Market Outlook

As August approaches, prices will adopt a more balanced tone, in line with typical seasonal trends. Retail buyers have shown reduced interest in higher-value beef cuts, contributing to more moderate pricing.

Prices are expected to reflect a moderate tone in the coming weeks, aligning with typical seasonal trends. Retail demand for grilling has tapered off significantly, resulting in increased supply that now needs to be absorbed by the broader market.

Prices are expected to soften in the coming weeks, aligning with typical seasonal trends. Demand for high-value beef cuts has declined recently, leading to increased availability of Tenderloins.

Prices are expected to trend lower heading into August, driven by strong seasonal tendencies for values to decline during this period. While foodservice demand is likely to remain steady, retail interest is projected to taper off noticeably in the coming weeks, helping to keep prices in check.

Prices are expected to drift lower over the next few weeks, as they typically do heading into August. While Top Butts offer strong opportunities for promotion at current price levels, demand will likely remain subdued, which will limit any significant price increases in the short term.

Prices are projected to remain soft through mid-August, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. With modest foodservice demand and limited promotional activity from retailers, packers will likely need to reduce their offers to stimulate product movement.

Prices are expected to hold a steady to slightly weaker tone in the coming weeks, reflecting the typical seasonal softening seen in August. Foodservice demand continues to lag, and with retail demand easing after the Fourth of July, improved supply availability is likely to cap any further upward pressure on prices.

Prices will maintain a neutral tone over the coming weeks, reflecting typical seasonal trends. Although overall beef production will remain lower compared to last year, softening demand from both retail and Asian export markets is likely to keep prices relatively stable.

Prices are anticipated to remain stable as we head into August. While domestic demand for Inside Rounds remains robust, buyers have been hesitant to drive prices higher.

Prices are expected to continue to stabilize in the coming weeks. Demand for high-quality ground beef will stay strong through the remainder of the grilling season, while limited supplies of Chuck meat will push processors to offer higher premiums for available product.

Prices will continue to experience some seasonal relief heading into August. Demand for ground beef, particularly at retail, remains robust, with grocery stores willing to chase higher prices as consumers continue to pay—at least for now.

Seasonally stagnant demand for WOGs continues to make its presence felt. Spot offerings are readily available at wide ranging discounts, as the majority of sellers entertain lower bids to keep product flowing.

Breasts and front halves remain quietly supported as both deboning operations and export buyers compete for limited available production. Boneless demand, while not exceptionally strong, continues to show enough firmness to prompt higher bids from buyers when needed. Supplies remain generally tight, with most transactions occurring at premium levels. Tender availability is increasing, but current demand is sufficient to absorb the added volume at supportive price points. Some discounting is occurring, particularly in combo bins. Overall, the market is considered steady, pending further developments.

As for wings, while some pockets of supply for medium and jumbo production have been noted here and there, the general consensus is that of tight supplies and higher paid prices, especially in the case of party wings.

As for the back half of the bird, robust deboning needs keep most bone-in production from ever hitting the streets. The supplies that are not further processed typically have a name attached, in either the domestic or export circles. This has kept paid pricing within a close range of our listed quotations. Thigh meat remains on uneven ground due to an ongoing fully adequate supply and a price-sensitive buying pool. Leg meat, however, has gained strength and is fully supported at full market levels.

As of yesterday afternoon and into this morning, market activity has remained relatively unchanged. Demand for both toms and hens is moderate to active, with buyers reporting limited availability to cover both current needs and anticipated demand ahead of Thanksgiving. Private label fulfillment continues to present challenges. The whole turkey market—both fresh and frozen—remains fully steady, with offerings described as tight and ranging from barely adequate to insufficient for full requirements.

Strong premiums continue to be asked in negotiations involving both fresh and frozen breast meat and tenders.

Prices are projected to remain strong over the next several weeks as the typical seasonal upswing for July and August takes hold. While foodservice demand will show modest improvement, robust retail demand aided by peak BLT season, will be enough to keep prices firm heading into August.

