Market Outlook

Prices are expected remain soft through the end of January in line with typical seasonal trends. As foodservice buyers step back, additional supply is being redirected into other sales channels.

Prices should stay fairly balanced over the coming weeks, even as seasonal pressure builds toward softer values. Strip loin supplies remain tight and the cut is competitively priced versus other middle meats, providing near-term support.

Prices are poised to maintain a softer tone over the next several weeks, with Prime and Choice–graded items facing the most pressure as post-holiday demand eases and supplies remain more than adequate.

January prices are likely to strengthen despite normal winter seasonality, as demand improves against a backdrop of tighter supplies.

Prices are poised to take on a firmer tone through January, supported by improving retail demand for roasting meats—particularly Top Butts—which should keep the market well supported.

Prices will continue to display a supportive tone into late January despite normal seasonal pressure, as foodservice promotions and LTO demand continue to support brisket values.

Prices are expected to remain firm through January, bucking typical seasonal patterns. Strong domestic demand, combined with limited availability of uncommitted supplies, should continue to support elevated values.

Prices are projected to trade sideways in January, in line with typical seasonal patterns. While supplies are set to tighten in the weeks ahead, demand is expected to remain moderate.

January prices are likely to continue to strengthen, supported by the seasonal pickup in round demand tied to roasting needs. Incremental foodservice demand this year should further underpin the market.

Prices are poised to maintain a strong tone in January, running counter to seasonal expectations. Strong retail demand for quality ground product, as consumers shift toward lower-value cuts, should keep the market well supported.

Prices are set to stay firm in the near term, with reduced cow slaughter and risks around imported beef availability underpinning lean trimming prices and sustaining elevated ground beef values.

Spot transactional activity for WOGs occurred across a wide range of values, with negotiations and finalized sales appearing both at and above current quotations. Trade sentiment was mixed, as some buyers secured their needs without difficulty, while others faced tighter supply conditions. This segment is currently rated as full steady, pending further developments.

Bone-in breasts and front halves remain supported, though significant trade activity was limited. Sellers with exposure to cutting and deboning channels expressed a more optimistic outlook compared to recent weeks. Moderate-volume transactions for jumbo and medium-sized boneless breasts were completed at premiums to current quotations, resulting in slightly higher pricing today. Spot availability ranges from adequate to barely adequate. Sellers with retail and distribution exposure show the strongest engagement. Tenderloins concluded the morning quietly, with supply indications suggesting barely adequate levels. Wings remain balanced overall, with demand ranging from fair to moderate. While some marketers report subdued interest, others maintain cautious optimism, citing seasonal value appeal.

Wing demand continues to trend upward in line with seasonal patterns. However, buyer hesitation at higher price points has kept the market unchanged.

Leg quarters, legs, and drumsticks are well covered, with additional retail and foodservice inquiries noted compared to last week. Thighs follow a similar trend, though isolated areas report barely adequate supply. Leg meat remains balanced and stable, while thigh meat is rated full steady. Active outreach for immediate delivery, combined with limited availability, has prompted some buyers to increase bids when necessary.

Sellers are allocating production based on buyer volume requirements. High-volume retail sales are being completed at discounted prices, while buyers seeking smaller volumes face difficulty securing supply. In contrast, quotations for consumer-sized breasts are increasing as buyers pay premiums in a short-supply environment. Institutional-sized breasts remain steady, though demand is less pronounced compared to consumer sizes.

Fresh and frozen breast meat offerings are limited, but purchasing activity has slowed, creating a slight lull in the market. Sellers maintain confidence in holding production, and transactions occur at values ranging from even market to slightly higher. Tenders remain in demand, though tight supplies continue to restrict open-market activity.

Prices are likely to stay soft in early January in line with normal seasonality. Retail bacon promotions offer support, but foodservice and QSR demand remains muted, with seasonal improvement expected later.

Prices are expected to hold a steady tone in January despite seasonal trends that typically point to softer values. Tight cold storage supplies should help offset the impact of seasonally weaker demand in the near term.

Prices are poised to hold firm in the near term, running counter to seasonal expectations. Tighter supplies continue to fuel competitive bidding for available product.

Prices are expected to shift toward a more neutral tone in the coming weeks, in line with normal seasonal patterns that typically bring more moderate values. Improved spot availability should be sufficient to offset steady demand from both domestic and export markets.

Prices are likely to take on a more balanced tone after the holiday-driven surge, aligning more closely with normal January seasonality. As holiday buying pressure fades, more ham product is becoming available in the spot market.

Prices continue to rise slightly as supply tightens. Expect pricing to steadily rise through Q1 as the impact of the Marine Mammal Protection Act remains unclear.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted in larger cooked tail-on sizes due to softer-than-expected retail sales. Outlook shows pricing to remain firm into the next season, which should start around March for most Asian producers.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on headless shell-on blocks. Outlook shows pricing to remain firm into the next season.

