Market Outlook

Prices for Ribeyes will shift to a more balanced tone in the coming weeks, falling in line with normal seasonal price trends. Buyers from domestic sales channels will continue to trade down from the Rib Primal, moderating prices in the coming weeks.

Prices will abruptly shift to a slightly softer tone over the next several weeks. While overall beef production will continue to track lower year-on-year, seasonal factors will finally weigh on Strips prices going into October.

Prices will continue to show a neutral tone over the next several weeks, falling in line with seasonal trends. Foodservice buyers may be seen coming in to contract needs later in the year, but for the near term prices will take on a balanced tone.

Prices will shift to a more balanced tone going into October, falling more in line with seasonal trends for late September / early October. Retail buyers will be seen backing off of near-record prices in recent weeks, leading to more moderate prices from packers.

Prices will continue to rise going into October. The seasonal trend for Top Butt demand to increase will be further reinforced by consumers trading down to lower value items this fall.

Prices will rise over the next several weeks as regional and national food service segments will be seen promoting Briskets to improve customer traffic.

Prices will take on a balanced tone over the next several weeks, defying the seasonal trend to put in lows for the year in the second half of September. While Foodservice demand will remain modest, tight supplies of available product will keep prices a bit more supported.

Prices will continue range trade over the next several weeks, and avoid the seasonal trend to put in their lows for the year in early October. The impact of lower overall beef production and selected interest from Asian export markets will keep prices more supported this fall.

Prices will continue to show a strong tone over the next several weeks. Beef consumers will be seen trading down the carcass to end cuts, including rounds, keeping prices for many items cut from the Round primal.

Prices will continue to take on a firm tone going through the end of the months, trading away from seasonal price trends. Prices for Chuck items overall will be very strong due to exceptional demand from both domestic and export sales channels, keeping prices for Ground Chuck very well supported.

Prices will continue to rise going into October. Prices for lean trimmings will continue to firm as domestic cow slaughter slows due to the tighter cow herd.

The chicken and WOG markets have seen prices oscillating, at times towards marginal strength, and at other times more oriented towards a steady scenario. In the end, demand is consistent and usually able to absorb any offerings which are making the rounds. Chickens follow the same reasonably well-worn path which they have been on where steady prices and consistent retail interest allows ready placement.

As mentioned, the sudden “on a dime” turn of events in the jumbo boneless market indicates that ample supplies are available which seem to be a product of reduced retail outreach and better bird performance. More pounds on the street mean more options for buyers who just don’t need the volumes they were previously reaching and reaching hard for during the past month and more. This is having a trickle-down impact on tenders which, while still supported, are no longer considered firm. Medium and small boneless is fair balance but suffering a bit in relation to jumbo. The other items which have been garnering attention still seem to be performing decently.

Whole and cut wing demand is not satiated. Even though there is a greater ability to satisfy buying interest without allocating commitments or jumping through a bunch of hoops, prices are still reflecting paid premiums and our quotations move higher.

Thigh meat is short of full needs and clearing with ease, however, the vigor that had been in place is lacking. Leg meat is steady and bone-in back half items are in close balance. Thighs are very tough to uncover given active deboning. Drums are in tight supply as one might expect given solid leg performance and the same can be said of leg quarters.

Current inventories and flocks are the largest since 2021, and are well-positioned to support a busy fall, but all eyes are upon the upcoming flyover season, the precursor to Avian Influenza outbreaks. Memories are still fresh from 2021, when Turkey flocks were devastated, driving a level of risk premium into market activity. All signs point to a steady market going forward.

Further downside is almost assured given the amount of Turkey breast available this year vs last year. Available loads almost always go below ask, which will continue to keep prices pressured to the downside.

Prices will remain low going into September as the seasonal trend for values to soften this time of year is very strong. Higher pork production combined with elevated cold storage supplies of bellies will keep prices restrained going into October.

Steady prices are expected going into October, taking a cue from normal seasonal price trends. Softer demand for Loins from domestic sales channels will be offset by stronger demand from Asian export markets, keeping prices in balance.

Prices will decrease going into October as retail demand for Ribs tends to seasonally fall off in the fall months. Foodservice demand will remain relatively constrained, keep prices soft overall.

Prices will rise going into October as demand from domestic sales channels continues to impress, especially from retail. Export demand will also continue to be strong and keep prices very well supported.

Prices will remain higher, following seasonal trends for the month. The combination of increased demand from retail for lunch meat and strong buying interest from Mexico for bone-in hams will keep prices firm.