Prices are expected to moderate over the next several weeks, aligning more closely with typical seasonal trends for August. Retail demand will remain supportive, as loins offer good value compared to other proteins; however, adequate supplies are likely to keep prices restrained.

Prices will maintain a weak tone heading into August, following typical seasonal patterns. Product remains readily available amid moderate domestic and export demand and should continue to pressure the market.

Prices are set to soften further heading into August, aligning with typical seasonal patterns. With the peak grilling season and most summer holidays behind them, retailers are expected to scale back their purchases.

Prices are expected remain firm heading into August, moving somewhat independently of typical seasonal trends. Retail demand, especially at deli counters, will remain robust, while interest from the Mexican market in U.S. ham products is also anticipated to firm.

The blue swimming crab meat market remains fully steady to firm, supported by recently announced tariff rates on several Southeast Asian countries. Indonesia’s new duty of 19%, announced July 15th, and Vietnam’s steady 20% rate are both set to take effect August 1st. These tariffs, combined with tightening inventories and rising replacement costs due to limited raw material overseas, continue to apply upward pricing pressure. U.S. supplies are barely adequate, with moderate to active demand further thinning inventories. As a result, many market participants are closely monitoring their inventory positions and the evolving tariff landscape.

The shrimp market is experiencing modest upward adjustments across most categories as participants respond to shifting cost structures. Indonesia’s finalized 19% tariff rate offers much-needed clarity on future procurement costs, though it marks a significant increase from previous trade conditions. These price increases largely reflect U.S. importers’ efforts to pass on higher costs through distribution channels, despite subdued domestic demand, highlighting the growing disconnect between internal market conditions and overseas replacement dynamics. In addition to tariff impacts, underlying supply pressures remain, with India facing limited raw material availability and rising packer pricing, while Ecuador contends with its typical seasonal production slowdown driven by cooler weather affecting shrimp growth rates.

Values advanced across categories amid constrained availability and steady demand. The value-added segment similarly strengthened, reflecting tight replacement conditions.

Wild shrimp offerings remain limited, with that segment of the market holding firm.

Warm water lobster tails are maintaining a premium over cold water varieties, largely driven by robust demand. Seasonal harvests in late spring and early summer (May–June) typically result in softer prices and improved supply. Trade volatility remains a significant challenge. Reports confirm growing uncertainty tied to U.S.–EU trade tensions and region-specific tariffs. These disruptions particularly impact Caribbean and South American exporters. A 10% U.S. tariff on Bahamian lobster, with talk of a slight increase, has raised concerns that these products may soon be priced out of the U.S. market. Some suppliers have adjusted pricing—particularly on certain sizes like 8 oz Brazil-origin tails—in an attempt to manage cash flow while inventory remains light.
Pricing: Firm and Increasing

North American lobster tail supply remains relatively stable for 2025, though regional differences are emerging. Landings in Maine are slightly declining, while other regions like Quebec and Newfoundland are showing modest increases. The industry is currently benefiting from seasonal peak harvests (May–June), helping to stabilize short-term availability. However, off-peak months—particularly late summer into fall—may bring tighter supply.
Demand has been strong, with a rebound in both foodservice and retail channels. This is keeping prices firm across most tail sizes. Inventory remains closely managed. While the seasonal harvest has improved short-term availability, supply remains tight during off-peak months, and distributors are sensitive to price shifts and trade developments. The potential for a sharp change in trade policy could impact both availability and cash flow due to the way tariffs are assessed at entry.
Pricing: Steady/Firm

The wholesale lobster meat market holds firm, governed by strong seasonal production, restocking cycles, and steady demand from live and processed buyers. However, persistent tariff uncertainty and fluctuations in live catch volumes create vulnerabilities—especially if added costs become too steep. Buyers should remain alert to evolving trade policies, seasonal landing data, and potential shifts in supply chains. The overall supply is tight with strong demand. Prices: steady to increasing

