Market Outlook

September 9, 2024
  • BEEF
  • POULTRY
  • PORK
  • SEAFOOD
  • DAIRY
  • GRAINS & OILS
  • PRODUCE
BEEF

BEEF

Prices will continue to show a moderately strong tone overall as beef supplies remain on the tighter side. The USDA’s most recent Cold Storage report pegged July beef inventories at 8.2% below the five-year average for the month, while beef production continues to track lower year on year. That said, while outdoor BBQ grills are not put away for the season, consumers have already begun to transition their preferences away from traditional grilling favorites. Food service demand will take a breather as back-to-school expenses eat into discretionary income that could otherwise be spent on restaurant meal occasions. Beef trade continues to favor improved domestic availability as imports are set to remain elevated, while high U.S. beef prices will be a headwind for exports in the coming weeks.

steady
Ribeyes:

Prices will continue to take on a more balanced tone over the next several weeks as demand for Choice Ribeyes tends to moderate in the period between Labor Day and the build for year end demand, which typically begins in late October.

Lower
Strips:

Prices will take on a softer tone in coming weeks. Consumers will be seen being cautious buyers of higher end middle meats overall, while retailers will reduce features of Strips in favor of other items.

steady
Tenderloins:

Prices will shift to more steady tone in coming weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. While holiday demand is not expected to develop for several weeks, buyers will provide adequate offers to keep prices supported.

Lower
Tri-Tips:

Prices will continue to show a softer tone over the next several weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends for the month. Seasonal demand for Tri Tips will continue to decline with Labor Day having passed, forcing packers to lower offers to clear the market.

higher
Top Butts:

Prices will continue to show a firm tone going into September, trading independently from seasonal trends. Retail demand for middle-value beef items will remain strong, keeping Top Butts prices supported in coming weeks.

steady
Briskets:

Prices will continue to trade sideways during September, following seasonal price trends for the month. While demand for Briskets generally slows after Labor Day, tighter supplies will keep price a bit more supported.

Lower
Flap Meat:

Prices will shift to a softer tone going into September as residual demand post-Labor Day will be very limited, putting more loads of product on the market to be absorbed.

steady
Skirt Meat:

Prices will trade steady in coming weeks, defying the seasonal trend for values to trade lower after the official end of the summer grilling season. Retail features of Skirt Meat are significantly higher than both last week and same week last year, which will keep prices supported.

higher
Inside Rounds:

Prices will take on a stronger tone in September, even though prices typically range trade during the month. Strong demand from Foodservice in the face of tighter supplies will keep prices supported.

higher
Ground Chuck:

Prices will maintain a firm tone over the next several weeks, even though seasonal trends point to softening prices for September. Retail demand for quality ground product will remain elevated, keeping prices well-supported.

higher
81/19 Ground Beef:

Prices will continue to take on a strong tone in September as retail demand for Ground Beef will remain strong going into the fall. Lean trimmings prices remain near record levels, which will also work to keep prices well supported.

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POULTRY

POULTRY

Uncertainty is prevalent in most Chicken markets as we kick of the official start to football season. While WOGS and Breast Meat maintain a steady reading, wings are tugged by the ebb and flow of regional preferences.

steady
WOG’s:

Late-morning market input surrounding the middle-tiered WOGs brings with it premium-facing transactional activity which ultimately carries prices higher. That said, forward-looking sentiment remains somewhat varied. It is noted that asking prices for future delivery dates remain situated around current price points. The tone surrounding WOGS under 3 lbs. and over 4 lbs. remains steady with pockets of supply-side constriction noted on the former weight bracket.

steady
Breasts/Tenderloins:

Breasts and front halves continue to trade in an uneventful manner. The boneless breast markets are rated steady with slightly diminished acting as a cap on prices. A limited number of jumbo sellers are pushing for higher asked prices, but this bullish sentiment does not seem to reflect the position of the majority of the market. The same can be said for tenders.

steady
Wings:

Sales of wings are irregular across the country, and some participants suggest it may have to do with regional preferences for college and professional football. Certain producers have inked sales of jumbo offerings at a premium, while others are still forced to discount well below the market. Spot sales of medium and small wings haven’t been as prevalent as for jumbo, and the markets also appear less volatile at this time.

