Market Outlook

Seasonally strong demand and constrained supplies are expected to keep market conditions well supported in the coming weeks, with holiday demand continuing to provide momentum. Meanwhile, conventional bone-in ribeye retail featuring declined significantly from the previous week and remains below historical levels.

Market fundamentals are expected to remain supportive through year-end, driven by strong holiday demand and constrained supplies. Recent buying activity has been notably active, reflecting continued confidence in the market and reinforcing a firm outlook in the weeks ahead.

Prices have moved lower on softening retail demand as buyers trade down to lower-value items, though tenderloins’ compelling relative value at current levels should prompt a shift toward more aggressive buying interest.

Prices are expected to take on a more neutral tone heading into October following recent strength, as grilling demand fades and retail buyers redirect their focus away from tri-tips toward other beef items.

Market conditions are expected to remain steady through year-end, with buyers continuing to provide support as needed. Meanwhile, retail demand has shown signs of moderation, as reflected by a slight year-over-year decline in September grocery store sirloin steak activity.

Market conditions are expected to remain under pressure in the coming weeks, with fundamentals pointing to a softer trend. Meanwhile, brisket continues to receive exposure through promotional activity at several national foodservice chains including Panda Express, Jimmy John’s, Arby’s, Taco Bueno, and Chipotle, helping to support product visibility and consumer engagement.

Prices are expected to remain soft, tracking their typical seasonal trajectory, with annual lows historically established in the latter half of October as demand eases and supplies build, leaving little in the way of near-term catalyst for a meaningful recovery.

Prices are set to turn rangebound after the recent rally, with typical October seasonal softness taking hold and retail carcass trade-down activity from higher-value items slowing at current levels.

Prices are expected to maintain a softer tone through October, in line with typical seasonal trends. Demand for rounds tends to moderate in the fall, which should keep inside round prices trading within a relatively narrow range in the near term.

Prices have declined in recent weeks, consistent with the typical post-Labor Day seasonal pattern. Demand for the chuck primal is expected to remain strong heading into the holiday season, providing ongoing support for Ground Chuck prices.

Prices have taken on a steady to softer tone heading into November, though any decline through year-end is expected to be gradual. Cow slaughter has already begun its seasonal increase, adding additional loads of lean trimmings to the market.

WOGs continue to move steadily through traditional retail and processing channels, with most production placed through established outlets. While overall availability remains sufficient, some suppliers report a tighter supply of smaller birds, particularly in the 3.5 lbs./down category, where inventories are occasionally described as limited. Market conditions remain stable as participants await additional buying interest and transactional activity to provide further direction.

Bone-in breasts continue to exhibit a steady tone, supported by consistent trade activity and generally stable demand. Spot buying interest ranges from fair to moderate, while front halves remain more variable, with transaction levels differing by participant and market position. Within the boneless breast segment, jumbo-sized production continues to find support through moderate to active trading, though some pockets of softness persist. Overall, the market remains balanced as buyers and sellers work through current supply levels. Medium-sized boneless breasts face ongoing pressure as ample availability meets cautious purchasing interest, leading to increased flexibility among sellers. Meanwhile, the tender market remains relatively quiet, with limited demand from foodservice and further-processing channels restricting spot activity. Despite slower movement, overall market conditions remain stable.

Wings continue to search for marketing momentum at discounts to our quotations. Here, seasonally subdued outreach efforts and fully adequate supplies leave sellers with little recourse but to walk back their asked-price expectations when necessary. We rate these lines as barely steady.

The back half of the bird continues to benefit from generally supportive market conditions. Export-focused suppliers report increased inquiry activity following recent developments in Brazil; however, these discussions have yet to result in meaningful changes to overall market dynamics. Legs, thighs, drumsticks, and leg quarters remain on steady footing, supported by balanced supply and demand. Leg meat activity has been somewhat mixed, with transactions occurring across a range of market levels, while thigh meat continues to demonstrate stable demand and solid support. Overall, the back-half complex remains well-positioned with little change in direction.