Canada’s snow crab market, though robust in demand, faces headwinds from reduced quotas, leading to tighter supply and escalating prices. The looming threat of new U.S. tariffs and existing Chinese duties add significant uncertainty. While Canada currently dominates the North American market, these volatile conditions demand vigilant oversight. Price : Increasing

The wholesale Ahi (Yellowfin) tuna market is currently well-supplied, particularly in the Eastern Pacific. This abundance is weighing on prices—especially in Europe—while U.S. fresh and live segments remain firm but competitive. The frozen Yellowfin sector is expanding rapidly, led by sushi-steak demand. Pricing is on the rise, for high-grade, fresh, or certified yellowfin products. Prices: Overall Stable

The Pangasius market remains strong with current prices near historic highs. The market is on the watch for how production increases and U.S. tariff clarity influence stability. Long-term, expect steady price growth tied to demand expansion and quality enhancements. Short Term: Prices stable

The Keta salmon market is currently well-supplied, which is weakening prices. As the season progresses and stock levels pull back, we may see prices firm up modestly. Key variables to monitor are export market recovery, roe demand, and ongoing harvest volume. Short Term: Price steady

Chilean salmon wholesale market is navigating a period of cooling prices, slightly reduced export supply, and growing tariff challenges. While premiums may be constrained in U.S. imports, Chile maintains some advantage versus EU and Norwegian salmon—subject to how tariff policy evolves. Buyers should track inventory flows, demand trends, and upcoming tariff decisions closely. Pricing: Steady/Increasing

The Norwegian salmon market remains highly active with record flows and strong demand, especially from the U.S. and China. Prices have rebounded after spring softness, driven by seasonality and holiday restocking. Still, persistent oversupply and the looming tariff “dumping” investigations are elements to monitor. Unless supply growth is absorbed, pricing may remain constrained. Pricing: Steady/Increasing

The wholesale market for tilapia fillets is currently experiencing soft pricing, primarily driven by abundant supply from China coinciding with cautious demand in the U.S. Chinese farmgate prices have reached historic lows in certain regions due to reduced orders, reflecting a hesitant buying stance among U.S. importers. Despite ample global availability, the market faces uncertainty due to trade and tariff dynamics. Looking ahead, prices are expected to remain weak or stable in the short term as buyers wait for clearer signals in trade policy and demand recovers. Pricing: Steady/Decreasing

Supplies remain tight, especially for smaller fish sizes (3/5, 5/7 fillets, and 7/9 whole), with ongoing shortages. This is primarily due to the seasonal lifecycle of catfish and heightened domestic demand, largely influenced by tariffs. Pond bank prices are climbing, and further price increases are anticipated throughout the summer.

As we enter mid-summer, fishing boats are beginning to hold back trips to conserve quota and boat days for the late fall push ahead of the holidays. Pricing for larger scallops has remained fairly steady, with demand primarily focused on the 10/20 sizes.

The overall Mahi market is currently facing challenges due to limited availability. Although buyers are sourcing from multiple packers, inventory levels have remained largely unchanged. Availability is at its lowest point since 2018. Significant price increases have already occurred and are expected to continue rising.

Milk production continues to outpace the prior year, with updated production data showing US output surging 3.3% higher YOY in June. This marks the largest increase since 2021 and has kept plenty of fluid milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs. Current herds are the largest since July 2021. Nearby demand is steady, while spot offers remain near class and below year ago levels. On the cream side, record monthly milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market, while increased Class II demand for ice cream is stabilizing prices.

The butter market set back from its recent highs this past week and remains well below the record highs set last year. Prices have been finding support from strong YTD domestic demand and the extremely competitive price point vs. other global exporters. This has limited the seasonal build in cold storage inventories despite strong domestic production and available cream supplies. May production data showed US output up 3.5% from 2024, while updated cold storage inventories for May came in 4.8% below last year. The 7.3% build from April was right on par with seasonal norms. US exports so far this season have been more than double last year’s levels and increased global values have reduced US butter imports.