steady/higher
Thighs/Legs/Leg Quarters:

The back half of the bird continues to garner increased attention as retail demand keeps thigh and leg meats well-accounted for. Sales of bulk drums are transacted at a modest overage thanks in large part to a consistent call out of distributive and food service purchasing channels. Quotations for all other bone-in lines remain unchanged given a limited number of sales successfully made above the market. The relatively active domestic demand for bone-in items keeps supplies heading to export limited. Thigh and leg meat continue to be highly requested items despite seasonal expectations.

steady
Turkey Whole Birds:

HPAI concerns seem to be in the rearview as market makers look to manage growing inventories. A combination of moderate demand, high cold storage inventories, and rising production are keeping prices steady. Egg placements for July were the lowest in 10 years, which will lead to much lower slaughter rates come fall.

steady
Turkey Breast:

Breast markets are in a substantial oversupply environment. Reports have inventory positions at levels not seen since 2020. At current prices, sellers have found an active market overseas, which is putting a floor on domestic prices.

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PORK

PORK

Prices will continue to take on a balanced tone in coming weeks as the impact of tighter supplies and healthy demand will be offset by an increase in domestic pork production. The most recent USDA Cold Storage report pegged total pork inventories at the end of July at 10.2% BELOW the five-year average for the month. Domestic demand for pork will remain constructive overall in the near term with retail buying interest remaining strong while Foodservice demand will be more uneven. Export demand will continue to impress as buying interest from Asian markets will offset the more uneven purchasing bias from Mexico. The key to keeping the U.S. pork market in balanced is the wide expectations that pork production will pick up through the end of the year as packer margins remain strong and the supply of market hogs remains adequate.

steady
Bellies:

Prices will shift to a more balanced tone in coming weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Tighter inventories of bellies in cold storage confirm that demand from domestic buyers has improved.

steady
Loins:

Prices will continue to show a steady tone in coming weeks, respecting seasonal price trends. Demand from domestic buyers for center cut pork loins has been strong, however increased production of pork overall will keep prices in check.

Lower
Ribs:

Prices will continue to show a softer tone over the next several weeks, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Buying interest in medium spareribs has already softened post Labor Day and exports of Ribs overall is down 46% year-to-date.

steady
Butts:

Prices will trade mostly steady during September, respecting seasonal trends for this time of the year. While demand from domestic buyers will fall back in coming weeks, Asian export markets will be attracted to relatively low prices of U.S. Butts and keep prices in balanced.

higher
Hams:

Prices will continue to take on a strong tone over the next several weeks. Retail deli counter demand targeting back to school lunch boxes along with buying interest from Mexico for bone-in Hams will keep prices supported.

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SEAFOOD

SEAFOOD

Seasonal changes and yields are effecting the seafood outlook.

Lower
Blue Swimming Crab:

The market for blue swimming crab is unchanged. Supplies of mid-to-smaller grades continue to see the most downward pricing pressure. The pricing and availability of mid-to-small sized crab meat varies significantly between sellers, depending on individual inventory positions. On the larger grades, the undertone remains somewhat unsettled with both a few higher and some lower offers collected.

steady/higher
Farmed White Shrimp:

Importers continue to make the case for higher prices given the rise in costs throughout the supply chain, but demand remains the limiting factor. are steady.

higher
Farmed Black Tiger Shrimp:

Most this category appears steady, with supply generally tight and replacement difficult. The exception remains a somewhat softer bias to the very large headless shell-on.

