Market Outlook

Prices are expected to trade sideways in the coming weeks. Retail featuring for both boneless and bone-in Ribeye Steaks eased in the week ended April 10, falling below prior week and year-ago levels. Foodservice demand is expected to remain moderate to soft heading into May.

Prices will remain firm throughout April, underpinned by typical seasonal patterns. This cut continues to dominate consumer preference within the middle meats category, though further price appreciation may face resistance as consumers are unlikely to chase the market higher.

Prices are expected to find a more balanced tone heading into May, despite the typical seasonal tendency to strengthen this time of year. Cautious foodservice demand should keep upward price movement in check.

Prices are expected to hold firm through April, bucking the typical seasonal pattern. The underlying strength reflects a combination of expanded foodservice menu placement and growing retail demand as grilling season approaches.

Prices are expected to remain firm heading into May, as tight overall beef supplies coincide with more aggressive retail purchasing. Sirloin steaks should attract increased consumer interest at the meat case, particularly among shoppers seeking value amid elevated middle meat prices.

Prices are expected to hold firm moving into May, consistent with seasonal trends. Growing foodservice interest and limited supply should allow packers to maintain their asking prices in the coming weeks.

Prices are expected to remain strong into May, consistent with seasonal trends. Persistent foodservice demand should provide continued underlying support.

Prices are poised to strengthen further in the coming weeks, consistent with seasonal trends. Retail demand is expected to remain robust, even as featuring activity runs lighter than normal.

Prices are expected to remain soft in the coming weeks as moderating demand from domestic channels, will keep downward pressure on prices.

Prices are expected to hold firm through April, supported by solid retail demand for quality ground product. While consumer resistance typically emerges at these levels, that threshold looks increasingly likely to be tested as spring advances.

Prices are expected to hold firm, underpinned by strong retail demand and tightening fresh lean supplies. With grilling season approaching, demand shows no signs of easing — a dynamic that should sustain upward pressure on values.

WOGs maintain a steady rating, with retail purchasing channels taking the most enthusiastic approach in their procurement efforts. Deboning outreach, on the other hand, is less lively when compared to the recent past. The 3–3.5 lb. and 3.5–4 lb. birds remain unchanged.

Bone-in breasts and front halves are uneventful, closing the morning unchanged and termed as steady. When it comes to jumbo boneless breasts, spot offerings are at least adequate across most points of sale, with medium-sized production also surfacing with increased frequency on the spot market. This scenario prompts sellers to remain flexible on their asking prices if it means stirring up some additional business. Select-sized boneless breasts are stable at listed levels. Tenders close the morning under a full steady rating, with spot availability ranging from adequate to barely adequate, depending on the player in question.

Wings remain in an unsettled state. Here, jumbo-sized offerings find a home at supportive price points, though spot demand leaves much to be desired in the minds of most marketers. Medium and small-sized production is fully adequate against a fair demand backdrop, placing downward pressure on spot values.

The back half of the bird closes in a steady state overall. Legs, leg quarters, thighs, and drums all find a home at market-supportive price points. Some players suggest that spot availability isn’t quite as visible as it has been in the recent past. Thigh meat is a mixed bag with some players suggesting that demand patterns are continuing to outpace current supplies, while others note that a degree of buy-side price sensitivity has begun to surface. Leg meat follows a similar path as the day prior, with recent dialogue suggesting that the relatively wide price spread between leg meat and thigh meat has resulted in pockets of additional value-oriented outreach efforts.

Frozen whole turkey offerings are extremely limited, but when production does show, many buyers are hesitant to purchase at the current asking prices. In response, quotations for the frozen 12 lbs. hens and 16 lbs. toms remain unchanged. The consumer and institutional-sized breasts trade quietly at supportive values. Any offerings that are made available are quickly absorbed.

Fresh breast meat trades more regularly on the spot market, but most negotiations support a steady market. Movement of frozen production remains slow due to limited inventories. Frozen tom breast meat remains unchanged.

Prices are expected to remain steady to firm through the spring, underpinned by the onset of grilling season and a pickup in foodservice and QSR promotional activity. With cold storage supplies running lean, any surge in demand could quickly tighten the market further.

