Market Outlook

Prices look set to hold a neutral tone through May, running counter to the usual seasonal firming. Retail interest in Ribeyes has been slow to ramp up ahead of grilling season, and foodservice demand looks likely to stay subdued.

Prices are expected to remain rangebound over the next several weeks, consistent with normal seasonal trends. While demand should stay solid with grilling season underway, consumers may increasingly shift toward better-value middle meats.

Prices should stay supported as inelastic demand from certain foodservice segments meets tight supplies. Tenderloins are also trading below their normal ratio to strip loins in recent months.

Prices should stay well supported in the weeks ahead, lifted by the usual seasonal climb heading into summer. Tri-tip continues to gain traction, drawing growing interest from grilling enthusiasts and foodservice buyers alike.

Prices should continue trending higher into May as tight beef supplies meet more aggressive retailer buying. Sirloin steaks will draw interest at the meat case from consumers facing sticker shock on middle meats.

Prices are projected to maintain their firm tone in the weeks ahead, holding to the typical seasonal pattern for this time of year. Brisket demand remains strong across both retail and foodservice channels, helping to underpin prices against a backdrop of limited available supply.

Prices are expected to remain strong heading into June, in line with typical seasonal trends. The foodservice sector will continue to bid aggressively amid limited supply, helping to keep prices well-supported.

Prices will remain firm through the end of May, in line with the typical seasonal pattern for this time of year. Retail demand is expected to remain robust, keeping both demand and prices well supported.

Prices should stabilize heading into June, supported by typical seasonal trends. Recent declines have created a strategic buying opportunity, allowing purchasers to secure supplies at attractive levels.

Prices have held steady well above both year-ago and five-year averages, and should stay supported as demand for quality ground product is expected to grow heading into grilling season.

Prices should maintain a strong tone through May as strong retail demand for ground beef meets persistently low domestic cow slaughter, with retail and foodservice demand set to pick up in the coming weeks.

Whole birds are trading under a steady tone. Light and heavy offerings are moving within a generally supportive range, with spot availability described as barely adequate to adequate across most channels. Middle-weight categories remain short of spot requirements, prompting sellers with limited supply to advance their asking levels with success.

Conditions in the jumbo and medium boneless breast market remain irregular and highly dependent on the supplier. Combo-bin product continues to face the greatest downward pressure, though boxed product is also experiencing modest discounting. Retail and foodservice demand continues to soften, and distributors are approaching procurement with heightened cost sensitivity. Negotiations reflect a wide range of concessions, and market quotations adjust accordingly. Select-sized offerings are well cleared, with supply trending toward the tighter end of the spectrum, supporting at least a steady tone. Tenders remain balanced, with no significant market-moving developments noted.

Downward pressure persists for jumbo wings. Medium wings are testing for stability at current levels, while feedback on small wings indicates that supplies are less visible than in recent weeks, supporting firmer asking levels.

Deboning demand continues to actively absorb bone-in product, with legs and thighs receiving the most consistent interest. Supplies are limited, enabling sellers to maintain firm positions on available production. Leg quarters and drumsticks also benefit from active demand. Thigh meat and leg meat remain well accounted for, with constrained spot availability prompting purchasers to increase bids in order to secure product.

Frozen whole turkey supplies are tight, but buyer hesitancy tied to seasonal timing is limiting upward movement. Most frozen tom parts (drums, wings, necks, tails) are under broad downward pressure due to very slow demand.

Fresh breast meat shows inconsistent signals, with some support but also indications of lower-priced product entering the market. Frozen tenders are trending lower, while fresh tenders remain supported.

Prices should begin finding support after easing in recent weeks, consistent with the typical seasonal softening from February through early May. Both retail and foodservice buyers are likely to find good value at current levels and adopt a more aggressive purchasing bias.

Prices should remain balanced through May, as better-than-expected hog slaughter is offset by rising grilling-season demand, with loins offering solid value versus beef.

Prices will continue to firm into June as retail demand rises seasonally while pork production tapers lower. Spareribs retail features the week of May 8 were nearly double the same week last year.