Lower
Wild Gulf of Mexico Shrimp:

Fishing is done. The market remains wildly unsettled as it searches for a bottom.

steady
Warm Water Lobster Tails:

Brazil, Honduras, and Nicaragua are currently in open season, with the Bahamas and Florida set to open any day. While there is a good supply of large tails, there are shortages in the 5-8 oz sizes. Short Term: Price increasing

higher
Lobster Meat:

Market values remain stable to strong, with notable premiums emerging on specific frozen items due to ongoing high raw material costs and persistent inventory concerns. In some cases, replacement costs have surpassed current market prices because of the rapid rate of price increases. Short Term: Prices Firming

steady
Canadian Snow Crab:

The Snow Crab season commenced in early April. Although the Gulf quota has been diminished, the quota for Newfoundland is expected to remain unchanged. Supplies are consistent as is demand which is keeping the market well-balanced. Short Term: Steady Pricing

higher
Ahi/Yellow Fin Tuna:

The market is experiencing an upward trend driven by diminished supplies and heightened demand. Prices from Vietnam have escalated due to suboptimal catches, whereas Indonesian prices have increased due to elevated freight costs. Short Term: Prices increasing

steady/Lower
Pangasius/Swai/Basa:

The market has largely remained stable, with prices experiencing a moderate reduction attributable to decreased freight rates. Short Term: Price slight decrease

higher
Keta Salmon:

In Alaska, the peak period for keta landings has concluded, with only slightly over 40 percent of the forecasted amount being met by August 5, 2024. Harvesting is expected to persist through the fall. In Russia, while fishing has been slower this year compared to previous years, landings seem to be showing signs of improvement. The final landings for chum salmon remain uncertain, but it is evident that the global supply of salmon will be lower than last year. Short Term: Price increasing

Lower
Chilean Salmon:

Prices for farm-raised Atlantic salmon in Norway and Chile have reached their peak and are now beginning to decline. Short Term: price softening

Lower
Norwegian Salmon:

Prices for farm-raised Atlantic salmon in Norway and Chile have reached their peak and are now beginning to decline. Short Term: price softening

higher
Tilapia Fillets:

Overseas landings have been disappointing, with larger sizes becoming increasingly scarce. Smaller sizes are being harvested to meet demand, making large sizes harder to find. As a result, prices have risen due to the low supply, higher freight costs, and increased demand. However, we expect to see positive changes in the tilapia market by the end of the year.
Short term: Price increasing

higher
Scallops:

Pricing on U-10 Scallops has doubled this year over last. This is due to a 2023 season that saw the U-10 harvest at over 30% of the catch whereas this year it is less than 3%.  Current scallop availability is barely meeting the demand, we expect this trend to continue and pricing to remain firm.

Lower/steady
Catfish:

No change in live market price. We are seeing some activity of the unloading of dated product at a discount into the markets but believe that is not sustainable for much longer. Current industry sales and pricing are flat/ slightly down.

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DAIRY

DAIRY

Milk output is lower across the country but more temperate weather has helped bring level back in line with typical production levels. On the July milk report, the USDA revised dairy herds 10k head lower than the initial June estimate, but yields impressed at slightly better than last year and milk output was “only” 0.4% lower YOY. However, less milk coming to market continues to support prices given strong underlying demand for the limited supply. Even with the reduced volume of milk coming to market, stronger components are helping stretch that milk further and farmers are doing all they can to grow/maintain herd sizes. This trend has helped keep cream more available this year, with reports now hinting at improved availability. 3 HPAI outbreaks were confirmed in California this week, keeping prices firm as the market remains on edge heading into the fall.

steady
Milk / Cream:

Milk output is lower across the country but more temperate weather has helped bring level back in line with typical production levels. On the July milk report, the USDA revised dairy herds 10k head lower than the initial June estimate, but yields impressed at slightly better than last year and milk output was “only” 0.4% lower YOY. However, less milk coming to market continues to support prices given strong underlying demand for the limited supply. Even with the reduced volume of milk coming to market, stronger components are helping stretch that milk further and farmers are doing all they can to grow/maintain herd sizes. This trend has helped keep cream more available this year, with reports now hinting at improved availability. 3 HPAI outbreaks were confirmed in California this week, keeping prices firm as the market remains on edge heading into the fall.

steady
Butter:

The butter market is setting back from its recent calendar year highs, but remains rangebound. Despite record high prices for this time of year, end users remain strong buyers ahead of the upcoming fall/baking season demand window. Despite the lower milk production so far this year, the elevated milk components have kept more butterfat coming to market and allowed churns to run at stronger levels as cream is still available. Updated cold storage levels from the USDA showed that butter stocks seasonally declined from June in to July at a similar rate to 2023, keeping supplies in greater abundance and 7.4% larger that last year’s levels. The market remains on edge heading into the fall as fears of record high prices the last 2 years have kept forward contracting interest strong, but momentum is slowing.