The white shrimp market appears steadier than it has in some time, a reflection of improving inventories. While there is some competitiveness particularly in cooked, it is less apparent than just a while ago. The broad downside risk appears to have subsided temporarily.

The tone of the market mostly mirrors white shrimp. There are pockets of supply in cooked that have been susceptible but overall balanced.

There was continued and broader weakness in wild shrimp pricing. Despite the steady tone to imports, wild domestic supplies appear tipped to fully adequate where viable alternatives exist. This further pressed Mexican prices again.

The spiny lobster tail seasons in all Caribbean origins are now open. Catches and inventory remains healthy and markets are steady but lower than the last several years. This is a great alternative to the North American Lobster Tails during times of less availability or high market conditions. Short Term: Soft Price

Market values remain stable. Fall season has begun and plants are packing the first round of catches now. Catches have been steady but primarily all smaller sized tails (2/3oz-5/6oz). Larger tails are expected to remain limited until Fall. Short Term: Steady Prices

The meat market remains unchanged and relatively stable. Inventory levels sufficient for current demand. Short Term: Stable Pricing

Market values are holding steady on 5/8’s. Larger sized crab are more limited with full steady markets. Short Term: Unsettled Pricing

Markets have stabilized at lower levels and domestic inventories appear to have balanced and meet current demands. Short Term: Stable Pricing

Domestic markets remain soft and steady but replacement costs are increasing with inflation raising costs of raw materials and processing. Short Term: Soft Price

Markets have balanced and leveled off as inventories have become more readily available. Demand has weakened over the recent years with the spike in costs and limited availability. Short Term: Steady to weak Price

The undertone is somewhere unsettled with fresh prices coming in slightly higher across all sizes. Supplies are adequate to barely adequate. Short Term: Steady Pricing

Markets remain steady and supplies are reported to be barely adequate for current demand. Short Term: Stable Price

Domestics markets remain steady but replacement costs overseas are increasing due to the inflation costs of raw materials involved. Short Term: Soft Pricing

Blue swimming crab meat market continues steady to full steady across all grades; though there are a few higher offers in the market on larger sizes. Supplies remain adequate to barely adequate dependent on grade. Raw material pricing is reported to be higher overseas.

Nearby milk output is mixed across the country as cooler weather trends are helping to reverse the seasonal weekly declines in output that have been seen throughout the summer. After setting new nearby highs earlier this month, the better weather, especially in the upper Midwest has weighed on domestic milk prices this past week. The market is in the process of finding a new value range to incentivize producers and limit further declines in U.S. dairy cows. The USDA’s milk production report showed output in August declining less than expected at only 0.2% lower YOY in July, with herds unchanged from July after that figure was lowered another 10k head. When combined with slowing dairy cow slaughter rates, the market is attempting to stabilize. The uptick in Class I orders with schools getting back in session is to less nearby spot load availability while benefitting cream availability to a small extent through standardization. Slower ice cream demand for cream is also freeing more up for butter, but cream supplies are still considered tight across most of the country.

The butter market pushed to a new calendar year high this week, while any nearby declines have been met with solid buying interest from end users. Domestic butter demand should keep prices from pulling back too sharply, with the first 7 months of the year setting a new record and up 8.2% from 2022, but production is starting its seasonal ramp up and should help to limit a retest of last year’s record prices. The USDA reported butter churns produced 3.5% more butter in July vs. 2022, and some recent improvements in cream availability should help this trend continue into the fall. However, cream supplies are still tight across the country, despite increased bottling demand pushing some additional supplies of cream onto the market. The butter market remains the strongest dairy market due to elevated domestic demand keeping cold storage levels under pressure, with July noting another large decline from the prior month (-5.2%) but remaining 5.2% higher than last year’s very tight levels. The earlier than expected decline in stocks will keep buyers on edge ahead of the typical drawdown season (July-Nov) given supplies are no longer at very comfortable levels.

The block and barrel markets have continued to grind lower this week, with the barrels noting the most weakness. The combination of cooler weather across the Northern tier of the U.S., along with higher milk prices is starting to slow the rampant dairy cow slaughter rates and increased optimism around spot milk availability for cheese vats. Also, with overall buying interest more subdued at the recent highs, and declining global dairy values, the U.S. cheese market is finding renewed selling pressure. The USDA reported overall cheese production in July was 0.7% below the prior year, while American cheese production was 0.2% higher and Cheddar cheese was a whopping 2.6% smaller YOY. Some maintenance downtimes and less cheap milk availability will limit August estimates, but new plant capacity should keep plenty of cheese coming to the market. Even with the slower production rates, American cheese cold storage levels are still historically high, but did show a surprising 1.8% decline. Weekly reports showing better nearby milk availability should keep vats across the country running at regular to strong levels despite YOY declines in total milk output. When combined with only slightly better domestic demand (+3.6% YTD), and limited new export interest, cheese values are under pressure.

