Market Outlook

Prices are expected to continue firming as buying interest builds toward year-end. Retail features for conventional bone-in ribeyes last week totaled 967 stores, down from 1,048 the prior week and well below the 1,408 stores recorded in the same week last year.

Prices are defying the typical five-year seasonal softness trend, trading steady to firm as a new seasonal pattern appears to take hold.

Prices are set to trade steady to stronger on seasonal trends, with more moderate retail and foodservice demand.

Prices are set to trade steady to lower on seasonal trends, with modest support possible as buyers cover needs ahead of Labor Day, though limited foodservice demand is likely to cap any meaningful upside.

Prices are expected to find mild support, with August’s typical seasonal decline pulled forward by softening retail demand. Top butts are trading at only a modest premium to beef 90% fresh trimmings, which should open featuring opportunities across retail and foodservice.

Prices are expected to remain firm in the coming months, supported by active retail buying ahead of Labor Day and the Yom Kippur holiday on September 21. A national quick-service promotion featuring brisket-based menu items is expected to provide additional underlying support.

Prices are set to hold a soft tone through August on a strong seasonal weakening trend, as both foodservice and retail buyers shift their attention to other beef items.

Prices are expected to remain fairly balanced through month-end, following typical seasonal price trends. Foodservice demand is likely to remain uneven at best, though tightening supplies should lend a degree of underlying price support.

Prices are expected to remain stable in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal patterns. While buyers are likely to begin building inventory ahead of September, sufficient supply should keep any meaningful upward price pressure in check.

Prices are holding strong in August on active retail ground beef buying, while Chinese chuck demand remains limited at 400,000–600,000 pounds per week, well below the several million pounds per week seen before U.S. plant delistings in 2025.

Prices are set to stay supported through Labor Day retailer buying, the season’s last major grilling holiday, with resilient retail demand offsetting softness in foodservice driven by lower transaction counts.

The WOG complex closes the week in a generally steady position. Movement remains consistent, although buyer participation continues to vary by weight range, region, and end-use channel. Freight dynamics remain a key factor, contributing to differences between FOB and delivered market conditions in some areas. Despite these variations, available supplies are generally aligned with current demand. Most weight categories are entering the weekend in a balanced position, with overall market fundamentals showing little change from recent trends.

Breasts and front halves are showing a more balanced tone as routine business activity provides improved support, though some excess supply remains in certain areas. Jumbo conventional boneless breasts continue to be offered at firmer asking levels, but buyer acceptance remains mixed. Purchasing activity ranges from active to moderate, depending on individual needs and market conditions. Pressure on NAE boneless breast offerings has eased, although market participants report limited differentiation between conventional and NAE values as buyers remain cautious regarding premiums. Tenders continue to present challenges for sellers, though the aggressive discounting seen earlier has become less common. In some negotiations, asking levels have begun to firm. While discounting remains present across portions of the market, buyers continue to focus primarily on near-term requirements rather than building inventory. Overall, demand remains measured, with purchasing decisions driven largely by immediate needs.

Wing conditions also remain uneven. Party wing sellers continue to show some flexibility in negotiations, while whole wings are generally moving without much difficulty. The ability or inability to pack frozen remains a key factor in seller availability.

Back half market conditions remain relatively stable. Bone-in items continue to move at a consistent pace, with demand generally aligned with available supply. Thigh meat remains somewhat mixed, though opportunities to secure product at significant discounts have become less common as buying activity continues to improve. Transactional activity still varies by account, region, and program requirements, preventing a fully consistent market tone from developing. Leg meat remains steady overall, with current availability appearing sufficient to meet prevailing demand.

Buyers in the frozen whole turkey market continue to report difficulty securing production, as available offerings remain extremely limited and are being marketed with confidence. At the same time, attention is increasingly shifting toward the placement of fresh whole birds ahead of upcoming seasonal needs. Supplies of both consumer-sized and institutional breast meat remain tight, with availability ranging from barely adequate to below current requirements. As a result, market conditions for these items continue to reflect a firmly balanced supply-demand environment.