steady
Cheese:

The cheese markets were starting to roll over from their recent highs before reports of 3 HPAI outbreaks in California pushed prices sharply higher. Also, a supportive cold storage report for cheese has kept the market trading above $2/lb. but overall buying interest has started to slow down. Reduced milk availability continues to plague the dairy markets at a time when everyone is scrambling for supply. Updated cold storage figures showed total cheese and American cheese stocks falling again this past month to 6% lower YOY. Margins over the past month, should start to skew production schedules back towards American and Cheddar styles, but the slower output in recent months is why prices remain well supported. Overall demand is expected to soften in the months to come as exports taper off due to the higher price environment for cheese, and consumers push back on higher restaurant and grocery costs.

steady/higher
Shell Eggs:

The shell egg market is finally correcting from their historically lofty levels.  Smaller flock sizes due to HPAI outbreaks the past few months have greatly limited nearby shell egg availability, but slower order interest and limited promotional activity are opening the door for lower prices in the coming weeks. Updated flock numbers from the USDA showed that table egg layers totaled 303.9 million as of August 1st, down 3.1% from last year.  With laying flocks well below recent years, this further reduces that amount of shell egg supply that should be coming to market and why prices have been so well supported.  Conventional inventories have struggled to build seasonally and are currently 9% below last year, but have increased each of the past 2 weeks. Cage free inventories were also higher the past 2 weeks, but are still 5% lower YOY. Longer term, the extremely favorable producer margins should incentivize flock expansion. As a leading indicator, eggs in incubators as of August 1st were up 10% from the prior year, while chicks hatched were 12% higher.

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GRAINS & OILS

GRAINS & OILS

Overall grain and oilseed markets are higher this past week after testing contract lows the prior week. Renewed support has come from hot and dry weather across the majority of the corn/soybean growing regions. While there is not as much yield risk given the maturity of the corn and soybean crops, inclement finishing weather can take the very top end off the record yield expectations for this season. Also limiting further downside has been a pick up in export demand for soybeans and corn, with prices getting back to a level that is much more competitive with S. America and the Black Sea. US harvest will start to ramp up in the coming month for corn and beans, providing the next potential for some seasonal pressure, but until then prices appear rangebound. Wheat values have been following a similar path, making new contract lows last week before building back in additional risk premium. Spring wheat harvest is now 70% complete and in line with average. Globally, wheat production ideas remain mixed. Slightly lower production estimates in Russia, and larger downward revisions out of the EU have kept global values steady to firm, despite larger expectations out of Australia and Canada this season. US wheat values are still not the most competitive, but concerns that Russia will not be able to maintain their near record export pace has kept US commitments running 33% above last year’s very slow levels. Wheat prices are a follower to global trends.

steady
Soybean Oil:

The soybean oil market has back off from its recent highs this week on the potential anti-dumping investigation between China and Canada on canola. This could pull additional demand away from US soy oil if Canada needs to discount canola to move extra product. However, current export and domestic demand have been running strong as soybean oil is competitive vs. alternative oils. Soybean oil basis offers remained firm in the front end but had a softer tone for the new crop as traders anticipate record crush through the balance of the year. South American soybean oil basis levels continued to firm with new recent highs for the move posted in both Brazil and Argentina. U.S. crushers should have a better opportunity to move excess soybean oil into the export market this season if necessary.

steady
Canola:

The new crop canola seed futures plummeted early this week on news that China was opening an anti-dumping investigation on Canadian canola. This is in response to recently imposed Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum, and would greatly change the typical export flows of canola seed out of Canada. RBD canola oil basis levels remained mostly steady last week and will need to remain competitive vs. soybean oil to maintain solid demand from the US bio industry out West.

steady/Lower
Palm Oil:

Spot palm oil futures are struggling to maintain their recent highs. Indonesia is preparing to implement a move to B40 biofuel blend on January 1st, up from B35 currently. If successful, this could remove approximately 3.0 million metric tons of palm oil going into the export market next year as more is consumed in country. However, with palm currently at a premium to soy on the world market, expect prices to feel pressure from slower export sales.