Catch remains soft with last year’s holdover inventory offsetting higher prices. Forward outlook remains stable to slightly higher.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High-volume sizes (5–8 oz) remain stable.

Cold water tails have stabilized; expect market to remain fairly stable until new season kicks off.

Prices have increased by approximately 2–3% week over week, which is likely to continue a stable upward trend through Valentine’s Day.

Meat remains stable, driven by lack of raw material in the market versus the abundance of frozen tails. Expect pricing to move higher through Mother’s Day.

Canadian snow crab remains stable at near-record high prices driven by lack of inventory and the loss of Russian king crab. Some deals on larger sizes are being noted.

Prices continue to rise slightly due to the lack of Russian product in the market.

Prices remain stable to slightly higher due to import costs and implementation of the MMPA impacting some importing countries.

Market remains stable; future pricing/forecast does not show any changes.

Salmon market has started its seasonal increase driven by the lack of product out of Canada and Chile entering lower production summer months. Expect availability strain on fresh through early February.

Salmon market has started its seasonal increase driven by the lack of product out of Canada and Chile entering lower production summer months. Expect availability strain on fresh through early February.

Fresh availability remains strained due to lack of Canadian production, the holiday’s impact on Europe’s production, and Chile entering their summer season. Expect pricing to rise steadily now through Lent.

Supply remains stable out of Asia; South and Central American supply remains strained and will likely be an issue through spring of 2026.

Market remains stable; future pricing/forecast does not show any changes.

Scallops continue to remain firm to higher in price week over week as larger size inventories dwindle and quotas for next year see a further reduction to near-record low numbers.

Pricing remains firm to higher week over week as Russian product remains left out of the European and U.S. supply chain. Expect continued price increases through Lent.

Pacific cod continues to rise slightly but remains a value compared to Atlantic cod.

Market remains stable; future pricing/forecast does not show any changes.

Milk production remains impressive, both in the US and in other major exporting countries around the world. The USDA’s November milk production report showed a massive 4.5% increase from last year and a new record for the month. Herds remain steady near the largest levels since 1993, keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, record monthly milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market and multiples trading at historically depressed levels. Class II demand is noting some softer demand from seasonal products, while overall supplies remain adequate.

The butter market has remained under pressure, and trading at levels not seen since early 2021. The market is still dealing with the burdensome amount of butterfat coming to market, which has been magnified by slowing seasonal Class II demand. Prices remain extremely competitive into the export market. The USDA’s updated cold storage report confirmed the solid demand, showing huge drawdowns in August – October, but those cold storge depletions slowed dramatically into November. Inventories are currently -1.5% lower YOY. Seasonally, prices tend to decline into the year end and early Q1 once the baking season stockpiling demand subsides, limiting rally potential nearby.

The cheese markets are testing new lows again this week, setting back to their lowest levels in 2 ½ years. Abundant cheap milk has kept cheese vats full and running hard. Total cheese output jumped 5.9% YOY in November, while American style production grew 5.6% YOY. The USDA’s cold storage report showed cheese stocks in line with expectations and 1.8% higher than last November. American cheese stocks were similarly 2% higher than last year. This market continues to rely on cheap export values to clear increased output, and that trend remains in full force with record exports in October. Softer global values, especially out of the EU, are keeping pressure on US values and creating a much more dynamic export market. Rallies will continue to struggle as it compresses the US export advantage, and prices should remain seasonally depressed into the weak Q1 period.

The shell egg market continued to press lower this past week given softer demand into the end of the year and retail orders only marginal at best. This has pushed egg availability into oversupply as buyers hold off on purchases until more of the Q1 lift is seen and shelf prices begin to reflect the dramatically lower wholesale price point. So far this migration season has seen a limited impact from HPAI outbreaks. Updated monthly flock data was released the prior week, showing the US table egg laying flock as of December 1st at 302.85 million (-3% vs. ’24 levels). Despite the flocks well below last year and historical average, shell egg supplies are readily available. Both leading indicators of further flock growth remain positive, with eggs in incubators up 10% from last year, while chicks hatched during November surged 11% YOY. The slower foodservice orders of late has kept the shell egg market on its heels, in the face of the typical year end holiday baking demand strength.

Soybean oil futures are consolidating near their recent lows as the trade continues to wait for the EPA’s biofuel mandate at some point in Q1. Increased rains in the Argentine forecast, and softer energy markets are also keeping prices subdued. Without forward visibility into biofuel demand, the market is rangebound amid seasonally building soybean oil supplies. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers were mostly steady last week.