Cheese prices are working back towards the lower end of their recent range, while overall price action remains muted vs. prior years. New cheese plant capacity is pushing more fresh cheese onto the market and keeping prices subdued. Better than expected production data for this past month are limiting just how expensive prices need to be, while strong export demand has kept a bid under the market on setbacks. May cheddar output was 9.6% higher YOY. Updated cold storage data showed that total cheese and American cheese stocks were 1.5% and 1.1% lower YOY, respectively, in May. This did mark the smallest YOY decline that cheese has seen in a year. Domestic demand has taken on a softer tone of late, adding to the recent weakness in prices. However, the lower prices should now start to encourage further global export demand, limiting downside opportunities.

The shell egg market is attempting to stabilize following more aggressive retail shelf prices and increased promotional activity. This has created more of a value proposition for as a cheap protein source and helping drive additional orders, while warmer weather suggests a slowdown in buying activity. With the premium of cage free vs. conventional prices starting to widen back out, this is providing another headwind to nearby demand. Smaller flocks are still limiting the amount of egg coming to market, but it appears we are pushing the market into better supply/demand balance. Cage free layers in June grew by 1.4 million from May as HPAI outbreaks have remained calm in key cage free states and producers pushed more animals into production. This marks the largest cage free flock on record.

Soybean oil futures remain elevated. The market continues to adjust to the new demand prospects for biofuel into 2026 and the tight domestic stocks situation. Despite higher than expected crush this past month, stocks came in below expectations, highlighting the strong offtake supporting prices. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers remain firm as the bid from the renewable diesel industry has picked up since the EPA’s announcement of the higher than expected RVO’s back on June 13th.

Canola seed futures are higher this week, following the lead of the soybean complex. RBD canola oil offers were slightly lower for the week. Canberra is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China, sources familiar with the matter said, a move towards ending a years-long freeze in the trade. China, the world’s largest canola importer, sources nearly all of its imports from Canada but those supplies could be limited by an anti-dumping probe Beijing is conducting. RBD canola oil premiums are steady.

The spot palm oil futures continued to move higher this week, trading in lockstep with the soybean oil market but still maintaining a healthy discount on the global cash markets. This has led to an increase in exports out of Malaysia and Indonesia of late.

Markets are escalating, especially for jumbo and large sizes. Production has wrapped up in Michigan and Southern Canada for the year, driving demand to Mexico. Production in Central Mexico and Baja has moved past the seasonal peak; growers are breaking into new, immature lots. Peruvian yields are low. MFC Asparagus is available.

The market is inching lower. Pest pressure is decreasing in California fields, increasing yields, and improving quality. East Coast supplies are ample in multiple regions. The weather in Mexico has improved, resulting in increased yields. MFC Broccoli Crowns are available.

Markets remain elevated amid strong demand and persistent production challenges in Salinas, California. Markon First Crop (MFC) and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Brussels Sprouts are limited.

• Salinas Valley supplies are extremely limited
  • The main variety for the summer season is not performing as well as anticipated
  • July’s overcast weather and below-average temperatures have further limited growth
• Demand is strong as Salinas is the main growing region for this time of year; Santa Maria is helping in a small way, but acreage is minimal
• Quality is fair; puffy texture and seeder are heavily present
• Jumbo sprouts are more readily available, as suppliers are allocating their small and medium heads for processing to fill value-added orders
• Supplies are expected to remain limited for the next 10-14 days
• Prices will remain elevated heading into August, then ease as more volume enters the market

Due to very high demand, Michigan’s cherry season will end sooner than originally projected. Washington cherries are readily available with strong demand. Expect rising prices and tighter supplies over the coming weeks.

Michigan

• The Michigan season is ending this week
• Sales far exceeded supplies, depleting this year’s crop much earlier than anticipated

Washington

• Washington will continue to ship cherries over the next two to three weeks, pending availability
• Prices are on the rise as demand shifts to the West Coast
• Quality is excellent

Iceberg prices are firming as supplies quickly tighten and demand rebounds. Green leaf and romaine markets are fairly steady.