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PRODUCE

PRODUCE

DOWNLOAD THE MARKON FRESH CROP REPORT

higher
Asparagus:

High prices persist amid tight supplies and transitioning growing regions. Markon First Crop Asparagus (MFC) is available.

Mexico

  • Central Mexican production is nearly completely finished, with the Baja Peninsula taking over the lion’s share of production next.
  • Quality and shelf-life potential are below average; stalks are exhibiting elevated levels of seeder/feathering tips brought on by persistent heat and a lack of nighttime cooling
  • Baja production will continue through October, before growers in Sonora and Mexicali begin harvesting
  • While markets for all sizes are elevated, small, standard, and large sizes are sufficiently supplied, jumbo and extra-large sizes are more limited
  • Expect markets to soften as additional fields open up and a slight cooling trend arrives in the region by mid-month

 

Peru

  • Peruvian asparagus (shipped into Miami, Florida) remains available on the East Coast; yields are low but will increase as the Southern Hemisphere enters the spring season and temperatures increase
steady
Avocados:

The market is starting to inch down. The Flora Loca harvest is fully
underway; supplies are increasing. RSS Avocado Chunks, Halves, Pico de
Gallo Guacamole, and Pure Pulp are available.

steady/Lower
Bell Peppers:

California red bell peppers have transitioned to coastal regions; prices are slightly lower. Green bell pepper summer crops are starting to wind down across the country and will transition south in September. MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

 

Red Bells

  • California has transitioned to the coastal regions of Hollister, Oxnard, and Santa Maria
    • Quality is excellent and all sizes are available
  • Central Mexico production is light due to recent inclement weather
  • Canadian greenhouse volume remains low/steady due to reduced overall acreage
  • The East Coast produces very limited supplies of colored peppers
  • Markets are slightly lower this week

 

Green Bells

  • California’s coastal growing regions of Hollister and Santa Maria are past peak production
    • Quality is good, choice sizes are most abundant
  • Eastern growing regions, including North Carolina, Kentucky, and New Jersey will begin fall plantings in two to three weeks
  • Midwest will continue in good volume through the month of September
  • Markets are steady this week with multiple growing regions in play
Lower
Broccoli:

Broccoli

Expect prices to fall slightly in early September, then range from steady to lower through late September as acreage increases in California. Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli is being shipped out of Salinas, California; Markon Best Available is being packed in Mexico (into South Texas).

 

  • Markets are elevated amid strong demand
    • California supplies are increasing
    • Mexican stocks are snug
  • Varying levels of pin rot, branching, and yellowing persist but are decreasing in both areas
  • Regionally grown supplies are limited and being sold close to shipping points
    • The Eastern Canada, Maine, and New Jersey seasons are winding down
    • Indiana production has ended
    • New crop harvesting will start in Georgia by mid- to late September
  • Mexican-grown product (crossing into South Texas)
    • Supplies are available at an FOB cost savings
    • Hollow core defects from high heat are decreasing
Lower
Canteloupe & Honeydew Melons:

California’s San Joaquin Valley melon season is now past peak production;
prices are poised to inch up as volume decreases. Domestic MFC Cantaloupe
Melons are available.

higher
Cauliflower:

Markets are declining rapidly this week as supplies increase. ESS Cauliflower is available; the packer label is being substituted as necessary.

 

  • Supplies are increasing in the Salinas and Santa Maria Valleys
  • Demand has softened
  • Yields are on track for the current season; favorable weather will aid growth.
  • Quality is fairly good; fields affected by insect pressure are being avoided and disked to reduce the spread to healthier fields.
  • Markets are projected to remain at moderately lower levels through September.
steady
Cilantro:

Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Washed & Trimmed Cilantro is available.

