ample supply and slower post‑holiday demand, prompting some sellers to adjust offers. Medium breasts tested current value levels for support, while select sizes remained comparatively tight. Tenderloins held a mostly steady tone, though spot availability became more noticeable than in recent weeks.

Wing markets closed the period on a generally steady footing. Increased inquiries from wing-focused buyers and distributors strengthened seller confidence, though these developments did not materially shift market values.

Back‑half items continued to benefit from a supportive market. Bone‑in legs and thighs were well‑cleared, with steady movement into further‑processing and deboning channels. Leg quarters remained balanced with adequate supply and moderate demand. Drumsticks held a steady tone, supported by retail interest, while both leg meat and thigh meat saw active demand amid limited spot availability.

The whole‑bird turkey market is volatile but slow in actual movement, with sellers working to clear inventories while buyers aggressively seek limited whole‑bird production. Frozen whole turkeys continue to firm as buyers pay premiums to secure product. Breast inventories remain tight, and most other lines are holding steady to firm.

Turkey breast meat—both export‑destined and domestic—is trading at sharply lower values as sellers discount to move excess production. Fresh and frozen tom breast meat assessments continue to decline, reflecting heavier production and unusually light demand. Lower demand is also pressuring tenders and thigh meat, which are trading at reduced levels.

Prices should begin to stabilize as pork follows typical seasonal declines heading into peak bacon and BLT demand. The recent pullback has created value opportunities for retail and foodservice buyers, encouraging more active purchasing, though overall demand—particularly from QSRs—remains soft enough to limit the strength of any potential rebound.

Prices are expected to firm in the coming weeks, consistent with typical seasonal trends for this time of year. Greater retail featuring of loin cuts has helped lift demand, providing solid price support across the category.

Prices are projected to hold a firm tone heading into June, driven by rising demand from grilling season and the upcoming summer holidays.

Prices will stay firm over the next several weeks, in line with normal seasonal patterns. Tightening product availability, paired with rising retail demand fueled by greater consumer interest in grilling and smoking, will keep lending strong support to the market.

Prices will hold steady heading into June, in line with the usual seasonal pattern. Export demand for bone-in hams remains strong, with shipments to Mexico moving at a healthy clip. Boneless ham supplies are sufficient, reflecting sluggish domestic demand.

Pricing remains high but stable as regulatory uncertainty continues to influence supply dynamics.

The market remains steady as lower‑cost imports from India offset higher costs from Central America. Pricing is expected to hold or ease slightly, though elevated fuel costs continue to limit downward movement.

Overall stability continues, with some softening noted in headless shell‑on product and smaller sizes. Pricing is expected to remain steady or drift slightly lower, constrained by freight‑related cost pressures.

Prices remain firm to slightly higher heading into Lent. Large sizes are extremely limited due to regulatory restrictions affecting key fishing areas.

The market has stabilized, with some softer pricing emerging on larger sizes. Core foodservice sizes remain steady and may strengthen as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at elevated levels, with tight supply across all size ranges.

Live product pricing remains firm and stable, supported by tight availability across the board.

Lobster meat pricing is steady at high levels, with supply remaining constrained.

Snow crab pricing is trending upward as supply tightens heading into the off‑season.

Prices have leveled off amid ongoing absence of Russian supply. Some sizes remain limited, but product is available.

Market conditions remain steady, though several producing countries are experiencing quality and consistency challenges.

The market is stable with no anticipated changes in near‑term pricing.

Frozen salmon pricing has stabilized and is expected to soften slightly toward month‑end.

Market conditions are steady, with potential for slight softening later in the month.

Fresh salmon pricing has leveled off and may ease modestly as the month progresses.

Supply from Asia is stable, while South and Central American availability remains strained, limiting overall improvement.

The market remains steady with no significant pricing changes expected.

Scallop pricing is firm overall, though some sizes have softened due to lighter demand. Reduced quotas limit the likelihood of sustained cost relief.