Fresh and frozen breast meat are attracting increased interest from both domestic and export buyers. Available production is becoming less visible on the spot market, contributing to a more supportive demand environment. Tenders, meanwhile, remain relatively quiet, with market activity largely unchanged and little movement in either direction. Demand for thigh meat continues to be somewhat subdued, although the market is showing signs of searching for firmer footing. Similar conditions are being reported for ground breast trim, scapula meat, and ground wing meat, where demand remains measured and market sentiment generally steady. MST demand remains modest, with both fresh and frozen offerings continuing to move in line with current requirements and overall market conditions remaining stable.

Prices are expected to find stability in the coming weeks, in line with typical seasonal trends. Retail and foodservice demand is likely to remain subdued near term, while supply is anticipated to improve seasonally as packer operations normalize following recent maintenance and operational downtime.

Prices are defying normal seasonal strength despite active export sales, held back by soft grocery demand. Month-end loin cold storage supplies came in at 32.2 million pounds, 7.2% below the five-year average for the date.

After seven straight weeks of price declines, a steady to higher tone is anticipated as Labor Day demand begins to build, with retail features for regular spareribs rising to 2,065 stores from 1,741 the prior week and 1,632 in the same week last year.

Prices are set to hold steady on grilling season support before firming later in the year as seasonal production declines kick in. Butt roast retail features for the week of August 14 rose to 4,377 stores from 3,306 the prior week and edged above last year’s 4,354.

Prices have firmed moderately in recent weeks as retail demand has begun to gain traction, lending underlying support to the market. Additionally, a notably stronger pull from Mexican and overseas buyers for U.S. hams is expected to provide further price support in the weeks ahead.

White shrimp market remains stable overall, driven by lower inbound product price from India offsetting higher costs of product out of central America. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. Expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Black shrimp market remains stable overall, with some lower pricing noted on Headless shell on and smaller sizes. Outlook indicates pricing should continue at current levels or slightly down, with fuel costs for sea freight being the largest contributor to cost reduction prevention. expecting prices to rise in Q3/4 with new tariffs.

Pricing remains firm, large sizes (U10-U8) remain very tight to unavailable due to MMPA restrictions on key catch areas for these sizes.

Warm water lobster has stabilized with some lower pricing offers presenting in larger sizes. High volume sizes (5-8oz) remain stable and is showing signs of increase as supply tightens.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Prices have stabilized at high rates, supplies remain tight across all sizes.

Canadian Snow crab has started trending north from the bottom of the market in May expect a tight and expensive supply in off season. There may be some deals to be had in September if suppliers get backed up but that currently seems unlikely.

Prices have leveled off with the continued lack of Russian product in the market, some sizes remain scarce but product is available.

Prices remain stable at current levels, several countries are experiencing quality and consistency issues.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Salmon market has leveled off and remains stable at current rates, we are not seeing the seasonally expected decline in COG’s as of yet but are actively reviewing for opportunities.

Supply remains stable out of Asia, South and Central American supply remains strained and continues to be an issue.

Market to slightly increase in coming weeks as processors experience higher labor and fuel costs.

Scallops remain firm with smaller sizes softening in demand in recent weeks, quotas remain in place at much lower levels than last year so anticipate any cost relief to be temporary. Quarterly scallop pricing to refresh next week, will see a slight increase in pricing.

Prices continue to rise as availability remains strained globally, key sizes and cuts are being allocated across all major suppliers.

Pacific cod season has ended and supply is about 20% of expectation – supply and pricing is expected to be very high at least until B season kicks off in August/September. We have secured enough cod to get us to the next season, expect pricing to continue to rise by as much as 20%.

Market remains stable – future pricing/forecast do not show any changes.

MMPA is still an unknown – pricing remains high but stable.

Season is in full swing, boat pricing is down slightly from the opener but prices remain at record levels – predominant factor is fuel prices.

Milk production continues to run at record levels despite seasonally tighter availability nearby. The shift to lower summer output and increased bottling demand from schools have created a more competitive situation for fluid supply and is limiting downside. US milk production report showed yet another large increase in June, jumping 2.3% YOY as another 19k head were added this month from the May report. This is the largest US herd in 33 years and is keeping more than enough milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. On the cream side, strong milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market. Overall supplies remain comfortable, but cream multiples have been increasing.