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Premium Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine Lettuces are available; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted when needed due to low weights
• Overall quality is very good; fluctuating density and head size, insect pressure, and internal burn continue to be present in some lots
• Salinas Valley iceberg demand is strengthening once again
  • Some growers are entering lower acreage for the second half of this week
  • Processors are also searching for additional acreage to supplement their programs
• Green leaf and romaine demand is level; supplies are sufficient
• Expect climbing iceberg markets into next week; green and romaine prices shouldn’t fluctuate much

Blackberry supplies have diminished. California’s San Joaquin Valley season is ending, while new crop Pacific Northwest production has not started.

Blackberries

• Mexican supplies are being diverted to freezers
  • Quality is poor due to humidity and leaking fruit
  • Heat-related issues include softness and cell regression (black cells shrink and turn red)
  • Fungal development has been reported
• California’s San Joaquin Valley season is almost complete, but supplies have begun shipping from the Watsonville/Salinas growing region
• Prices will continue to climb until the Pacific Northwest season begins

Blueberries

• The Mexican season has ended
• Supplies are diminishing in California’s San Joaquin Valley; production is winding down
• Ample stocks are now shipping from Eastern Washington and Hermiston, Oregon
• Peruvian growers will begin shipments in mid-August
• Expect markets to remain steady

Raspberries

• Mexican supplies have been affected by the humid weather; quality has diminished
• California’s Santa Maria and Watsonville growing regions have begun shipping excellent-quality fruit
• Mexico’s Baja season is underway; quality is very good
• Expect markets to remain steady

The Washington storage onion season has ended. New crop supplies will start shipping in two to three weeks. The Northern California and New Mexico seasons are beginning to wind down. Prices are climbing.

Washington

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Onions are available
• Washington red and yellow storage supplies have been depleted
• New crop harvests will begin in a limited manner the week of July 28
• Suppliers will load California and New Mexico onions to cover orders through the start of the season
• All sizes are available
• Quality is good
• Fresh-run onions will have thinner skins and a shorter shelf-life
• Markon recommends ordering for quicker turns
• Shelf-life will increase after the season has ramped up, allowing onions time to cure
• Markets are elevated but will slowly decline as the season ramps up

California

• MFC Onions are available
• Northern California’s fresh-run season is expected to end in mid-August
• Supplies are dominated by jumbo through colossal sizes; medium-sized yellow onions are somewhat limited
• Quality is good
• Markets are steady but expected to rise over the next two weeks as demand shifts from other regions

New Mexico

• MFC Onions are available
• Supplies are dominated by jumbo through colossal sizes
• Quality is good
• Rain is expected to hinder harvesting in Southern New Mexico this week; growers packed ahead in anticipation of the storms
• Expect markets to rise over the next 7-10 days

Prices are steady and expected to remain so into August. As new-crop red and yellow potatoes enter the market from major growing areas over the next several weeks, prices will decline. Ample supplies and high quality are anticipated.

Idaho

• The storage season is winding down
  • Demand is increasing
  • New crop production will begin the first week of August
• Several growers are transferring fresh-run product from California and Arizona to pair with their Russet potato volume
• Red potato quality is fair; scarring and lighter color are occasional problems
• Yellow potato quality is good
• All sizes are available; B and No. 2s are most plentiful

Texas

• Texas will continue to ship red and yellow potatoes over the next three to four weeks
• Quality is very good; color is solid with minimal blemishes
• All sizes and grades are available

California & Arizona

• California and Arizona will continue shipping red and yellow supplies through August
• Quality is good; fresh-run potatoes have thinner skins compared to storage potatoes and are more prone to mechanical damage
• All sizes are available; large sizes dominate availability

Florida

• The Northern Florida season is expected to end next week
• Quality remains good; defects are minimal
• All sizes are adequate; large sizes dominate availability

Upcoming Regions

• Minnesota will start shipping next week
• The Wisconsin season is expected to start on August 4
• Colorado will begin shipping in late August