Market Outlook

Prices will maintain a strong tone into April, ahead of the seasonal trend for values to firm in the middle of May. Loads of available Ribeyes will remain tight, reinforcing the heavy price competition among domestic sales channels for uncommitted product.

Prices will continue to show a firm tone over the next several weeks. The normal seasonal trend for values to strengthen going into April will be reinforced by Retail demand for quality middle meats.

Prices will maintain a firm tone going into April, following the seasonal run up in values for the month. Foodservice demand will remain unwavering, even with current values for Choice-graded product trading at a 37% premium to the five-year average for the month.

Prices will continue to show a strong tone going into April, as the seasonal trend for values to firm is strong. Foodservice buyers, and to a lessor degree Retail buyers, will continue to contract early in order to assure product, which will keep prices supported.

Prices will shift to a more neutral tone going into April, taking cues from seasonal price trends. Retailers will scale back their purchases of Top Butts with the expectation that grocery store demand will decline as warmer weather sets in.

Prices will maintain a more neutral tone going into April, even though the seasonal trend is for values to firm. While Foodservice demand is softer overall, supplies have tightened as holiday demand (St. Patrick’s Day and Passover) has been now bought.

Prices will continue to take on a very strong tone going into April and the seasonal trend for values to strengthen is very robust. Foodservice buyers will err on the side of being proactive in their purchases given the outlook for tighter beef supplies later in the year.

Prices will shift to a more firm tone going into April, taking cue from normal seasonal trends for this time of the year. Retailers will begin ramping up their purchases to assure supply for grilling demand, which tends to pick up in May.

Prices will continue to trade with a balanced tone going into April, falling in line with normal seasonal price trends. Foodservice demand will remain on firm footing in the weeks ahead, however supplies will be adequate to meet demand.

Prices will shift to a softer tone going into April, falling in line with seasonal price trends. Supplies of Chucks tend to increase in April, putting more supply in the hands of further processors for ground product.

Prices will take on a softer tone over the next several weeks. With prices for both lean and fat trimmings unusually high for this time of the year, Retailer’s will dial down their featuring of Ground Beef in favor of features for other items.

Whole chickens close the week in stable shape overall. Buyers of WOGs struggle to consistently secure their requirements even when moderately higher bids are put into play.

Jumbo boneless breasts are a mixed bag. Pockets of at adequate supplies and limited demand contrast other regions where a slightly more balanced supply/demand relationship is noted. Medium and select-sized offerings are uneventful overall and we rate these lines as steady, pending additional market developments. Much like the WOG sector, prospective buyers of tenders struggle to dig up their full requirements. The limited volumes which do surface are promptly absorbed at an overage. Elsewhere, chunk and trim meats are well accounted for with spot trade falling to the thin end of the spectrum here at mid-week.

Wings of all sizes have begun to enjoy an uptick in spot purchasing inquiries. A handful of marketers evaluate the willingness of buyers to fork out a slight overage.

On the back half of the bird, marketers of leg quarters hold offerings with confidence at, and slightly above, market. This is most apparent when speaking about fresh bulk offerings. Legs, thighs, and drumsticks are stable and viewed through a neutral to bullish-leaning lens.

Market Sentiments have not changed much in recent weeks. Short supply is paired with demand that has moderated to balance out market prices. All signs point for this situation to continue as bird stocks rebuild into 2023. Prices to remain steady until demand picks up for the Easter bump.

Spot loads of Turkey Breast are being uncovered at favorable prices to buyers. For the first time in months, sentiment points to a market that may experience a decline, however small, in prices.

Prices will continue to take on a softer tone over the next several weeks, following seasonal price trends. Retail demand for bellies has remained soft, even in the face of lower prices at the meat case, as consumers tighten their budgets and avoid premium products.

Prices will continue to range trade going into April, following seasonal price trends. Demand from Retail and Foodservice will continue to be decent, but in the short term cold storage supplies will be adequate to keep prices in balance.

Prices will maintain a softer tone over the next several weeks due to the combination of ample cold storage supplies and softer demand from domestic sales channels.

Prices will maintain a neutral tone over the next several weeks, following normal seasonal price trends. Demand from domestic Foodservice buyers will be on the softer side, however shipments to Asia will remain strong and keep prices more in balance.