Prices are expected to hold steady through the back half of April, in line with typical seasonal patterns. A pickup in export demand should lend underlying support, while supplies remain sufficient to meet overall needs.

Prices are expected to remain supported in the coming weeks, consistent with seasonal trends. Demand is forecast to be robust across both domestic marketing channels and Asian export markets, providing firm underlying support.

Prices are expected to find support in the coming weeks, buoyed by a pickup in export interest and the onset of grilling season.

Prices are expected to find a more balanced footing in the coming weeks, following normal seasonal trends. While pork production remains questionable, demand should remain modest enough to keep the market in equilibrium

Prices continue to rise gradually as supply tightens. Pricing is expected to trend higher as MMPA-related impacts remain uncertain.

The white shrimp market remains generally stable. Lower inbound pricing from India continues to offset higher-cost product from Central America. Outlook suggests pricing should hold at current levels or trend modestly lower, with elevated fuel costs for sea freight remaining the primary constraint to further cost reduction.

The black tiger shrimp market is stable overall, with some lower pricing observed on headless shell-on product and smaller size ranges. Pricing is expected to remain steady to slightly softer, as fuel costs for ocean freight continue to limit broader declines.

Prices are firm to slightly higher as the market moves into the Lenten period. Larger sizes (U10–U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA-related restrictions impacting key harvest areas.

The market has stabilized, with some lower-priced offers emerging on larger sizes. High-volume sizes (5–8 oz) remain stable but are showing upward pressure as supply tightens.

Pricing has stabilized at historically high levels. Supplies remain tight across all sizes, and prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term.

Live lobster prices have stabilized at high levels, with tight availability across all sizes. Prices are expected to continue inching higher through Mother’s Day.

Pricing remains stable for now, supported by limited raw material availability despite ample frozen tail inventories. Prices are expected to trend higher through Mother’s Day.

The market remains extremely tight as the new season begins. Forecasts continue to support higher pricing, with product availability very limited—particularly in 5–8 oz and 4-up sizes.

Prices have leveled off amid the continued lack of Russian-origin product. Some size categories remain scarce, though product is generally available.

Prices remain stable at current levels. Several producing countries are experiencing quality and consistency challenges, influencing buying behavior.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Pricing has leveled off and remains stable. Market indicators suggest potential downward pressure beginning in early June.

The market has stabilized at current rates, with expectations for pricing to soften in early June.

Fresh salmon pricing has leveled off, with early June expected to bring some price relief.

Asian supply remains stable, while South and Central American supply continues to be constrained and is expected to remain challenged through spring 2026.

The market remains stable, with no anticipated changes to pricing or supply outlook.

Pricing remains firm overall, though select size categories have seen softer demand. Lower quotas year-over-year suggest any near-term price relief may be temporary.

Prices continue to rise due to tight global availability. Key sizes and cuts are under allocation, with no meaningful relief expected until late Q2.

Supply has tightened as buyers substitute away from higher-priced Atlantic cod. While recovery is underway, key sizes remain limited.

The market remains stable, with no changes expected to pricing or supply conditions.

The season is fully underway, with record-high pricing currently in the market. Elevated fuel costs remain the primary driver of price increases.

Milk production remains impressive, and is still trending steady to higher across the country as we approach peak spring flush season. US milk production report showed a massive 2.9% increase in February vs. the prior year and another 15k head added to domestic dairy herds from last month. This is the largest US herd since 1993 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, stronger YOY milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The butter market is starting to consolidate near its recent lows. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard. This has been magnified by the stronger butterfat component within the milk, pushing even more cream onto the market. The USDA confirmed the elevated production levels this past week as updated data showed February butter output up 9.1% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. Recent export data did show the US exported the most butter in the month of January since 1994, but forward expectations don’t appear as optimistic. Export demand will likely face further headwinds given the recent run up in US values, elevated freight costs, stronger US dollar and growing inflation risk from the US – Iran war. However, the cheaper prices earlier this year did support better domestic and global demand, keeping US inventories limited.