 

  • Volume is on the rise as multiple growing regions are in play
  • Quality concerns are decreasing across Southern and Central California (Oxnard, Santa Maria, and Salinas Valley); thick stems, wide leaves, seeder/bolting, as well as damaged, yellow, and spotted leaves remain occasional issues
  • Cooler weather will further help to improve quality in early September
  • Expect prices to remain relatively steady amid strong supplies through the first two weeks of September
higher
Citrus:

The Southern California Marsh Ruby grapefruit season has ended. Persistently high temperatures has caused a premature end to the season. Expect a gap in supplies, as Rio grapefruit harvesting is not set to begin in the Southern California desert region until late October.

 

Southern California

  • Marsh Ruby production has ended
  • Desert Rio harvesting will start in late October
  • Expect a gap in supplies over the next six to eight weeks

 

Arizona/California Desert

  • The season is expected to start in late October
  • The Arizona/California growing region includes Brawley, California and Yuma, Arizona

 

Florida

  • The season will begin in early October
  • Expect size to be dominated by 48- and 56-count fruit
  • Suppliers will only pack U.S. No. 1 grade stocks

 

South Texas

  • The season will start in early November

 

Limes

Prices are substantially higher; volume is low as growers are working through older, lower-quality fruit. MFC and ESS Limes are available.

 

Veracruz, Mexico (into South Texas)

  • Persistent rains are limiting harvests and impacting quality; markets are escalating
  • Supplies remain dominated by large-size, 110- to 150-count limes; 200- to 250-count stocks are limited
  • Due to declining quality, growers are reporting lower yields
  • Expect rising markets and limited supplies for the next three to four weeks
  • New crop harvests are expected to begin by the second week of October
  • Markon recommends increased order lead time to avoid loading delays

 

Santander, Colombia

  • Limes are available for loading out of Florida
  • Prices are rising, trailing slightly behind Mexico
  • Quality is good; occasional scarring has been reported during grading
  • Expect markets to rise over the next two to three weeks in reaction to increased demand

California’s available Valencia supply continues to dwindle; some growers have already ended their season, and more will end over the next few weeks. Markon expects California to experience a supply gap on oranges in October until the Navel seasons begins in late October/early November.

 

California

  • MFC and ESS Valencia Oranges are available
  • Expect limited supplies for the next two months
  • Expect to make size and grade substitutions to fill orders
  • Quality is fair; early decay, soft fruit, and skin breakdown has been reported
  • New crop California Navels will begin shipping in late October
  • Expect elevated markets for the remainder of the Valencia season

 

Chile

  • Oranges are being imported into both the East and West Coasts
  • Expect import supplies to tighten as they continue filling the void from California
  • Quality is great
  • Expect rising markets as supplies tighten

 

Mexico

  • The season will begin in early November
  • The Early orange seedless variety will be available in both McAllen, Texas and Nogales, Arizona

 

Texas

  • Oranges will begin shipping in early November
  • Navels will be the predominate variety available, but Early oranges will be on the market also

Florida

  • New crop fruit will start shipping in late October and run through June 2025
  • Supplies are expected to be dominated by 100- to 125-count and larger packs
  • The majority of fruit will be choice and standard grades
steady
Cucumber:

Cucumber markets continue to be elevated due to very light supplies out of Mexico. Autumn transitions will occur in September.

 

  • Mexico supplies are limited this week
    • Some growers in Baja are dealing low yields caused by plant viruses while others are transitioning away from older fields
    • Central Mexico volume is light due to poor weather
    • Quality is hit or miss
  • The Midwest and East coast will transition south to fall growing regions in mid to late September
    • Michigan, New Jersey and New York continue with decent volume and will run a few more weeks, weather permitting
    • North Carolina autumn season is underway with good quality
    • Georgia’s main fall season is set to start September 25th
  • Expect elevated prices over the next two weeks during summer/fall transitions
higher
Green Leaf, Iceberg, & Romaine Lettuces:

Green leaf, iceberg, and romaine markets are slightly higher amid stronger demand and tighter supplies in Salinas, California.

  • MFC Premium Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine are available
  • California quality is very good
    • Burn, insect pressure, mildew, and seeder are being found periodically
    • Fusarium and sclerotinia disease pressure is impacting iceberg fields in particular, reducing harvestable yields
  • East Coast crop damages are minimal following Tropical Storm Debby; market spikes did not materialize
  • Demand is strengthening as schools resume
  • Expect slightly higher markets into September
Green Onions:

Green onion prices are elevated; supplies remain tight following persistent heat and sporadic thunderstorms in the primary growing region of Mexicali, Mexico.