Prices will continue to take on a strong tone going into April, trading independently from normal seasonal trends for this time of the year. The combination of strong demand from multiple sales channels and lower overall production will keep prices elevated.

The category was unchanged but there’s ongoing support for Latin origin products due to replacement challenges in Ecuador. Short Term: Softer Prices

Premiums continue to emerge on 4-6 and 6-8 count shrimp due to short supply situation that has developed; while the balance of sizes are susceptible to lower prices where white alternatives exist. Short Term: Softer Prices

Pricing is scattered and the market is unchanged. There is support for the largest sizes which are considered short, while the broader complex remains pressured due to the lack of interest. Short Term: Stable to Firmer Prices

Markets are holding stable with moderate demand and steady inventory. Bahamas season will remain open until March but fishing will slow as we approach the end of season. Imports have increased 8+% last month and demand is expected to increase as North American Lobster Tails become less and less available. Short Term: Steady Prices

Tail market values continue to quickly escalate on the realization that supplies are becoming constrained and meaningful replacement is still months away. Current inventories are minimal and markets are reflective of the short supply. Short Term: Firmer Prices

The meat market remains fairly stable with slight increases. Inventory levels are sufficient for current demand. Short Term: Steady Prices

Markets continues to adjust lower on all sizes as demand remains fair to quiet and inventories are reported to be adequate. Fishing will resume in April. Short Term: Steady to Softer Prices

Markets have remained stable at lower levels as inventories improve and are now adequate for current demands. Saku blocks and poke cubes remain more limited with stable markets. Short Term: Stable Pricing

The domestic Swai market has stabilized at lower costs, however markets overseas are firming as China takes positions of inventory which drives up costs overseas. However, inventory is still available which helps to stabilize the market. Short Term: Steady Prices

Markets have balanced and softened as inventories become more readily available. Short Term: Steady to Softer Prices

Markets remain steady to firm. Supplies are reported barely adequate amid an active demand. Short Term: Firmer Prices

Markets are firm with pricing pushing higher again overseas. Raw material costs are attributed to the spike in pricing. Short Term: Steady Prices

Markets remain low and steady as slower demand is combined with healthy available inventories. Production overseas is steady, which will continue to support the supply to demand imbalance. Short Term: Softer Prices

Blue swimming crab meat adjusted higher on colossal, jumbo lump, and claw meat while the remainder of the market held unchanged. Supplies are adequate to barely adequate and some still higher offers are noted on the larger grades. The undertone is somewhat unsettled on the mid-lower grades with both higher and lower offers noted. Demand is moderate to active. Market participants report that raw material pricing overseas is full steady to firm.

Nearby milk output is steady to increasing throughout the majority of the country, and spot loads remain readily available. Domestic milk prices are finding some support after trading down to their lowest levels since 2021. However, spot loads are still trading at sizeable discounts to class. Dairy herds advanced yet again and are now 37,000 head above last year. Extreme weather in CA and the Northern U.S. impacted cow productivity, while expectations for spring flush point to larger milk supplies. Cream supplies are still available across the U.S., but have tightened up as butter and Class II users run full production schedules to take advantage of cheaper prices and nearby supply.

The butter market remains in consolidation mode. Solid U.S. production data continues to keep the market on its heels, while nearby buying ahead of the holidays is keeping the market supported above the recent lows. Cream availability is up throughout the country and considered abundant in the West. Even in the Midwest and Eastern regions where cream is tightening, churns are still running 7-day schedules to take advantage of extra supply with a good amount going into freezers for use later in the year. The USDA’s Dairy Products report showed butter output in January at 3.8% above 2021 levels as churns take advantage of improved cream availability and cheaper prices. The updated January cold storage report from the USDA showed butter inventories jumping 21% from December and are now 20% larger than levels seen at this time last year. Commercial disappearance in January was 14% lower YOY, leading to more butter put into cold storage. This slower domestic demand has carried into early 2023, with prices only recently getting back down to more palatable levels. Some improved demand has been noted ahead of the spring holidays, but inventories are still building.