The canola seed futures is finding support off its recent lows, continuing to take note the trade in the soybean complex. RBD canola oil basis levels have been mostly steady in limited trade over the past few weeks.

The spot palm oil futures has struggled to push lower despite expectations for Malaysia’s December palm oil inventories to have risen to their highest level in almost seven years, as strong monthly production overpowered a modest improvement in exports, a Reuters survey showed. Palm remains the cheapest veg oil in the world, and as such should start to drive additional export interest.

Prices are easing; supplies are increasing out of the Caborca, Mexico region. After months of scarcity, jumbo and extra-large sizes are available.

Mexico

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available
• Jumbo and extra-large spears are available in the region of Caborca
  • Consistent crossings are expected
  • Quality is excellent
  • Spears are firm with good color and tight tips
• Baja production is winding down for the season; a short window will reopen in April before the main season ramps up again in the fall
• Expect lower pricing to continue through February, at minimum

Peru

• Peruvian production is winding down weekly, by design, to account for the new crop season in Caborca, Mexico
• Size profile is increasing, jumbo and extra-large spears are becoming more prevalent
• Quality is good
  • Spears are firm with minimal spreading/seeding
  • Peruvian shelf-life is shorter after longer transit times
• Expect pricing to decline, mirroring the Mexican market

Prices are expected to ease over the next several weeks as demand falls and the Mexican sprout season ramps up. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Brussels Sprouts are sporadically available; packer label is being substituted where needed.

• The Salinas season has ended; production out of Mexico will increase over the next several weeks
• Imported Guatemalan sprouts remain available at South Texas and Florida shipping points; Mexican imports will steadily increase throughout this month
• Overall supplies are expected to increase by mid-January
• The quality of remaining product harvested in California is fair at best; discoloration, puffiness, and seeder remain in current market supplies
• Quality on upcoming Mexican product is great
• Expect gradual price relief and better availability over the next several weeks with load volume out of Mexico by late January

The offshore melon market is experiencing tight supplies as weather-related challenges earlier in the growing cycle continue to impact production. Availability remains inconsistent; markets are expected to stay firm as the industry works through supply constraints.

Cantaloupe-Central America

• Offshore supplies are tightening due to earlier weather impacts across the region
• Reduced arrivals are expected to impact the East Coast in mid-January, with California and Northeast ports following approximately one week later; some programs may see impacts into mid- to late February
• Current sizing is leaning toward 9- and 12-count, with limited jumbo fruit available
• Recent arrivals are showing good internal quality with fruit mostly firm to hard
• Brix levels range from 12–14%
• Markets are expected to remain firm due to lighter production and limited larger fruit

Honeydew-Central America

• Honeydews are expected to be the primary challenge over the next several weeks as supplies transition from low to extremely limited
• The completion of Northern Mexican production has increased reliance on offshore fruit
• Flexibility in sizing will be necessary to navigate supply constraints
• Current sizing is primarily 6- and 8-count, with very limited availability of 5-count and larger fruit
• Weaker fields and lower yields are expected to keep this sizing trend in place
• Northern Mexico is expected to come back online mid-January, which should help relieve some pressure

West Coast carrot supplies are tightening. Availability will be limited for the next two weeks due to weather-related issues that are reducing yields. Commodity pack prices are rising.

• The San Joaquin Valley season is experiencing lower-than-average yields
  • Harvesting delays are being caused by rain and muddy fields
  • Both commodity and processed packs are impacted
• Supplies will increase once conditions improve over the next two weeks
• Additional order lead-time is suggested (72 hours) due to the limited stocks

Florida-grown cucumbers are limited; Honduran imports are increasing in Florida. Markon First Crop (MFC) Cucumbers are available.

• Florida-grown supplies will remain limited for several months
• Honduran-grown stocks are increasing (arriving in Florida ports)
• Mexico supply has strengthened with good overall quality and condition from new fields in Sinaloa
• Expect markets to remain steady at lower levels over the next two weeks

Elevated prices will persist for all fresh-cut Markon First Crop (MFC) and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Celery through mid-February due to extreme weather that has reduced California celery yields.

• California celery fields experienced significant storm events in November and again during Christmas week, including up to six inches of rain over a four-day period, accompanied by sustained winds nearing 60 mph
• As much as 55% of processor-variety celery was lost, greatly impacting availability
• Markon’s grower-partners thankfully have diversified celery programs utilizing several different varieties across multiple states, allowing them to shift orders and meet Markon demand
• Quality has been impacted; wind-related twisting and damage are being reported
• Another storm is forecast for the Oxnard, California region over the next nine days; Markon will update any changes as they occur

Expect prices to remain steady for the next two weeks, then slowly start to decline when Chilean grape shipments increase on the West Coast.