 

  • Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Washed & Trimmed Green Onions are available; packer label may be substituted when supplies do not meet Markon specifications
  • Yields were reduced in early August by fast-moving storm systems that wiped out many mature lots
  • Persistent heat has slowed the growth of younger plantings, keeping industry stocks limited
  • Demand is strong for long-top green onions; stocks will tighten by week’s end
  • Ordering for quick turns is recommended through the rest of August
  • Expect markets to remain elevated for the next two weeks, as younger plantings mature and supplier inventories increase
Limes:

Persistent rains are reducing harvests and impacting quality in Veracruz, Mexico; prices are rising. MFC and Markon ESS Limes are available. 

 

Veracruz, Mexico

  • Rain is reducing harvests in the main growing region of Veracruz
  • Supplies are dominated by large-size 110- to 150-count limes; small stocks (200- to 250-count fruit) are limited
  • Quality is declining
    • Stylar, oil spotting, and skin decay are occasional issues
    • Shorter shelf-life may also become a factor due to thinner skins and higher juice content
  • The next bloom set will be ready for harvest by the second week of October, barring any extreme weather events
  • Expect markets to rise over the next two weeks
  • Markon recommends placing orders with increased lead time to avoid loading delays

 

Santander, Colombia

  • Limes are available for loading out of Florida
  • Prices are comparable to those in Mexico (loading in South Texas)
  • Quality is good; occasional scarring is being seen during grading
  • Expect markets to rise over the next two weeks as demand strengthens
Mixed Berries:

Blueberry supplies will be limited through August and September; expect rising prices and tightening supplies over the next month. Blackberry and raspberry stocks have stabilized.

 

Blueberries

  • Mexican supplies are sufficient
  • Demand is steady
  • Quality is good
  • Pacific Northwest volume has peaked
  • Offshore shipments are limited
  • Expect rising markets for the next month

 

Blackberries

  • California supplies are insufficient
  • Quality is fair; soft skins and red cells have been reported
  • Pacific Northwest supplies are limited due to wet weather
  • Prices will remain steady

 

Raspberries

  • Volume is starting to rise in Baja, Mexico
  • Quality is fair
  • Demand is steady; prices are trending downward
steady
Onions:

MFC Onions are available in the Northwest. Markets are starting to rise on yellow and reds as growers shift gears and direct harvested product to storage facilities, leaving lighter supplies of fresh run available. High-quality storage onions with solid skin sets are expected to start shipping in the next two to three weeks.

 

  • MFC Onion growers in Idaho, Oregon, Colorado, and Washington are in full swing with good supplies on all colors 
  • Utah-grown yellow onions have started this week with red and white to follow next week
  • Michigan is also in full swing with yellow and red; white onion volume is very minimal from this region
  • New York has started with light supplies of yellow while red onion harvests are expected to start next week; white onions are not available
  • Healthy onion crops and strong yields are expected this upcoming storage season; weather has been excellent for growing up to this point
Pears:

The California pear season is in full swing, with availability through October. New crop Bartlett pear harvesting started in the Northwest this week. Overall volume is projected to be lower than in past years and dominated by larger sizes; expect elevated markets.

 

California

  • The Sacramento River area’s Bartlett season has ended have
  • Lake County and Mendocino growing regions are in full swing; production should go through October
  • Initial estimates predict 20% lower volume than last year
  • Processor demand (canning) is down, allowing more availability for the fresh market
  • California suppliers ship 36-pound volume-fill packs; Washington suppliers use 44-pound cartons packed by count
  • Due to this pack difference, California ships approximately six to ten fewer pieces of fruit per unit compared to Washington

Oregon/Washington

  • Due to freezing spring temperatures, 2024 Northwest volume is down approximately 30%
  • Most damage occurred in the Wenatchee District North where yields are down as much as 60%
  • Yakima South was not hit as hard and is estimated to be 12% lower than last year
  • Expect tight supplies of 110-count and smaller fruit; 80- to 100-count sizes will dominate these crops
  • Suppliers pack and sell by the count as opposed to the volume-fill method used in California