Conventional shell egg prices are running out of downside momentum as the cheaper prices are incentivizing some additional order interest. Also, with the fall migration looming, the market will likely maintain a decent amount of risk premium due to HPAI concerns through the fall and limit large scale selloffs until then.   Improved order flows have also kept prices above pre-bird flu levels, along with regular seasonal strength into the fall, with shell egg demand benefitting from more expensive alternative proteins and the price conscious consumer.  The updated chickens and eggs report from the USDA for August showed a minor seasonal increase in laying hens (+0.3% from July) and remains 3.4% larger than last year.  With strong laying hen numbers, table shell egg production was up 3.7% from the prior year, demonstrating the increased shell egg supply coming to market.  The cage-free market has taken note of the weakness in conventional pricing, following that market lower but is also starting to stabilize. The cage-free flock in August was 3.5 million layers larger than in July, showing a resurgence in the cage-free expansion seen in Q1. Cage-free prices will need to maintain a decent premium to conventional eggs into the end of the year in order to incentivize further expansion as more cage-free state mandates kick in.

The soybean oil futures have back off their recent highs and are nearing the lower end of their recent range. The combination of ongoing soybean harvest and declining biofuel margins on the recent reversal in crude oil and diesel prices have helped drive the setback. Finishing weather for U.S. soybeans was been hot and dry, which should benefit soybean oil yields this next year while trimming soybean yield potential. Crude and refined soybean oil basis offers were mostly steady albeit with a slightly firmer tone now on the tighter stocks.

Spot canola seed futures have been trending lower as the Canadian canola harvest is well underway. Statistics Canada estimated their 2023 canola production at 17.4 million metric tons, below the average trade estimate of 17.9 million and down from 17.6 million put out last month. Refined canola oil basis levels were softer again last week, while flat prices still well supported by the firm SBO futures.

Palm oil futures are consolidating near the September lows and remain in the middle of the long term range. India’s palm oil imports hit a nine-month high in August of 1.13 million metric tons. Palm oil prices remain at a significant discount to soybean oil on the global cash market but Malaysia’s first half of September exports were down 9.3% from the same period in August.

California bell pepper markets are steady. East Coast markets are becoming active. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• California
  • The Oxnard, Newhall, and Hollister, California growing regions are seeing steady volume
  • Overall quality is good; scarring, thin walls, and mechanical damage are occasional issues
  • Production is expected to start in Thermal, California in late October
  • Markets are steady

• Central Mexico/East Coast   
  • Central Mexican supplies (crossing through Texas) are tight
  • Rainfall is impacting new crop production in New York, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
  • Georgia production is expected to be delayed until late October as a result of Hurricane Idalia
    • First new crop volume will be low
    • Expect increased volume by the second week of November
  • East Coast markets will rise over the next five weeks

Red Bells

• California
  • The Hollister, Oxnard, and Newhall, California growing regions are seeing steady volume
  • Oxnard red bell production was the most impacted by Hurricane Hilary; production has since begun to rebound as growers move into new crop fields
  • Quality is improving; scarring, thin walls, and mechanical damage are occasional issues
  • Markets remain elevated

• Central Mexico/Canada  
  • Central Mexican supplies (crossing through Texas) are tight; quality ranges from good to fair
  • Eastern Canada production is low due to poor fall weather

Blueberry supplies continue to be extremely limited as domestic production ends and import volume is delayed. Expect elevated markets and limited supplies for the next four to six weeks.

United States and Canada

• Oregon growers are winding down rapidly with minimal volume of organic fruit
• British Columbia, Canada harvest will end this week; cool weather and rain has slowed production

Mexico

• The new crop season is getting a slow start
• Baja volume is slowly increasing; consistent rain has delayed harvests
• Adequate stocks aren’t expected until October

Peru

• Shipments are slowly arriving in the U.S.
• El Nino conditions have raised temperatures and caused poor fruit set
• Consistent volume is not expected until mid-October

Argentina and Uruguay

• Argentina and Uruguay shipments are expected to arrive in Miami, Florida and Los Angeles, California in mid- to late October

The market for Brussels Sprouts remains stubbornly high. Supplies are very light and insufficient to meet current demand, driving markets higher.