Prices continue to rise as global supply remains tight, with key sizes being allocated by major suppliers.

With the season ending and supply far below expectations, pricing is elevated and likely to remain high until the next season begins.

The pollock market is steady with no expected changes in pricing.

The season is active, and while boat prices have eased slightly from the opener, overall pricing remains historically high due to elevated fuel costs.

Milk production remains impressive while warming temperatures across the country are bringing an end to the spring flush in the North. US milk production report showed a larger than expected increase in April, jumping 2.7% YOY as another 24k head were added this month from the initial March reports. This is the largest US herd since 1992 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The butter market is seeing large buying activity as prices pushed back to their lowest levels since late January, limiting downside opportunity. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard. This has been magnified by the strong butterfat within the milk, pushing plenty of cream onto the market. The USDA confirmed the elevated production levels as updated data showed March butter output up 1.2% from the prior year . However, the cheaper prices earlier this year did support better domestic and global demand, keeping US cold storage levels limited and -8.5% YOY (April).

The block cheese market put in fresh new lows this week, setting back to its lowest levels since February as recent reports suggest plentiful supplies and less optimistic demand prospects.  With plenty of milk coming to market, cheese production is expected to remain near its record highs and keep comfortable amounts of product coming to market.  The USDA’s Cold Storage report showed another healthy increase in stocks from March, with all cheese stocks for April coming in only 0.9% lower YOY and American cheese stocks -1.4% YOY.  Despite trailing year ago levels, slower domestic and international interest of late has put the market at risk for a further build in stocks and why blocks remain on the defensive. March cheese output up 1.2% from the prior year and set a new record for the month.

The shell egg markets are in a state of flux as the market searches for balance into what is normally the weakest time of year. Renewed stockpiling interest has supported eggs off the multi-year lows set the earlier in the month, but those rallies ran out of steam last week as buyers moved to the sidelines. The markets appear to be finding a better supply/demand balance, with reported trading ranges tracking closer with reported values vs. larger discounts seen in April. Even as we move into the slower spring/summer demand period, prices should struggle to retest the recent lows as deteriorating producer margins trim flock sizes in the US. Overall flocks are still more than adequate as updated monthly flock data showed the US table egg laying flock as of May 1st at 306.89 million head, down a seasonally small 360k head from last month and still +3.8% YOY. Updated cage free layers for April showed little movement as flocks were only 172k head larger than the prior month as the historically small premium to conventional eggs continued to slow further cage free conversion efforts.

Soybean oil futures back at the upper end of the relatively subdued range seen so far in May. The market is struggling to push higher amid increased confidence in some sort of a US – Iran agreement. However, the supportive biofuel mandates will keep some level of order interest beneath the market and has led to more divergence between the edible oil market and energies. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remain firm through Q3 as crushers look for tighter stocks ahead.

The July canola seed futures moved back to the upper end of its recent range this week as traders continue to monitor less than ideal planting conditions thus far in Canada. RBD canola oil basis offers continued to move higher on solid demand.

The nearby palm oil futures moved modestly higher this week but remain at a substantial discount to soybean oil. Indonesia will exempt some refined palm oil products from its planned centralization of commodity exports, a senior government minister said. Under a policy announced last week, exports of palm oil must go through a state company, with a transition phase expected to start from June 1.

Mexico’s main avocado crop is tightening; growers are delaying harvests to prolong the season until the Loca season begins in July. California and Peruvian stocks will be shipped to help fill orders.