The cheese markets are trading back at the lower end of their recent range. Impressive milk output has helped keep cheese vats full and running hard. This was confirmed by the USDA this past week as updated production data showed February cheese output up 3.9% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. American and Cheddar output was slightly lower at +1.9% and +2.3% respectively. Stronger dairy margins of late should continue to limit dairy cow slaughter and keep plenty of milk coming to market as we move into the spring flush season. Cold storage figures from the USDA showed that February stocks of all cheese, and American styles, have struggled in the early seasonal build period and are both the smallest for the month since 2020. Additional cost pressure on consumers should be a headwind to rallies.

The shell egg markets have pushed to fresh multi-year lows, but are starting to stabilize as increased restocking demand is observed. Overall flocks are still more than adequate as updated monthly flock data showed the US table egg laying flock as of March 1st at 315.8 million head, up 5.8 million from last month (counter seasonal) and +8.2% YOY. Seasonality would suggest softer prices into the summer months, but with prices already historically soft, further downside appears limited. Updated cage free layers for March showed little movement as flocks were only 300k head lower than the prior month and still at record highs.

Soybean oil futures are pushing back towards their contract highs set earlier this month, finding support from the energy markets and the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Without an end to the war, there remains plenty of risk in the market, limiting downside nearby. Also, the finalized 2026/2027 biofuel policy is driving better vegoil demand and limiting downside. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remained firm last week while South American levels are now up significantly from their recent lows.

Canola futures are chopping sideways this week as it continues to mirror the movement in the soybean / soybean oil markets. Canadian weather forecasts continue to show good moisture in the southern prairies ahead of planting. RBD canola oil basis offers remained firm through Q3.

Palm oil futures moved lower this week. Indonesia issued a decree setting a timeline to raise its palm-based biodiesel mandate to B50 starting July 1, with all biodiesel users required to switch to B50 by 2028 and allocations to be detailed later in 2026. March Malaysian palm oil stocks top forecasts at 2.267 MMT — the highest March level in seven years — despite a sharp 437,000-tonne monthly draw, inventories are still running nearly 45% above year-ago levels.

Prices are rising; Mexican jumbo and extra-large sizes are limited. The domestic asparagus season has begun; supplies will increase by mid-May.

Mexico

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available
• Jumbo and extra-large sizes are extremely limited
• Size is heavily skewed toward standard and large spears
• Baja production has started in a limited manner and will increase over the next several weeks; harvests in Central Mexico will follow by mid-May
• Demand is strong heading into Mother’s Day; supply relief and better quality are anticipated as new crop production increases over the next several weeks
• Expect limited availability of jumbo and extra-large sizes, as well as elevated prices, until mid-May

Peru

• Production is ongoing in both northern and southern regions
• Quality ranges from fair to good
  • Recent high heat has impacted quality
  • Feathered tips, dehydration, and flabby spears have been reported
• Weather is forecast to cool down over the next week, which should help quality
• Supplies remain tight due to strong demand and low Mexican volume

California/Michigan/Washington

• Domestic asparagus production is expected to increase through April and into May, which should relieve current market conditions
• California and Washington harvests are just getting started; recent colder weather in the Pacific Northwest has delayed some crops
• Limited harvesting has also begun in Michigan and Indiana, but most product is being sold locally
• Expect steady domestic supplies by the second week of May on both coasts, barring any weather disruptions

Prices are elevated. Expect limited availability until volume ramps up in mid-May.

Peaches/Nectarines

• The California season will run through mid-September
• Limited quantities have begun shipping
• Quality is good
  • Sugar levels range between 11 and 13 Brix
  • Sweetness/flavor will peak in late June
• Expect elevated markets over the next three weeks; markets will ease thereafter

Plums

• The California season will run from early June to mid-October
• Limited supplies of imported fruit are being shipped
• Domestic fruit will begin shipping the week of June 18
• Expect elevated markets over the next four weeks, followed by better pricing

The offshore melon season is winding down.