• Markon First Crop (MFC) and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Brussels Sprouts remain limited; packer label is being substituted to fill orders
• After beginning the Salinas, California season late due to heavy precipitation this winter and cool weather this spring, suppliers were forced to harvest ahead of schedule through much of the summer
• Harvesting immature fields to keep up with strong demand has kept size profile skewed heavily towards the smaller side

• Prices are expected to remain elevated through October, at minimum, with additional growing regions from Mexico set to enter the market by mid-December

Small-size oranges (113- through 138-count fruit) remain limited due to scarce supplies and strong demand. Prices for small lemons remain elevated due to tight stocks and strong demand.

Oranges

• Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Valencia Oranges are available
• Overall supplies will be the most limited during the first two weeks of October
• Small-size oranges (113- through 138-count fruit) are extremely tight
• Expect to make size and grade substitutions to fill orders
• New crop California Navels will begin shipping in late October
• Expect increasing markets and scarce supplies through mid-October

Lemons

• MFC and ESS Lemons are available  
• Small-size lemons (165- through 235-count supplies) remain limited
• Size and/or country of origin changes may be needed to help fill orders
• Offshore and Mexican supplies continue to help fill small-size shortages on the West Coast
• New crop California lemons will begin shipping in mid-October
• Expect tight stocks and elevated markets through the mid-October

Green leaf, iceberg, and romaine markets are slowly rising as the Salinas season begins to wind down.

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Premium Green Leaf is readily available; MFC Premium Iceberg and Romaine are being packed regularly, with Markon Best Available (MBA) being substituted as needed due to low weights
• Harvesting crews are trimming heads to minimize insect damage, mildew, and wind damage
• Impatiens Spot Necrotic Virus (INSV) presence is markedly lower compared to prior years
• Expect prices to continue to inch up as growers manage remaining acreage ahead of transition
  • Market spikes experienced the last two seasons are not anticipated as the current Salinas season comes to an end
  • Huron harvests are expected to start in mid- to late October
  • The Arizona and California desert season will start in early to mid-November

The green onion market remains extremely elevated. Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Green Onions are available; packer label green onions are being supplemented as needed to ensure order fulfillment.

• Impacts from the strong winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding from Hurricane Hilary greatly reduced supplies out of the primary growing regions on the Baja Peninsula of Mexico
• Additional rain and infrastructure repairs have proven to be lingering effects of the storm and are further impacting volume
• Large-size packs remain limited; ‘longtop’ green onions are especially tight
• Elevated markets will persist through mid-October

California’s San Joaquin Valley season is past peak production; markets are increasing. Markon First Crop (MFC) Cantaloupe and Honeydew Melons are available.

Cantaloupe

• Volume is falling due to lower temperatures and reduced autumn daylight in the San Joaquin Valley
  • Quality is good with occasional ground spotting
  • Small sizes (12- and 15-count melons) are most abundant
• The Arizona/California desert season is expected to start in mid-October
• Expect higher prices over the next two weeks

Honeydew

• California’s San Joaquin Valley season is slowing down
  • Quality is very good with reports of wind scarring and discoloration in some lots
  • All sizes are available
• The Arizona/California desert season swill start in mid-October
• Expect prices to increase as this transition approaches over the next month

Production continues to decline in Salinas/Watsonville. Santa Maria’s new fall strawberry crop harvesting is in full swing.

Salinas/Watsonville

• Markon Frist Crop (MFC) Strawberries are available
• Stocks continue to diminish as the season is past its peak and is expected to finish in late October
• Size currently ranges from small to medium (20 to 24 berries per one-pound clamshell)
• Quality is good; some softness and early decay have been reported

Santa Maria

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Fruit size is 16 to 24 berries per one-pound clamshell; recent warmer temperatures are producing uneven sizing in clamshells
• Quality is good; some softness and white shoulders have been reported
• Expect steady markets and strong demand for the next two weeks

Industry wide quality challenges have reduced available supplies of Baby Broccoli. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Sweet Baby Broccoli is available.

• Higher than average humidity has contributed to higher levels of bottom rot and brown bead, reducing yields at the field level
• Lower nighttime temperatures and shorter days will keep yields lighter than for the next two to three weeks
• Expect elevated prices on the open market and limited supplies industry wide as shippers look to hold customers to averages
• Supplies are set to increase again as newer plantings come online in mid-October