Prices should continue to trade with a firm tone as domestic demand has picked up significantly while spot load availability remains tight. Grilling demand will keep underpinning prices into June, and any improvement in export demand could push Butts to test last year’s high.

Prices should stay balanced heading into June, in line with seasonal trends. Export demand for bone-in hams remains robust, with shipments to Mexico running strong. Boneless ham supplies are adequate, supported by disappointing domestic demand.

Prices are rising slightly as supply tightens, with further increases possible as regulatory impacts become clearer.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, supported by lower inbound costs from India offsetting higher costs from Central America. Outlook suggests pricing should hold steady or ease slightly, with fuel costs limiting further reductions.

Black tiger shrimp remains steady overall, with some softer levels noted on headless shell‑on and smaller sizes. Pricing is expected to remain flat or trend slightly lower, constrained by elevated freight fuel costs.

Pricing remains firm to slightly higher heading into Lent, with large sizes extremely tight to unavailable due to regulatory restrictions in key harvest areas.

Warm water lobster has stabilized, with some softer offers appearing in larger sizes. High‑volume sizes remain steady and show signs of upward pressure as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at elevated levels with tight supply across all sizes. Some downward pressure may emerge as the market approaches May.

Live cold‑water lobster pricing remains high and stable with tight supply, with slight downward pressure anticipated closer to May.

Lobster meat pricing remains elevated and steady, with tight supply across all sizes and early signs of easing expected later in the spring.

Canadian snow crab remains extremely tight as the new season begins, keeping pricing elevated and product scarce, especially in larger sizes.

Prices have leveled off amid continued absence of Russian supply. Some sizes remain scarce, though product is generally available.

Prices remain steady, though several producing countries are experiencing quality and consistency challenges.

Market remains steady with no significant changes expected in the near‑term outlook.

Frozen salmon has leveled off at current levels, with expectations for softer pricing in early June.

Market remains steady at current levels, with softening anticipated in early June.

Wild salmon season begins soon, with availability expected to fluctuate as fishermen shift effort toward salmon fisheries.

Supply remains steady from Asia, while Central and South American supply remains strained and is expected to stay tight through spring of next year.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Scallops remain firm overall, though some sizes have softened in demand. Lower quotas suggest any cost relief will likely be temporary.

Prices continue to rise as global availability remains strained, with key sizes and cuts being allocated and relief not expected until later in the quarter.

Pacific cod has tightened as buyers shift away from higher‑priced Atlantic cod. Still a relative value, but key sizes remain limited.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Season is active, though availability may be inconsistent as fishermen transition to wild salmon with the upcoming opener.

Milk production remains impressive, and is still trending steady to higher across the country as we approach peak spring flush season. US milk production report showed a healthy 2.3% increase in March vs. the prior year and another 8k head added to domestic dairy herds from last month. This is the largest US herd since 1993 and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, stronger YOY milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while increased demand has kept them from becoming burdensome.

The butter market is seeing large buying activity as prices push back to their lowest levels since early February. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard. This has been magnified by the stronger butterfat component within the milk, pushing even more cream onto the market. The USDA confirmed the elevated production levels as updated data showed March butter output up 1.2% from the prior year . However, the cheaper prices earlier this year did support better domestic and global demand, keeping US cold storage levels limited and -11% YOY (March).

The cheese markets are rangebound again this week. Impressive milk output has helped keep cheese vats full and running hard. This was confirmed by the USDA as updated production data showed March cheese output up 1.2% from the prior year and setting a new record for the month. Italian style production saw the largest increases, while American and Cheddar output was slightly lower YOY at -2.3% and -2% respectively, as manufacturers shifted schedules to meet export commitments. Stronger dairy margins of late should continue to limit dairy cow slaughter and keep plenty of milk coming to market during the spring flush season. Cold storage figures from the USDA showed that March stocks of all cheese, and American styles, have struggled in the early seasonal build period and are both the smallest for the month since 2020. Additional cost pressure on consumers should be a headwind to rallies.