Mexico

• Expect limited supplies of the main crop as the season winds down
• Dry matter in the main crop ranges from 35-38%, which is common towards the end of the season
  • This higher percentage of dry matter causes fruit to ripen at a faster pace than normal
  • Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• New crop Loca crop supplies will not enter the market until July
• The Loca crop is known for its lower dry matter and smaller sizes
• Mexican avocados account for 83% of U.S. demand
• Size, grade, and Country of Origin substitutions may be requested to fill orders
• Expect elevated markets and tight supplies through June

California

• Expect lower volume as California helps fill the void from Mexico
• The California season is past its peak and will wind down in late July
• California avocados account for 10% of the U.S. demand
• Size and grade substitutions may be requested to fill orders
• Expect high prices and low yields through June

Peru

• Volume is low
• The Peruvian season will run through August
• Peruvian avocados account for 7% of the U.S. demand; most is program business

The Watsonville/Salinas growing region received more rain than was expected. Most supplies are not meeting Markon First Crop (MFC) specifications; packer label berries will be substituted due to wet fruit and mud on cartons.

Salinas/Watsonville

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Berry size is large; counts average 12 to 16 pieces per 1-pound clamshell
• Approximately half an inch of rain fell yesterday
• Quality is fair; issues include softness, bruising, white shoulders, and light pin rot
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Expect strong demand and elevated markets through next week

Santa Maria/Oxnard

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Size ranges from small-medium to medium (18 to 22 berries per 1-pound clamshell)
• This region received less rain than Salians/Watsonville, closer to .10 inches
• Overall quality is good; some bruising and white shoulders have been reported
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Prices will remain elevated for the next 7-10 days

Cantaloupe and honeydew supplies are tightening; expect higher prices for the rest of June as the crop transitions to new growing regions. MFC Cantaloupe is available. MFC Honeydew is limited.

Cantaloupe

Central America

• The offshore season has ended

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Yields have started to decline in the Arizona-California desert region; Arizona harvesting will end in two to three weeks
• Mosaic virus has been present in fields, which has reduced growth and negatively affected volume
• Size has shifted to smaller fruit, with 12- and 15-count melons the most prevalent
• Expect markets to rise through June until California’s San Joaquin Valley season gets underway in early July

San Joaquin Valley, California

• Harvesting is on track to begin in early July
• Overall supplies may tighten significantly during the transition between growing regions

Honeydew

Central America

• The offshore season has ended

Mexico

• Light production will continue for the next two weeks
• Volume is much lower than domestic-grown fruit

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Production is steady; six-count fruit is most common
• Overall quality is good, but some scarring may be present
• Total volume will start to decline over the next two to three weeks; Arizona harvesting will end in mid-June
• Markets will gradually rise as supplies diminish through June and growers transition to California’s San Joaquin Valley

San Joaquin Valley, California

• This season will begin in early July
• Supplies may be limited during the transition period

Domestic production has slowed slightly; harvesting is wrapping up in several growing regions. MFC Chile Peppers are available.

Mexico

• Mexican supplies are increasing
• Jalapeno and tomatillo stocks are abundant
• Quality has improved in recent weeks, but discoloration and misshapen peppers are being reported occasionally
• Next week’s expected storms may negatively impact quality and yields
• Red Fresno chiles remain limited, but yields are expected to increase in two to three weeks
• Most markets are steady, but prices for Poblanos, Anaheims, and Habaneros remain elevated

United States

• The Texas season will end over the next two weeks
• East Coast production, concentrated in Georgia, is fully underway; standard and specialty chiles are shipping
• Jalapeno volume is meeting demand in California’s desert region, but the season is past its peak
• California’s San Joaquin Valley season will begin in mid-June, while Central Coast production will begin in July
• Expect markets to inch up until more West Coast seasons start in two to three weeks

Mexican green and red grape prices are inching down. Mexican portioned grapes will begin shipping the week of June 14. The California grape season is set to kick off in late July, increasing overall market supplies for the summer.