The domestic butter is leaking lower this week, but has continued to note very strong order interest on setbacks. Last week saw 121 loads change hand on the CME, supporting the recent record domestic consumption and strong export demand. However, abundant butterfat continues to be a huge barrier to higher prices. This ebb and flow each week continues to support the choppy rangebound activity. Impressive milk output so far this year has helped keep butter churns full and running hard, requiring more aggressive pricing to move product into domestic and export channels. Butter churns produced 8.5% more butter in June than last year and set a new June record. The abundance of butterfat this season has continued to remove supplies concerns for the upcoming fall baking season despite cold storage levels for June 6.6% lower than last year. We are now entering the seasonal drawdown time of year and the tighter supplies are expected to keep some support underneath the market nearby.

The domestic cheese markets are struggling to hold onto their recent highs. While spot milk has been tightening, there was still plenty available this past month for cheese producers. Updated production data showed overall cheese output jumping 1.1% in June vs. the prior year, while American and Cheddar cheese output were up 1.6% and 1% YOY, respectively. This continues to put the emphasis on export markets to clear additional supplies as domestic demand has been lower YOY in 3 of the past 4 months. Retailers are trying to jump start demand with retail ads, which are reportedly up 25% from last years per the USDA. The export market remains competitive, which will keep pressure on the domestic market to stay cheap enough to encourage that much needed export demand. The US saw record cheese exports in June, coming in 24% higher than last year and helping prevent stocks from becoming burdensome.

The domestic shell egg market is shifting back to one of over supply as prices continue to roll over from their recent highs. With buyers (both retail and foodservice) looking to just replenish inventories to cover immediate needs, the lack of stockpiling is keeping plenty of eggs coming to market. Normal seasonal trends would suggest a lift from back to school demand, but that has not yet materialized. Both conventional and cage free shell egg markets have shifted back into over supply, and when combined with the normal soft summer demand, prices have been under pressure. Medium and Jumbo sizes are more balanced and have not seen the same pressure as Large and Extra-Large sizes. Ongoing flock rotations have helped limit some of the excessive amounts of eggs seen in May/June, but reduced heat stress and slower domestic stockpiling on the recent rally are starting to pull some risk premium back out of the market. Updated cage free layers for July showed flocks were 1.4 million head larger than the prior month and keeping pace with the overall growth seen on conventional side. The historically small premium to conventional eggs remains a headwind to further cage free conversion efforts, but this is still the largest cage free flock on record.

Ongoing record crush expectations and the increase imports of used cooking oil and tallow have kept soybean oil rangebound and well off its recent highs. Despite the back and forth between the US and Iran, energy prices have been consolidating and limiting the spill over impact on SBO values. The supportive biofuel mandates will keep some level of order interest beneath the market from end users, along with the limited vegoil flows out of the Black Sea. SBO continues to watch global vegoil markets as imports are needed to solve the expanded demand from biofuel. Domestic soybean oil basis offers were mostly steady again last week with end users well covered out into Q4.

The November canola seed futures remain well supported, posting three-week highs as exporters and domestic crushers stepped up buying to secure tight old-crop supplies ahead of the new crop harvest. RBD canola oil basis levels were firm for the spot position but did show some easing for Q4. Ongoing demand from the US biofuel industry to limit downside.

The forward palm oil futures pushed to 20-month highs this week amid ongoing fears of dryness associated with El Nino for this upcoming season. Despite the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showing end July stocks at a 5-month high, and a record high for the month, prices continue to be supported by concerns over increased biofuel use in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as El Nino production impacts and tight global vegoil markets.

Asparagus markets continue to strengthen as harvesting transitions and sizing challenges reduce supplies from both Mexico and Peru. Availability is expected to remain limited, particularly for larger sizes, while elevated market conditions persist into September.

Mexico

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available; packer label is being substituted as needed
• The Central Mexico season has roughly one week of production remaining before Baja becomes the primary growing region through year-end; poor weather conditions in Central Mexico reduced yields and created a variety of production and quality challenges
• Baja fields have started earlier than expected, which could provide some near-term relief; however, the accelerated start could limit future supplies in the fall and winter seasons
• Jumbo and extra-large sizes remain in very short supply and are expected to stay limited as fall demand increases
• Quality is fair to good; heat-related seeding, wet/decayed tips, and limp/rubbery spears have been reported
• Expect increased pricing and restricted availability to continue, particularly for jumbo and extra-large sizes, into September

Peru (into South Florida)

• Peruvian supplies continue to face quality challenges following warmer-than-normal growing conditions in northern districts
• Southern Peru fields are opening earlier than anticipated
  • They will serve as the primary production region into late November
  • Domestic demand will rely heavily on supplies from Southern Peru during the fall season
• Warm El Niño weather patterns reduced Peruvian yields and impacted overall quality
  • Early decay, seeding, and dehydration have been reported
  • Production continues to skew heavily toward small and standard sizes
• Expect elevated markets into September as Southern Peru production continues to ramp up

The broccoli market is expected to strengthen as growers anticipate lighter yields next week. MFC Broccoli is available in Salinas, California; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed.