Frozen whole hen trading remains limited, with transactions occurring intermittently amid constrained availability. Production continues to be difficult to source, resulting in uneven market activity and a generally firm undertone. In the tom market, sellers are marketing product with confidence, though buyer participation remains selective. As a result, overall trading activity remains measured. Fresh turkey production continues to move at a slow pace, while consumer- and institutional-sized breast meat remains well absorbed through established channels. Demand for these items remains steady, supporting balanced market conditions.

Fresh tom breast meat continues to move through the market at a steady pace, supported by consistent demand and orderly trade activity. Frozen tom breast meat has drawn increased buyer interest; however, limited spot availability has restricted overall movement. Despite the heightened attention, market conditions remain balanced as available supplies continue to be absorbed through established channels.

Prices have softened sharply in recent weeks as retail and foodservice demand weakens, with national chains pivoting toward value at the expense of premium items. Short-term rallies are possible, but the trend through year-end remains soft.

Prices are trading near record lows despite strong overall loin exports, with boneless sirloins seeing limited international buying interest. Domestic retail buyers are expected to step up in the coming weeks as current price levels offer compelling value.

Prices are poised to trade steady to lower as higher production gradually builds supply against moderate demand. Regular sparerib features edged lower on the week while St. Louis style spareribs surged to 2,242 stores from just 114 the prior week and 529 in the same week last year.

Prices are expected to trade steady to lower in line with seasonal trends, with butts continuing to offer compelling relative value and increased retail featuring activity expected to provide a degree of downside support.

Prices are set to trade steady to softer as domestic demand remains restrained, with retail activity expected to improve toward late November for the holiday season. Export sales have been strong overall, though U.S. hams face rising competition from other pork exporting nations.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Snow crab pricing is expected to keep its upward trend through Jan as the market continues to work through frozen inventories and supplies get tighter. Customers are encourage to secure needs early to minimize exposure against price increases and limited availability.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Farmed salmon is expected to experience continued volatility with an upward trend expected during the holiday season and through lent as China continues to buy at 3x the pace they have in prior years, and the wild salmon season was a bust.

Farmed salmon is expected to experience continued volatility with an upward trend expected during the holiday season and through lent as China continues to buy at 3x the pace they have in prior years, and the wild salmon season was a bust.

Farmed salmon is expected to experience continued volatility with an upward trend expected during the holiday season and through lent as China continues to buy at 3x the pace they have in prior years, and the wild salmon season was a bust.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallop market has leveled off at current pricing, expect market to increase in late November.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod is expected to remain firm to increasing in price through Q2 of next year, lack of Russian imports and a US catch at about 30% of expectation has caused severe strain on the supply chain. Customers with consistent volume requirements should secure those volumes in advance and will need to be flexible with sizing to maintain Pacific cod on their menu.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

The cooler weather is boosting milk output across the Central and Western US, while supplies in the Northeast are heavy. Milk production continues to run at record levels, while ongoing bottling and protein demand has created a more competitive situation for fluid supplies. US milk production in August jumped 1.7% YOY as domestic heads remained at their 33-year highs, keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests and protein demand have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, while firm powder markets are keeping milk values supported.

The domestic butter market is finding support after reaching its lowest levels since February 2021. Recent demand trends in the US have favored milk solids and protein (NFDM and Whey), leaving excess butterfat on the market for Class II and IV manufacturers. Record milk production has kept abundant supplies of cream coming to market and butter churns continuing to run at record levels, and demand has not quite been able to keep up. Updated cold storage levels of butter showed disappoint seasonal drawdowns the past two months as August stocks came in 10.3% higher than last year. Combined July and August drawdowns was the smallest since the 2020 COVID year, totaling 16.3 mil. lbs. vs. 69 mil. last year and 57 mil. on average. The USDA reported August butter production set another monthly record and was 6.3% higher than last year. Even with strong domestic offtake, this is keeping the market extremely well supplied into the seasonal stockpiling time of year.