Barlett Variety

  • Harvesting has begun and will run into January 2025
  • This will account for 30% of Washington’s crop
  • Volume is forecast to be 18% lower than last year

 D’Anjou Variety

  • The season will begin in early September and run through June 2025
  • This will account for 50% of Washington’s crop
  • Yields are expected to be 26% lower than last year
steady
Potatoes:

New crop, fresh-run MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Expect soft markets through the next few weeks.

 Idaho & Wisconsin

  • New crop production has ramped up
  • Early harvests have yielded large-sized potatoes

 

Michigan

  • New crop stocks are expected to start shipping in early November

 

Minnesota

  • New crop supplies will wrap up in late September

 

North Dakota

  • MFC Red and Yellow Potato harvesting is expected to start in early October

Quality

  • Fresh-run quality is strong; skinning and excess moisture will be observed
  • No. 2 supplies will increase once potatoes are shipped out of storage
steady/higher
Tomatoes:

Roma and round tomato production has increased due to better growing conditions in California and Central Mexico. Markets are easing. MFC Tomatoes are available.

 

California

  • Better temperatures (mid-90s) over the last two weeks have increased production and improved quality
    • Demand has eased
    • Supplies are more consistent, lowering markets
  • Romas are most abundant; fewer round tomato acres were planted
  • Growers continue to monitor plants as past heat waves may reduce yields during the late September season

 

Mexico

  • Central/Eastern Mexican round and Roma production (crossing into South Texas) has increased
  • Grape and cherry tomato yields are falling in Baja as some growers transition will transition to new fields over the next two weeks

 

East Coast

  • Southeastern supplies are limited due to fewer acres were plated for August
    • Quality is good
    • Tennessee and North Carolina stocks are tight, but expected to increase in September
    • Virgina’s grape/cherry volume is steady
    • Production is expected to start in Georgia by early October
  • Michigan has consistent summer production that should run until the end of September, weather permitting
  • Expect lower round and Roma prices over the next two weeks
steady
Strawberries:

The market is fairly steady. Santa Maria and Watsonville yields are average;
these seasons are past their peak. Santa Maria growers will harvest the fall
crop in early September. Quality is very good; fruit is plump, juicy, and deep
red. MFC Strawberries are available

higher
Squash:

Yellow squash supplies are tightening due to cool weather. Markets are increasing despite multiple summer growing regions in play. Expect higher prices on yellow squash and zucchini the week as demand begins to shift.

 

East Coast

  • Suppliers are harvesting in the New York and New Jersey growing regions, but rain and cooler weather has decreased production
  • Quality is good but rain has created some challenges
  • The North Carolina season will start next week
  • Due to Tropical Storm Debby, expect lower yields on yellow squash

 

Midwest

  • Lighter volumes on yellow squash; warmer weather in the forecast will increase volume

 

Baja, Mexico

  • Limited volume on yellow squash
higher
Watermelon:

California supplies are tightening due to sporadic quality issues. Prices will inch up until the Mexican new crop season starts in October.

MFC Asian-Cut Broccoli Crowns from the Salinas, California and Central Mexico growing regions are currently not available; Markon Best Available and packer label supplies will be substituted temporarily.  Salinas Valley broccoli crops are experiencing an uptick in insect activity.
    • Diamondback moth larvae are feeding on outer leaves and crowns before pupating and emerging as adult moths.
    • While it is common to see increased insect activity in the late summer/early fall, an extended period of above-average temperatures created ideal conditions that growers have struggled to keep in check.
    • Although harvesting and processing crews for commodity and value-added broccoli packs are working to cull any product that shows signs of insects/insect damage, they are often difficult to detect and can’t be avoided completely
  • Mexican-grown supplies are exhibiting similar defects from elevated insect pressure, with obvious evidence of insect damage in most packs.
  • Very thorough inspection and washing of commodity broccoli are highly recommended at the end-user level for the next two to three weeks.
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