• Demand remains steady, though yields are expected to decline heading into next week
• California production is meeting current demand levels with good overall availability
• Diamondback moth (DBM) pressure remains elevated in some growing areas
• Pin rot incidence is increasing across portions of the Salinas Valley
• Recent moisture and unsettled weather conditions may exacerbate existing quality concerns
• Mexican broccoli crossing through South Texas remains readily available
• Quality concerns include:
  • Severe browning
  • Cat eye
  • Hollow core
• Maine and New York are in full production, supplying East Coast Markets
• Growers are reporting good sizing, color, and shape
• Insect pressure is minimal
• Ohio remains in production and is expected to continue harvesting through next month

Blueberry prices are expected to remain elevated over the next two to four weeks due to declining production in the Pacific Northwest, light early-season volume from Mexico, and limited arrivals from Peru. As the import season begins, demand is expected to exceed available supply throughout September.

Pacific Northwest

• Oregon harvest is nearing completion, with most shippers expected to finish next week
• Washington production is expected to continue for approximately three more weeks
• Quality is generally good, with occasional soft fruit and shrivel being reported
• Markets are expected to strengthen as regional supplies continue to decline

Mexico

• New crop production has started with light harvest volumes
• Supplies are expected to increase over the next three to four weeks
• Quality has been reported as good
• Markets are expected to remain elevated as demand exceeds available supply

Peru

• Import shipments have started arriving, but volume remains limited early in the season
• Quality has been reported as good
• Market activity is expected to be aggressive throughout September as demand outpaces initial arrivals

Cilantro supplies are sufficient to meet current demand; however, markets are trending higher as weather-related quality challenges impact growing regions in California and Central Mexico.

• Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Cilantro is available; packer label is being substituted when necessary
• Supplies remain adequate to support demand in both Salinas and Oxnard, California
• Quality ranges from fair to good
  • Elevated temperatures and humidity in California are contributing to increased insect and disease pressure, along with bolting and seeder development
  • Seasonal rainfall in Central Mexico is causing yellowing, early decay, and reduced shelf-life on imported product
• Mexican imports remain available, though quality has declined due to ongoing monsoonal conditions
• Salinas production is expected to continue into the early fall; desert region harvests will gradually increase over the coming months
• Expect slightly higher markets with intermittent quality issues into the first week of September

Green onion prices continue to strengthen as extreme temperatures impact production in the Mexicali growing region. Elevated markets are expected to continue into early September as heat-related production challenges limit supply. RSS Green Onions are available; packer label is being substituted as needed.

• Temperatures across the Mexicali growing region exceeded 110°F throughout this week
• Extreme heat is accelerating crop maturity, forcing growers to harvest fields earlier than planned
• Younger plantings are also experiencing heat-related stress, which is expected to reduce yields in the coming weeks
• Quality is generally good, though the potential for heat-related defects is growing
• Potential heat-related defects include:
  • Dehydration
  • Discoloration
  • Early decay
  • Tip burn
• Supplies are currently adequate to meet demand but are expected to tighten as production challenges persist
• Expect strong markets and higher pricing into early September

Blueberry supplies are expected to tighten over the next 3-4 weeks as the Pacific Northwest season winds down, Mexico slowly ramps up, and Peru remains limited. Raspberry and blackberry supplies remain favorable, though markets are expected to firm as California production declines.