The domestic block cheese market moved sharply higher the past 2 weeks as physical product that qualifies for trade on the CME became scarce. The overall market dynamics remain comfortable, but tight nearby supplies of young cheddar (4-30 days old) have pushed cash values higher. With both milk and cheese production still running at record levels, these higher prices should be difficult to sustain. Updated production data showed total cheese output in August up 1.4% from last year and a new monthly record. Finding demand remains a daunting task as domestic demand has seen YOY declines in 5 of the past 6 months due to economic uncertainty pressuring consumer retail and foodservice trends. Even with record exports (up 9% from the prior year in August) the USDA reported cold storage levels increased counter seasonally this past month. Stagnant domestic orders and the need to stay competitive into the export market should ultimately force prices back lower into the end of the year.

The domestic shell egg market is attempting to stabilize just above the summer lows as renewed order interest emerges. Buyers (both retail and foodservice) had adjusted tactics to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs this summer, but now with prices again providing historical value, depleted pipelines are starting to be refilled. There are still plenty of eggs coming to market, but the market is again coming into a better balance. The forward outlook has some risk factors that should limit downside, with HPAI concerns starting back up with the fall migration season in September and October, along with the normal increase in retail and foodservice demand into the colder months of the year.

The soybean oil market is attempting to stabilize after push to its lowest levels since July. Increased feedstock competition from imported and domestic tallow and used cooking oil has helped keep the market contained, along with the ongoing harvest pressure as new crop crush ramps up. However, the lofty diesel fuel and energy prices are limiting additional weakness amid supportive biofuel mandates. The higher SBO prices earlier this month have kept feedstock imports heading to the US, which has taken some of the demand off the SBO market. Domestic soybean oil basis offers remained soft as the market indicates plenty of supply available in the front end.

The November canola seed futures continues to sell off this week, succumbing to harvest pressure while also following the lead of the soybean oil market. Warm, dry weather across the Canadian Prairies has accelerated final harvest progress, increasing seasonal commercial deliveries. In Saskatchewan, 89% of the canola crop was harvested as of October 12, while Manitoba reached 86% complete. RBD canola oil basis levels were mostly steady for the week but are down 200 to 250 points from their recent highs.

The December palm oil futures is modestly higher this week, closing some of the discount to soybean oil on the global cash market. Malaysian palm oil stocks climbed to a high of 3.51 million metric tons in September due to peak seasonal production, helping to temper recent rally attempts while October 1st through 15th export shipments are nearly 50% higher than September.

The broccoli market is expected to escalate as California growers contend with elevated diamondback moth (DBM) pressure, quality challenges, and declining yields from late-season fields. Recent heat has accelerated maturity, pulling production schedules forward and reducing harvest expectations for the week ahead. Markon First Crop (MFC) Broccoli is available in Salinas, California.

California

• Yields are low due to increased quality challenges, exacerbated by recent heat
• DBM pressure remains elevated across several growing regions
• Pin rot is being reported throughout portions of the Salinas and Santa Maria Valleys
• Late-season acreage is showing signs of fatigue, limiting yield potential

Mexico (crossing through South Texas)

• Supplies are readily available
• Quality is generally superior to California product
• Insect pressure is minimal
• Some lots are exhibiting discoloration, uneven sizing, and occasional hollow core
• Tightening California supplies and quality concerns could shift additional demand to Mexico and drive up markets

East Coast

• Maine harvests are expected to run through October
• Indiana production has begun, though yields are expected to be low this season
• Virginia harvests are underway

The California Valencia season is ending. The California Navel season will start on a limited basis next week. Prices for small-size fruit (113- to 138-count oranges) will ease in late October.

Valencia

• California Valencia supplies are expected to ship through late October
• Current stocks are dominated by 56- and 72-count sizes; choice-grade fruit is most plentiful
• Small-size fruit (113- to 138-count oranges) will be extremely limited for the rest of the Valencia season
• Sugar levels range from 13 to 15 Brix; high sugar levels such as this typically result in a shorter shelf-life

Navel

• Limited California Navel harvesting will begin next week; volume will ramp up over the next three to four weeks
• Stocks will be dominated by 88- and 113-count sizes; fancy grade fruit is most prevalent
• Sugar levels range from 10 to 12 Brix
• This early variety fruit requires gassing for 72+ hours
• Expect prices for small sizes to inch down as Navel yields increase

Green bean prices are elevated. Supplies are extremely limited; weather disruptions and regional transitions are reducing availability. Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Trimmed Green Beans are available.