Renewed buying interest is pushing blocks towards the upper end of their Q1 range, while barrels have surged higher to close the historically wide discount to blocks. Barrel supplies remain more abundant than blocks and should limit significant increases. The USDA reported an impressive jump in January output as total cheese production was up 3.2% from the prior year and Cheddar was up a whopping 7.1%. This was a large surprise to the trade because cold storage levels released the prior week showed cheese stocks declining slightly from December and coming in 2.2% below last year’s historically large levels. This highlights the stronger demand of early 2023, and the reason block pricing had been holding firm this year. Cheese prices remain competitive globally, but are losing some ground as milk output slowly recovers internationally. Domestic demand is still the major consumption category, which has seen some improvement of late and is limiting further downside opportunity nearby.

The shell egg markets are firm given the upcoming Easter holiday and some depleted inventories. Buying interest has picked up steam given the setback in prices to start the year and inventories remain limited. This has supported conventional and cage-free values alike. There have not been any laying flock HPAI outbreaks this year, but it will remain a concern as temps warm up and will act as a hindrance to large flock expansion. Along with strong nearby demand from consumers and foodservice, shell egg supplies have struggled to build and are currently down 23% from 2022 levels. The USDA’s most recent Chickens and Eggs report further demonstrated the tight supply as table eggs produced in February were down 7.3% from last year given a slower than expected rebuilding of laying flocks. However, producers do continue to put more birds into production and laying flocks actually increased counter seasonally this past month. Layers as of February 1st increased 0.7% from last month but remain 5% below year ago levels. The overall flock sizes should continue to improve this year, but has been slowed by bird flu concerns.

The risk of mentality that has developed following the U.S. bank issues kept pressure on soybean oil prices which are approaching heavily oversold levels. Concerns remain around Argentina’s ability to satisfy world needs this season given their extremely poor crop and reliance on Brazilian imports for their crush industry. Increased competition from other fats and oils for biofuel demand has kept prices near the recent lows, but the weaker prices should start to drive renewed buying interest.

The spot canola seed futures continued their downside trek last week, making a new low for the recent move. However, canola oil basis levels remained steady as demand continues to increase into the U.S. west coast for renewable diesel.

Crude palm oil futures have been trending lower given weakness in macro conditions and the sharp selloff in crude oil prices. Also so weaker export demand is helping drive the recent selloff, with India’s February palm oil imports down 30% from January to their lowest level in 8 months on weak demand as they had loaded up at the end of last year.

Green bell pepper markets have eased due to increased Florida supply and lighter demand. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Markon Essentials (ESS) Green and Red Bell Peppers are available.

Green Bells

• Mexican spring crops are underway; past inclement weather has stunted fruit growth
• Sizing is dominated by medium and large peppers
• Mexico supply will remain adequate through April, before transitioning to the California desert growing region in early May
• South Florida has moderate volume of jumbo/extra-large fruit with excellent quality
• Expect lower prices over the next week

Red Bells

• West Mexico has consistent supply from a mix of old and new crop; quality is inconsistent
• Expect improved quality from the spring crop out of central Mexico in mid-April
• Canadian greenhouse spring production is underway; quality is strong
• Prices are slightly lower this week

Industry supplies will not sufficiently meet demand through the month of April. Expect elevated prices through next month.

Yuma, Arizona/Imperial and Santa Maria Valleys, California

• MFC Broccoli is available in Yuma, Arizona; packer label is being substituted as needed to fill orders.
• Supplies are beginning to diminish in the desert; decreased quality has reduced yields at the field level, driving prices higher
• Production in Santa Maria is expected to be delayed by two to three weeks due to heavy rains, flooding, and cool weather
• Many Salinas growers are preparing for a five to seven day harvesting gap in early to mid-April

Mexico (into South Texas)

• MFC Broccoli is available
• Prices are volatile but lower this week as weather conditions have been moderate
• Demand is strong
• Quality is very good; some mechanical damage has been noted along with occasional mildew

The market is rising; supplies crossing through U.S.-Mexican border have decreased and seasonal/Easter demand is strong.

• Labor shortages and increased border inspections have created an artificial shortfall in the market
• Holy week and Easter will decrease harvesting crews and customs personnel availability
• Current size profile is skewed towards larger sizes, increasing prices for regular/medium packs
• Overall quality is strong; insect pressure and off color are occasional issues
• Product will continue to cross from Mexico until California production begins in Oxnard in May followed by Salinas in July
• Expect stronger markets for the next 7-10 days as demand rises

Chipping potato storage supplies are tightening. New crop harvesting typically begins early June in California.