The shell egg markets are rebounding from their multi-year lows this week as restocking demand pick up and cheaper shelf prices support retail demand. Overall flocks are still more than adequate as updated monthly flock data showed the US table egg laying flock as of April 1st at 307.2 million head, down 6 million from last month (normal seasonal) but +5% YOY. Seasonality would suggest softer prices into the summer months, but with prices already historically soft, further downside appears limited as flocks are likely to contract further. Updated cage free layers for April showed little movement as flocks were only 172k head larger than the prior month as the historically small premium to conventional eggs continued to slow further cage free conversion efforts.

Soybean oil futures are seeing a modest correction on weakness in the soybean markets after initial reports from the Trump – Xi meeting this week that China is unlikely to buy any more beans for the 25/26 season. Energy market volatility remains a supportive feature as higher energy prices allow biofuel producers to pay more for edible oils and still maintain a margin. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remain firm through Q3 as crushers look for tighter stocks ahead.

The July canola seed futures is leaking lower this week as it follows the minor selloff in the soybean complex. Statistics Canada put end of March canola seed stocks at 10.0 million metric tons compared to 7.8 million last year. RBD canola oil basis levels remain firm as demand for biofuel remains strong.

The June palm oil futures saw sizeable declines this past week, amid seasonally rebounding production and larger stocks nearby. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board put their end of April palm oil stocks at 2.31 million metric tons, up 1.7% from March. However, Malaysian palm oil prices are likely to struggle to push lower into the summer as higher energy prices from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran boost biodiesel demand and tighten supplies.

Although still higher than normal, broccoli and cauliflower prices are starting to inch down.

Broccoli 

• The Salinas and Santa Maria markets are starting to ease gradually
  • Higher temperatures are increasing growth and overall supply levels
  • Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli started shipping on May 11
  • Quality ranges from fair to good
  • Diamondback moth pressure has diminished due to cooler weather
• MFC Broccoli is available from Mexico (into South Texas), but stocks are tightening slightly; growers will start shipping out of Salinas in mid-May
• Ideal weather should help supplies mature, increasing overall supplies
  • Quality ranges from fair to good
  • Diamondback moth pressure has diminished due to cooler temperatures

• East Coast production is underway in North and South Carolina
  • Indiana harvests will begin at the end of May, followed by the Maine season in July
  • Despite the increased supplies, prices will remain elevated due to high freight costs

Cauliflower

• California supplies have greatly increased in Salinas and Santa Maria
• East Coast growers are harvesting in Georgia and the Carolinas
• Expect easing prices through next week

Increased domestic chile production eased pricing for some varieties. MFC Chile Peppers are available.

Mexico

• Supplies are increasing as new growing regions come online, but overall supply remains below normal
• Jalapeno and tomatillo markets have dropped sharply over the past few weeks due to higher volume
• Anaheim and Serrano prices are inching down slightly, while Poblano markets remain elevated
• Red Fresnos will remain extremely limited for the next three to four weeks; limited plantings and poor quality have reduced yields dramatically

United States

• Several weeks of harvesting in Texas have significantly lowered prices for Jalapenos and tomatillos
• Steady supplies out of California will continue to push down prices for most varieties
• The Florida season is wrapping up next week, while Georgia production remains two weeks away; lower East Coast pricing is driven more by weak demand than by significant supply levels
• The California desert season is underway; San Joaquin Valley production will begin in mid-June
• Expect most chile varieties to return to normal volume by June

East Coast cucumber supplies are limited as the Florida season has ended, and production is getting a slow start in Georgia. MFC Cucumbers are sporadic; packer label may be substituted.

• The Florida season has ended
• Georgia production has started slowly, but recent rains has delayed harvesting
  • Volume is low
  • Production is expected to increase moving forward
• Mexico stocks are moderate out of the Sonoran growing region
  • Production will run through May
  • Quality is average; mechanical damage is being culled during the grading process
  • The Baja season is getting underway
    • Yields are low but will increase
    • Quality is very good
• Expect the market to remain steady this week and start to ease next week

Blueberries are becoming more readily available. Although the Mexican season is moving past peak production, California’s San Joaquin Valley season is ramping up, and East Coast growers are shipping out of Georgia and Florida. Raspberry and blackberry supplies remain steady overall, but rising temperatures are beginning to impact quality in some areas.