Blueberries

Mexico

• New crop has started with light production
• Volume is expected to improve in three to four weeks
• Markets are expected to strengthen

Pacific Northwest

• Oregon harvest is nearing completion, with most shippers finishing next week
• Washington production will continue for approximately three more weeks
• Quality remains excellent
• Markets are expected to rise as supplies diminish

Peru

• Shipments are arriving, but September volume will remain limited
• Quality is good
• Market activity is expected to increase during the first few weeks of September

Blackberries

Mexico

• Harvest is beginning with light availability
• Increased volume is expected in three to four weeks

Watsonville

• Quality and flavor remain excellent with large sizing
• Production is declining as the season moves past its peak
• Harvest is expected to continue for another three to four weeks
• Markets are expected to gradually rise

Raspberries

Mexico

• Mexican production remains strong with good quality and availability
• Baja supplies continue to support the demand

California

• Watsonville/Salinas production is past its peak and expected to conclude within three to four weeks
• Supplies remain ample, and markets are expected to stay steady

Fresh-run MFC Onions are available in Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and Utah. New crop harvests are now underway across multiple growing regions; markets are gradually easing as production increases. Quality is good.

Washington

• New crop onion harvests are underway; volume is increasing
• Growers expect to begin loading from storage in mid-October
• Supplies are dominated by medium and jumbo sizes; colossal and super colossal sizes are somewhat limited but improving

Idaho/Oregon

• The Idaho/Oregon fresh run onion season is continuing to ramp up
• Harvests are expected to finish in mid-October as growers begin loading from storage supplies
• Current lots are dominated by medium and jumbo sizes; Colossal and super colossal sizes are limited, commanding higher prices

Utah

• New crop yellow onion harvests have begun in a limited manner; harvests will run through October prior to loading from storage supplies
• Red and white onion harvests will begin the first week of September

Colorado

• Fresh run onion harvests are underway
• Harvests will continue through late September before transitioning to storage supplies

The domestic Valencia crop is experiencing elevated cosmetic defects, while imported oranges are showing increased scarring and lighter color upon arrival. Although these issues are primarily cosmetic and do not affect internal quality, they may impact appearance. Growers are actively sorting affected fruit and shipping the best quality available. Product is experience thrip damage and wind scarring. Thrip damage is cosmetic rind damage caused by citrus thrips feeding on very young fruit shortly after petal fall; scars are often circular or banded and have a corky appearance. Wind scarring typically appears as random scratches or rubbed areas on the side of the fruit.

Domestic

• Early signs of decay, puff/crease, and over maturity are being driven by previous wet weather conditions.
• Fruit may appear sound at packing but can begin breaking down days later
• While these defects can be found in both grades, they are more prevalent in choice grade fruit

Imports

• Inconsistent color upon arrival is caused by several different factors
  • Warm growing conditions
  • Early harvesting
  • Insufficient degreening

MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available in Idaho, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Overall supplies are increasing as production ramps up on new crop in several regions with more areas coming on board soon. Markets are declining in all regions as supplies improve.

Idaho

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• New crop supplies are heavy to A-size with smaller sizing improving daily
• Quality is very good

Wisconsin

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• A-size potatoes dominate early shipments
• Excellent quality to start the season

Minnesota

• MFC Red and Yellow Potatoes are available
• Adequate volume on all sizes across the board
• Outstanding quality on both colors
• Supplies will be available until late September to early October

Washington

• Production of new crop red and yellow continues to ramp up
• Size profile for both red and yellow leaning to larger A-size to start the season
• Quality is good on both colors

Texas

• Season will wrap up at the end of this month
• Good size profile for both colors available
• Quality continues to be excellent

Upcoming Regions

• Colorado harvests will start in early September
• The Canadian season will start by mid-September
• North Dakota production will follow in early October

Strawberries remain in a demand-exceeds-supply situation as the Salinas/Watsonville growing region moves past peak production. Additionally, fruit quality is being impacted by elevated levels of soft skin and bruising, resulting in increased quality concerns across the market.

Watsonville/Salinas

• Quality is fair-good, with minor bruising and soft skin
• Quality defects have come from humid mornings and warm weather and will be present for the remainder of the season
• Soft skin and bruising are being reported
• Fruit may appear acceptable at the time of packing but can break down several days later
• Expect strong demand and high prices through the remainder of the season
• Maintaining the cold chain will be vital for shelf-life; Markon recommends ordering for quick turns

Santa Maria, California 

• Quality is good at the initial start of the season
• Bruising and uneven ripening are the major concerns
• Volume will not be ready for another two to three weeks
• Expect strong demand and high markets through the remainder of the season