Storage crop

• To extend storage supplies, suppliers will be allocating or filling orders based on six-week averages
• Suppliers are sorting through product that would normally be culled out in order to fulfill orders
• Some operators may consider shifting to gold/yellow or Russet potatoes until new crop chipping potatoes become available
• Remaining stocks will exhibit multiple quality concerns:
  • Discoloration
  • Thin skins
  • Pressure and shoulder bruising
  • Mixed sizing

Cilantro markets remain relatively low as multiple growing regions are in production, but prices are poised to rise amid reduced quality and lower yields.

• Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Washed & Trimmed Cilantro is available; packer label may be substituted due to quality defects over the next 10 to 14 days
• Fast moving rain storms in Oxnard, California and high winds in Yuma, Arizona have stressed mature plantings leading to quality problems such as
  • Longer stem length in finished packs
  • Yellowing leaves
  • Early breakdown/reduced shelf-life
• Some low lying areas in the Santa Maria and Salinas Valleys have been affected by flooding, impacting planting schedules and creating the potential for supply gaps in April and May
• Expect markets to firm up through the first half of April; warmer spring weather will increase growth and improve quality, barring any major storm systems

Overall production remains slow in California due to wet and muddy conditions. Recent rainfall is producing larger lemons, creating less supply and higher markets for 140-count and smaller sizes. Florida orange season will be coming to an early end, pushing demand west over the next couple of weeks.

Lemons

• MFC and ESS Lemons are available  
• Rain over the past couple of months is producing much larger fruit
• Due to increased demand and a larger size profile in current crops, markets for 140- through 200-count stocks continue to climb
• Quality remains excellent

Oranges

• MFC and ESS Navel Oranges are available
• Larger sizes (48- to 72-count) remain limited; smaller sizes have better availability
• Current quality remains excellent; sugar levels are high
• Mexican Valencia volume is adequate (crossing into Texas); quality is fair
• Limited supplies of Texas domestic Valencias are available; expect the season to wrap up in late April
• Florida Valencia season will finish mid-April, four weeks ahead of schedule due to hurricanes and fruit drop

The Chilean/Peruvian offshore season will wrap up in mid-April. Grapes will transition to Mexican-grown product in early mid-April. Expect pricing to gradually increase as the offshore season winds down.

Offshore

• The Peruvian/Chilean green and red grape season will end in mid-April
• MFC Lunch Bunch Grapes will stop shipping in mid-April
• Expect tight supplies and rising markets through April

Mexico

• MFC and ESS Grapes will be available soon

• Mexican green and red grapes are expected to begin shipping in mid-April
• Mexican portioned grapes are forecast to begin shipping in mid-April
• Expect elevated pricing to begin the season then markets will gradually decrease

The Arizona and California desert growing regions are winding down for the season. Green leaf, iceberg, and romaine markets are poised to rise as transition to Huron, Oxnard, and Salinas, California begins.

• MFC Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine are available; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted as needed due to elevated insect pressure
• Many suppliers extended their seasons in the Arizona and California desert regions to mitigate supply gaps in Salinas caused by excessive rains and flooding in January and March
• Cooler-than-normal temperatures forecast next week in the Arizona and California desert regions will help maintain quality of remaining product
• Production in Huron and Oxnard, California will start next week
• The majority of harvests in the Salinas Valley will begin in mid-April; some suppliers will start iceberg as late as the second week of May due to inclement weather delaying the season
• Initial lots in Huron, Oxnard, and Salinas, California are expected to be packed in MBA due to low weights as temperatures continue to be unseasonably cool
• Expect active markets through transition to Huron, Oxnard, and Salinas, California growing regions

Sufficient supplies of MFC Idaho Burbank and Norkotah Potatoes are available.