• East Coast production remains inconsistent as Northern and Midwestern districts transition to Southern acreage
  • Rain, drought stress, and fluctuating temperatures have disrupted plant development and harvest timing
  • Delayed picking and early field finishes are limiting day-to-day availability
  • Southern acreage should gradually increase yields, but near-term conditions are tight
• West Coast supplies are limited out of California and Baja, Mexico
  • Heat has reduced yields and affected pod quality; some rust is being reported
  • Rain and additional storm risks in Baja may further interrupt harvests and transportation
• Mexican production remains below normal and is not providing meaningful relief to shortages
  • Recent hurricane impacts have reduced volume
  • Transitions to Jalisco and Los Mochis are upcoming, but immediate improvement will be limited
• Growers are reporting good quality and sufficient supplies in Guatemala as production is concentrated in the cooler highland areas
• Expect elevated prices and limited availability over the next several weeks

Iceberg supplies are expected to remain extremely limited through the remainder of the Salinas season. Lower yields continue to push prices up. Romaine and green leaf markets are active, but not as high as iceberg. MFC Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine Lettuces are available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed due to low weights.

Salinas/Santa Maria, California

• Quality ranges from fair to good; insect pressure, internal burn, mildew, and seeder are found in many lots
• Disease pressure, including INSV and Sclerotinia, persists; percentages of impacted heads vary from lot to lot
• Decreased yields/crop loss are seen throughout the Salinas Valley

Huron, California

• This season is expected to begin mid-October

Mexico (crossing into Texas)

• Production continues year-round

New Mexico

• Las Cruces harvests are scheduled to start the week of October 12 and ramp up the following week
• Early season rains wiped out 10-15% of total plantings; romaine is expected to be the most limited lettuce this fall season (through late November)

South Carolina

• The season is expected to begin the week of October 19, further reducing pressure on California supplies

Northeastern Canada and USA

• All harvests are forecast to continue through early October
• Iceberg quality has been up and down from week to week; green leaf and romaine quality has been more consistent

Increased volumes out of Mexico are pushing markets lower. MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Limes are available.

Mexico

• Production has increased in the newer regions in Veracruz, Mexico
• Markets are coming down on all sizes, but smaller sizes are seeing the largest drop
• Large sizes, 110- and 150-count, will remain limited for the next several weeks
• Quality is improving, but stylar and oil spotting are intermittent
• Expect markets to inch down further into October

Colombia

• Volumes are lower than anticipated for this time of year
• El Niño weather conditions have caused insufficient rainfall leading to lower yields
• Sizing is skewing heavily toward smaller sizes, 230- and 250-count, leaving the larger sizes tight
• Despite the lower production on the large sizes, markets have softened to stay competitive with Mexico

Hawaii

• The U.S. is still waiting on approval from regulators to begin purchasing Hawaiian limes
• Quality is consistent; however, limes are showing a lighter green shade
• Markets are generally higher than Mexican product

After a period of mild temperatures, a warming trend is forecast through October 8, with daytime highs expected to reach the 80s across key California growing regions, including Salinas/Watsonville, Oxnard, and Santa Maria. The prolonged heat is expected to accelerate fruit maturity and increase quality concerns, including overripening, bruising, and misshapen fruit, which may impact pack-outs, shelf life, and overall fruit quality moving into the following week.

Supplies

• Volume will fall due to sun and heat damage
• Additional production impacts are possible over the next several weeks as plants recover from the heat

Quality

• Direct sun damage is resulting in increased culling at the field level
• Softer fruit and more bruising are anticipated over the next 7 to 10 days
• Receivers should expect more softness and berry-on-berry bruising than normal upon arrival
• Growers are aggressively sorting fruit and rapidly cooling product to maintain the highest possible quality standards
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns

Outlook

• Supplies will be tight in the short term as growers manage heat-related quality issues and reduced field production
• Quality concerns are expected to persist over the next week, with softness and bruising being the primary challenges
• Expect elevated prices over the next two to three weeks