Raspberries/Blackberries

• Mexican-grown supplies are past their peak; labor issues are also tightening availability
• Heat has affected these crops for over three weeks, causing some leaking and soft skin
• The Baja season has begun with improved quality
• Stocks will increase through June
• Expect markets to remain fairly steady

Blueberries

Mexico

• High temperatures persist, some reaching 95 degrees
• Volume has increased 10% since last week
• Quality is good; some early breakdown has been reported
• Expect pricing to ease

Florida/Georgia

• The season is getting a late start due to earlier weather events
• Limited production has started in Georgia
• Quality is very good
• Markets will inch down

California’s San Joaquin Valley

• Harvesting is underway
• Ample volume and great quality are being reported
• Pricing will fall

Large sizes make up most of the California Valencia orange crop; 56- through 88-count fruit is most abundant. Unfortunately, small sizes (113- through 138-count) are in very limited supply. Unseasonably early rains have caused the fruit to grow faster than anticipated. Expect high prices and extremely tight, small-sized oranges through early October. Markon highly recommends prioritizing importing oranges from South Africa, Chile, and Uruguay to ensure orders for small fruit.

Valencia

• MFC and Essentials (ESS) Valencia Oranges are on the market
• Markon is anticipating an extreme shortage of small-sized fruit (113- through 138-count oranges) through October
• Size, grade, and country of origin substitutions will be needed to fill orders during this period
• Imported oranges are highly recommended during this period to help alleviate California shortages
• Expect high prices and tight supplies through October

MFC Potatoes are available in Idaho and Washington. Markets for larger 40 to 80-count sizes are rising as the crop is shifting to smaller sizes. Markon recommends ordering for quick turns and keeping inventories tight due to shorter shelf-life.

Idaho

• Storage crop MFC Norkotah and Burbank Potatoes are being shipped
• Norkotah storage supplies are expected to be depleted by late June
• Burbank volume is slowly ramping up; the crop is dominated by small sizes
• The gradual shift from Norkotahs to Burbanks will result in fewer 40- through 80-count potatoes
• Pressure and shoulder bruising are beginning to show in late-season storage supplies, but overall quality remains strong; these issues (soft, external indents) result from constant contact with adjacent potatoes, or the floor, while raw product sits in storage piles

Washington

• Storage crop MFC Norkotah Potatoes are available
• Size is dominated by larger counts
• Quality is very good
• Markets are slightly higher for larger sizes due to increasing demand

Colorado & Wisconsin

• All Colorado sizes are available with good mixer volume; demand for large, 40- and 50-count supplies, is active
• Wisconsin yields are dominated by small, 90- to 120-count sizes
• Quality is good
• Prices are holding steady but poised to rise

Tomato prices continue to drop. Roma and round tomato production has increased in Florida. Volume is climbing in Mexico’s Jalisco and Baja Peninsula growing regions.

Rounds

• Florida
  • Central Florida yields are increasing
  • Production will continue for another three to four weeks
  • The Florida Panhandle, South Georgia, and South Carolina seasons will begin in early June
• Mexico
  • New crop Jalisco fields are yielding ample supplies; quality is very good
  • Baja volume will increase through May
• California’s San Joaquin Valley season will start in mid-June
• Weak markets are expected over the next few weeks

Romas

• Florida
  • Central Florida production is high
  • Quality is very good
  • Expect lower markets in the coming weeks
• Mexico
  • Jalisco and the Baja stocks are increasing
  • New crop quality is very good
  • Prices are much lower this week

Grape and Cherry

• Florida
  • Central Florida stocks are ample
  • Quality is good
  • Markets are starting to ease and will fall further through May
• Mexico
  • Baja yields are steady; quality is very good
  • Sonora production is underway
  • Expect steady to low prices in May