Red/Green Grapes

• Markon Essentials (ESS) Grapes are available  
• The Mexican season is ramping up; demand is moderate
• Pricing will fall as yields increase
• California grapes will begin shipping in late July

Lunch Bunch

• MFC Portioned Grapes will begin shipping in early July
• Packer label offshore portioned grapes are currently being shipped
• The Mexican portioned grape season will begin the week of June 14
• Expect elevated pricing as the season begins, followed by gradually decreasing markets

Orange stocks remain extremely limited, particularly 113- and 138-count sizes. This tight supply is being felt across all growing regions, and unfortunately, no improvement is expected until the Chilean and South African import seasons start in July.

California

• MFC and ESS Oranges are available 
• Overall supplies of 113- and 138-count oranges will be extremely limited through the Valencia season, which runs until October
• 56-, 72-, and 88-count fruit are abundant
• Expect to make size and grade substitutions, as well as date changes, to fill orders of small fruit
• Quality is good; sugar levels range from 12-13 Brix
• Expect high prices for small fruit (113- and 138-count supplies)

Florida 

• Growers will ship storage fruit through the end of June
• Supplies are dominated by 113-count and larger sizes; 138-count oranges are limited
• Quality is fair; choice and standard grades are most abundant
• Expect steady markets through June

Mexico

• The Valencia season has ended

Imported/Moroccan

• Expect the Moroccan season to end in late June
• Valencia quality is very good; sugar levels range from 12-13 Brix
• Stocks are dominated by 113- and 100-count sizes; 138-count fruit is extremely limited
• Expect elevated prices into mid-June

Imported/South Africa & Chile

• The season will begin in early July
• Current rain events have growers worried about size structure upon arrival in the U.S.
• Supplies will be dominated by 113-count and larger sizes
• Import palletization:
  • 72 cases per pallet
  • Box weight is 33 pounds (15 KG)
• Domestic palletization:
  • 54 cases per pallet (18 KG)
  • Box weight is 40 pounds

Prices are low as multiple growing regions are in play, including the Southeast, California, and the Baja Peninsula; supplies have increased. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

Southeast

• Production is winding down in South Georgia; quality is mixed
• The North Carolina season has started
  • Volume will increase weekly
  • Quality is very good
• Expect weak prices

California

• The San Joaquin Valley season is underway
  • Volume is increasing
  • Quality is very good
• California’s Santa Maria season is ramping up
• Expect lower prices over the next two weeks

Mexico

• Production has ended in Western Mexico
  • Growers have transitioned to Baja
  • Zucchini volume is increasing
  • Yellow squash supplies are tight
  • New crop quality is very good

Tomato markets are lower as multiple regions enter their summer season.  Central Florida production is coming to an end as we transition into the South Carolina, Florida Panhandle and South Georgia. The Baja Peninsula and California will increase production in June.

Rounds

• East Coast
  • Central Florida production is winding down and will end this week
  • South Carolina, Florida Panhandle and South Georgia are in full production
  • Quality is very good
  • Tennessee and Virginia will begin production around July 4
  • Markets will remain steady over the next few weeks
• Mexico
  • The Baja Peninsula has steady moderate production on their new fields, quality is nice
  • Central Mexico has light volume crossing in South Texas
• California
  • The San Joaquin Valley has started with very light production that will increase throughout June

Romas

• East Coast
  • Central Florida production is ending
  • South Carlina, Florida Panhandle and South Georgia are in full production
  • Quality is very good
  • Tennessee and Virginia production will begin early July
  • Expect lower markets in the coming weeks
• Mexico
  • Central Mexico has new blocks starting in early June which will increase overall volume
  • The Baja Peninsula is underway with very nice quality; larger sizes are most prevalent
• California
  • Production is expected to start in the next 7-10 days
  • Prices are low

Grape and Cherry

• East Coast
  • Central Florida production has ended
  • Good production in South Carolina, Florida Panhandle and South Georgia
  • Quality is good
  • Tennessee and Virginia production will start the end of June
  • Markets are starting to ease and will fall further through May
• Mexico
  • Baja has good volume and strong quality
  • West Mexico has light volume as their season winds down; quality average
  • Expect low prices next week