California

• MFC Lunch Bunch Grapes will ship through late January
• Green and red seedless grape shipments have ended
• Quality is good; some decayed fruit is being reported
• Expect markets to remain steady until the season ends

Offshore/Peru/Chile

• Green and Red Seedless Grapes have begun shipping
• Packer label portioned grapes will enter the market in late January
• MFC Lunch Bunch Grapes will become available in mid-February
• Quality is good; some soft/damaged fruit is being reported
• Expect elevated pricing through January, then lower markets in February

Prices remain elevated and are expected to continue climbing through January as quality challenges and reduced supplies persist. MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Limes are available.

Mexico (into South Texas)

• Pricing remains on an upward trajectory as quality challenges continue to limit overall availability
• Large sizes (110- through 175-count fruit) remain more prevalent, while small sizes (230- and 250-count limes) are increasingly limited week to week
• Older-crop fruit is struggling with skin breakdown, oil spotting, and occasional stylar-end issues following rain events, resulting in reduced shelf-life and limiting pack-outs
• New-crop supplies are tighter than anticipated due to a smaller bloom drop, reducing yields and limiting availability
• Crews are conducting additional grading to maintain quality standards, increasing costs across all sizes amid lower yields and elevated labor expenses
• To ensure on-time delivery, substitutions to packer-label product may be requested

Colombia

• Packer label limes are available for loading out of Florida
• Rainfall continues with no major supply disruptions reported
• Sizing is well-balanced
• Export volume to increase amid stronger international pricing and lower yields from other origins

Hawaii

• A large grower is developing a dedicated Hawaiian lime program, supported by a focused and expanding acreage footprint, for shipping to US mainland, Canada and other countries
• The program is not yet cleared to ship into the U.S. mainland; product is currently approved for shipment into Canada
  • Product is expected to be approved for shipping to US Distribution Centers by July 2026
• The crop is 100% irrigated, driving excellent internal quality and strong juice content
• Internal color is notably darker green than typical Mexican limes, translating to rich juice quality

Demand has increased for yellow onions following reduced production during the holidays; prices are higher. White onions remain limited; markets are rising. Red onion supplies are adequate; expect steady prices.

Washington, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Colorado

• MFC Onions are available
• Storage red and yellow supplies are adequate; white onion volume is low
• Quality ranges from good to fair; translucent layers, soft texture, bruising, and decay are occasional issues
• Expect slightly higher yellow onion pricing over the next 7-10 days; markets will then begin to decrease as production catches up with demand
• White onion pricing is expected to increase over the next one to two weeks

The California Navel crop is dominated by large sizes; small fruit (88-, 113-, and 138-count oranges) are becoming extremely limited. Size and grade substitutions will soon be requested to fill orders; the Cara Cara and Mandarin varieties are options.

California

• MFC and ESS Navel Oranges are available 
• Overall supplies of 88-, 113-, and 138-count oranges will be extremely limited through the balance of the Navel season and into the Valencia season that starts in May
• California Cara Cara oranges and Mandarins will be viable substitutions for West Coast orders
• Mexican, Florida, and Texas juice oranges will also be options
• Navel quality is very good; sugar levels range from 12-13 Brix
• Expect elevated markets for choice and fancy grade fruit as well as small fruit (88-, 113-, and 138-supplies)

Mexico

• Early sweet oranges are available in Nogales, Arizona
• Great quality is forecast; sugar levels will range from 12-13 Brix
• Prices will be comparable to those in Florida and Texas

Florida

• The new crop Valencia season will begin in late January
• Stocks will be dominated by 138-count and smaller sizes
• Fair quality is predicted; the majority of fruit will be choice and standard grades
• Prices will be comparable to those in Mexico and Texas

Texas

• Valencia oranges will ship through April
• Quality is good; sugar levels range from 11-12 Brix

Expect steady markets and tight supplies

Most California strawberry growers will not harvest this week due to damage; supplies are extremely limited.

Santa Maria/Oxnard, CA

• Growers will not harvest this week for shipments out of California
• Strawberries shipping out of California will be brought from Mexico to fill orders; Mexican consolidated berries will have 48 to 72 hours of reduced shelf-life due to transfer times from Mexico to California
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns
• Markon DCs are advised to load out of South Texas or Florida, if possible
• Expect strong demand and elevated markets for the next two weeks

Mexico/South Texas

• Volume will increase through mid-January
• Size is small-medium (19 to 25 berries per 1-pound clamshell)
• Quality continues to improve weekly as peak season nears
• Expect elevated pricing and tight stocks as Mexico helps fill orders from California

Florida

• MFC Strawberries are available
• Volume is rising
• Quality is improving; concerns include white shoulders and green tips
• Size is small-medium (17 to 25 berries per 1-pound clamshell)
• Expect pricing to inch up as Florida supplements California shortages