Storage Crop

• Large sizes (40- through 70-count stocks) are tight; 90- through 100-count stocks are adequate
• Quality remains excellent for both varieties; pack-outs favor No. 1 quality, with limited No. 2 availability
• Prices are expected to rise as Norkotah stocks begin to wind down in late May; Burbanks will be the sole variety for the remainder of the season
• Limited Burbank stocks are expected to ship through mid- to late July

New Crop

• New crop planting normally gets underway in mid-April
• Snow could delay plantings in some regions
• Growers are hoping to see spring-like weather in April in order to plant the crop by May
• Norkotah harvesting and packing would normally begin early to mid-August

Lime pricing is climbing rapidly; demand is exceeding supply out of Veracruz, Mexico. MFC and ESS Limes are sporadic.

• Supplies are limited in the Veracruz growing region
• Recent rains and cool weather have reduced yields and are keeping new crop size small
• Crops remain dominated by 200- to 250-count sizes; due to increased quality, No. 2-grade limes remain in short supply
• Expect higher markets and tight supplies to persist into April; Holy Week will reduce labor and harvesting

• Markon recommends increased lead time to ensure order fulfillment

Blueberry supplies will tighten over the next five to seven days due to rain in the Baja growing region.

Blueberries

• Yields have decreased in Baja, Mexico due to recent rain, but are expected to uptrend once weather recovers
• Stocks remain strong in Central Mexico as the crop reaches the back end of the spring peak
• The Florida season has been slightly delayed but is forecast to increase each week as weather improves
• Expect tight supplies over the next five to seven days as Baja, Mexico rebounds from recent rains

Raspberries

• Volume is expected to increase slightly compared to previous weeks due to production uptrends
  • Supply levels will continue to climb in Central Mexico
  • volume will continue increasing in Baja, Mexico and reach peak season in early May
  • Oxnard, California stocks will remain minimal but are expected to uptrend over next two weeks

Blackberries

• Most fruit is being sourced in Central Mexico at this time
• Stocks will increase week over week until reaching their peak in mid-April
• Domestic supplies are minimal but expected to increase in mid-May
• Stocks are sufficient

Rain and cool weather in all California growing districts continue to reduce yields. Production is winding down in Mexico (into South Texas) and Florida, as both regions are entering the end of their seasons. Expect strong demand and tight supplies.

Supply levels will plummet further than expected for the next two weeks. California will ship historically low volume, while production in Florida and Mexico (into South Texas) is coming to an end. The industry will be in an extreme demand-exceeds-supply situation for the next two weeks.

Oxnard/Santa Maria

• Additional rain along with cool temperatures will continue to hinder yields
• Growers will be challenged with hail and high wind which will be problematic over the next two weeks
• Regions have received 19.50-22.75” of rain since start of the new year
• This is more rainfall than during the last three years combined
• The market is and will be in an extreme demand-exceeds-supply situation for the foreseeable future

Central Mexico (Loading in South Texas)

• Temperatures remain elevated in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s; crews are only able to harvest until noon due to the heat
• Higher rejection rates, at the border, due to heat-related quality issues are exacerbating the shortage; crews must discard more fruit than they are packing
• The season will wrap up in the next one to two weeks
• The market is and will be in an extreme demand-exceeds-supply situation for the foreseeable future

Florida

• Production continues to decrease; the season is winding down rapidly
• Estimated daily harvest numbers continue to come up short, resulting in a supply shortage
• Growers are trying to stretch the season into next week, weather pending
• The market is and will be in an extreme demand-exceeds-supply situation for the foreseeable future

New crop squash fields in Sonora, Mexico are increasing overall supply. MFC Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

• Mexican Spring crops in the state of Sonora are underway
  • Supplies are increasing
  • Quality is improving
  • Yellow squash markets have decreased significantly
• Florida has light production starting in Plant City
  • The full transition from South Florida regions will occur in mid-April
  • Zucchini supplies are adequate
  • Yellow squash is limited due to quality concerns
• Expect lower prices over the next two weeks

Sweet baby broccoli supplies remain extremely scarce; demand exceeds supply.

• Salinas Valley stocks are extremely limited
• Continued heavy rains, high wind, and lower-than-average temperatures have reduced yields in February and March
• Suppliers have cut back harvesting days due to wet fields, as well as to allow plantings to mature, further reducing available cases
• Markon inspectors are seeing more product from the fields week over week, starting with this week (March 20)
• The revised expectation for shipping all contract orders at 100% of fill rate is now the week of April 3; open market April 10
• Expect elevated markets into the middle of next week, with one more rain event on the horizon before drier spring weather arrives and aids growth