Cantaloupe

Central America

• Offshore production is hitting its final peak and will wind down through May
• Sizing has been skewed larger, with a more balanced 9- to 12-count mix expected to develop
• Quality is excellent with strong eating characteristics
• Markets are firm as offshore supplies taper ahead of domestic start dates

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Domestic production is expected to begin by early to mid-May
• Favorable weather has pushed the start earlier than normal
• Early supplies will be dominated by 9-count fruit, with improved availability of 12-count stocks developing later in May
• Quality will start strong
• Domestic supplies should help stabilize prices by late May

Honeydew

Central America

• Supplies have increased as new production comes online
• The offshore season will wind down through May ahead of seasonal transitions
• Markets are trending lower as offshore and Mexican supplies are plentiful

Mexico

• Production will continue into June
• Supplies are increasing and will remain an important bridge as the offshore season ends
• Markets are easing as new crop supplies come online

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Domestic honeydew is expected to start shipping in mid-May
• Favorable weather has accelerated the production window
• Initial supplies will be dominated by five-count supplies, with stronger availability of both five- and six-count melons developing later in May
• Quality will start strong
• Gradual volume increases should provide additional relief

West Coast carrot supplies remain tight as the Imperial Valley season winds down; overall size is smaller than normal for this time of year. Limited availability is expected through May as reduced size is lowering yields; commodity pack prices have increased as a result.

California

• Supplies will remain extremely tight through May as the Imperial Valley season winds down
• Expect increased supplies in mid-May, when the Bakersfield season kicks in
• Imperial Valley yields are tight due to reduced sizing
• California accounts for 80% of the nation’s carrot supply
• Markon orders will be shipped in full; growers are holding to six-week averages
• Expect a demand-exceeds-supply market; 96-hour lead times are necessary to help fill orders
• Commodity pack (jumbo carrot) substitutions are available out of Arizona and Georgia
• Elevated markets and limited supplies will persist through March

Georgia

• The season will run through early June
• Commodity supplies are tight; quality is very good
• Expect high prices as this region helps fill the void from California

Arizona

• The season is in full swing and will run through mid-June; quality is great
• Expect high prices and strong demand as this region helps fill the void from California

Mexico

• Inconsistent production has been an issue
• Expect moderately high pricing and strong demand until California production increases

Cherry season has begun in North America. Supplies will ship from various regions over the next three to four months. Expect elevated early-season prices as weather-related issues have diminished supplies and reduced upcoming crops in major growing areas.

California

• The season has just started
• High temperatures and recent rainfall have lowered yields
• Initial crop estimates predict a 40% reduction in overall supply
• Expect elevated markets and an early end to the season in late May

Washington

• Heavy frost in late March will affect upcoming availability
  • This season typically begins in late May, but will be delayed until early June
  • Estimates indicate between 20%-70% crop loss depending on region
• Prices will start high due to minimal supplies
• The season will run through July

Michigan

• This season is expected to start the week of July 6
• Cooler weather is being mitigated by watering fields and using fans to keep frost damage to a minimum
• Markets will start off elevated but slowly decline as volume increases
• The season will run through August

The Chilean/Peruvian offshore season will wrap up over the next four weeks. Grape shipments will transition to Mexican-grown product in mid- to late May. Expect pricing to increase as the offshore season winds down.

Offshore

• The Peruvian/Chilean green and red grape seasons will end in mid-May
• MFC Lunch Bunch Grapes will ship through mid-May, but resume with Mexican product in late May
• Although stocks will tighten and markets will rise, suppliers do not expect any supply gaps between the offshore and Mexican seasons

Mexico

• MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Grapes will be shipped out of Mexico in late May
• Commodity supplies of Mexican green and red grapes will enter the market in mid- to late May
• Mexican portioned grapes will become available in late May
• Expect elevated pricing as the season begins, then markets will gradually decrease

The lime market is inching down as supplies increase from Mexico. MFC and ESS Limes remain available.

Mexico (into South Texas)

• Size is skewed toward smaller fruit; 175-count and larger stocks are limited
• Excessive heat is expected in Mexico, which may stress the crop
• Quality remains strong with minimal oil spotting and skin breakdown
• The Cinco de Mayo holiday will spike demand this week

Colombia

• Supplies are ample across all sizes
• Quality is strong; juice content is higher than limes coming from Mexico
• Pricing is less reactive to demand or supply changes with some sizes now more expensive than Mexican limes

Hawaii

• Despite heavy rains in late winter, the crop remains in good shape
• Harvesting has been delayed due to excess moisture in fields
• Steady supplies are expected to resume shipping once clearance is granted to ship into the United States mainland
• Quality is very good; juice content is much higher than Mexican fruit

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho and North Dakota. The North Dakota season is winding down earlier than expected due to exceptionally strong demand. Yellow potatoes are projected to finish by the end of April, with red potatoes following in mid-May. Higher prices are anticipated across all growing regions.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Red storage supplies are ample, but yellow stocks are limited
• Overall quality is very good
  • Reds are exhibiting excellent skin color
  • Yellow potatoes are exhibiting late-season storage issues (pressure bruising and lenticels)
• Strong demand is pushing up prices

North Dakota

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• The red potato storage season will finish in mid-May
• Yellow potato shipments will end in late April
• Quality remains very good; reds are exhibiting dark color and minimal blemishes
• Strong East Coast demand is depleting storage supplies quickly
• The market is climbing

Colorado

• Large size A reds and yellows are abundant; B and C sizes are tight due to strong demand
• Quality is very good; red potato color is light pink
• Markets continue to rise for both red and yellow B and C sizes

Washington

• Red and yellow yields are average
• Late-season storage quality is fair, with reports of pressure bruising and lenticels
• Pricing is on the rise

Florida

• Supplies are limited statewide
• The Southern Florida season is expected to finish in mid-May
• Production in Northern Florida will start in two weeks
• Despite low volume, quality is very good
• Pricing is elevated across all colors and sizes; freeze damage has reduced availability

Upcoming regions

• The Arizona season will start in early May
• California production will begin in mid-May
• Texas supplies will start shipping in late June

Recent rain events have impacted key California growing regions, including Oxnard, Santa Maria, and Watsonville/Salinas. In advance of the storms, shippers harvested aggressively to protect quality and fulfill existing commitments. As of today, harvesting is suspended in Watsonville/Salinas, with limited production continuing in Santa Maria.

Santa Maria

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Berry size is medium, with smaller counts averaging 20–24 berries per 1‑lb clamshell
• Overall quality is good; some bruising and white shoulders have been reported
• Prices remain elevated due to limited supplies

Oxnard

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Berry size ranges from small to medium, with counts averaging 18–24 berries per 1‑lb clamshell
• Defects are minimal; some white shoulders and packing‑related bruising have been noted
• Markets are high; stocks are tight

Watsonville/Salinas

• Fruit size is large, averaging 10–15 berries per 1‑lb clamshell
• Quality ranges from fair to good; some lots are exhibiting light pin rot and minor water bruising
• Suppliers are actively assessing rain totals and potential damage, which may further impact availability and quality
• Prices remain elevated, with no short‑term relief expected until assessments are complete

Tomato supplies remain extremely tight. Florida is transitioning between districts with limited harvest days, and Mexico crossings are very light. Recent freezing temperatures in Mexico is keeping availability critically low and markets elevated.

Rounds

• Florida

• • Ruskin/Palmetto shippers are starting very slowly; harvest days are sporadic to start the season
• Mexico
  • Freezing temperatures have impacted production
  • Crossings have been very limited the past two weeks; round availability is essentially nonexistent
  • Jalisco is expected to start rounds May 1 and Baja Mexico late next week
  • Volume is expected to remain very light thru mid-May

Romas

• Florida

• • Immokalee supplies are slowing down with limited first picks remaining; most growers will be on 2^nd and 3^rd picks next week
  • Supplies are very snug due to reduced yields and crop transition North

• Mexico

• • Crossings into the US have been very limited; recent arrivals have been fair quality at best
  • Jalisco is expected to start Romas next week
  • Baja Mexico is beginning in a light way; freeze impacts are expected to keep markets elevated through May (potentially into June)

Grape and Cherry

• Florida

• • Supplies are slowly improving
  • Markets are trending lower and are expected to continue to ease into May
• Mexico
  • Baja Mexico supplies are increasing in availability as the region was not impacted by the recent cold event

Summary

• Rounds remain critically short, driven by a Florida district transition and extremely limited Mexico crossings
• Markets remain elevated; meaningful availability is not expected until mid-May (potentially into June)
• Maintain order flexibility and rotate product quickly