Market Outlook

Prices will maintain a firm tone heading into June, as tight supplies continue to bolster the market as current harvest levels remain significantly below last year’s pace. While seasonal increases in slaughter could offer a modest improvement in availability, stronger seasonal demand should keep the market supported.

Strip loin prices will remain supported, supported, as strips remain a preferred middle meat cut among consumers. However, further price gains may be limited, as buyers are unlikely to pursue significantly higher prices in the current market environment.

Prices are expected to remain within a stable range as we approach June, following typical seasonal trends. Increased product availability should help improve demand driven by the start of grilling season.

Prices will maintain a strong tone heading into June, driven by solid demand from retail and foodservice channels. Seasonally, prices typically remain firm during this period, and with beef production trending lower, market values have seen even stronger support than usual.

Prices are expected to remain well-supported in the coming weeks, largely due to limited supply. Steady demand from both retail and foodservice sectors is also contributing to firm values, as buyers increasingly turn to this cut as a cost-effective alternative to more expensive middle meat options.

Prices are projected to remain strong in the coming weeks, following typical seasonal price trends. Demand for brisket continues to be robust across both retail and foodservice sectors, driven by LTOs and promotional campaigns.

Prices are expected to maintain a firm tone heading into June, in line with typical seasonal patterns. Robust demand from several foodservice sectors, many of which are competing for limited supplies, will continue to exert upward pressure, helping to keep prices well-supported.

Prices are expected to remain strong heading into the peak of grilling season, driven by sustained consumer interest. Skirt meat, a staple in retail meat cases, continues to see solid demand, providing firm support for pricing.

Prices are projected to level off, in line with typical early summer seasonal trends. While demand remains relatively steady, tightening supplies and the potential for increased export activity are likely to offer underlying support to the market.

Prices are expected to trade within a stable range over the next several weeks, following typical seasonal patterns. Retail demand for high-quality ground beef is projected to remain strong, though adequate supply levels should help prevent significant upward pressure on prices.

Prices will remain firm in the coming weeks, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Retail demand continues to be strong, with buyers likely to favor more affordable ground products as they trade down the carcass. However, demand from foodservice and QSRs remains somewhat constrained, which may limit significant upward movement in prices.

Recent reports suggest some tightening in WOG availability, particularly in the middle-weight tiers. While the segment remains mostly stable, a few participants have had to pay slight premiums to secure product for last minute deliveries. Demand for WOGs is described as moderate, but stronger interest in boneless items and retail tray packs allows sellers to hold their position with confidence.

Breasts and front halves are rated as full steady, with increased Canadian demand allowing some processors to secure premiums. In contrast, the boneless breast meat market is notably quiet. While small volumes of discounted combo product remain, limited boxed offerings trade at stable to slightly higher values. Very little production is being shown, and most buyers appear content to sit on the sidelines, creating a sense of stagnation as the industry waits to see what next week brings. Chunk and trim meat are trading in a mostly stable fashion, though some irregularities in reports are likely due to the holiday weekend. Tenders remain limited and highly sought after, which continues to push the market upward.

Wing supplies have mostly cleared, and while occasional discounts may be available, most sales are transacted at market values, with a few sellers securing premiums as value-oriented featuring is picking up steam.

Demand for legs, leg quarters, and thighs remain at least moderate on the domestic front, with prices supportive. Export interest, particularly from Mexico, continues to grow. Retail drumstick activity has picked up again, and a limited number of processors are achieving premiums. Leg and thigh meat are seeing a slightly reduced call, creating a market dynamic similar to that of boneless breast meat, with slower-moving sales and pricing ranging from slight discounts to modest premiums.

Frozen whole-body toms and hens reflect a steady tone. Negotiation and sales for future ship dates are inked within a range of premiums; helping to paint a seasonal picture to this segment. Market-swaying activity from within the fresh turkey complex remains thin. Consumer and institutional-sized breasts prove challenging for prospective purchasers to dig up with consistency. Marketers with finite production on hand aren’t shy about asking and receiving full market value or above.

In raw materials, frozen breast meats continue to be held by sellers for a range of overages relative to our quotations. Fresh breast meats enjoy a seasonal level of buyer engagement and wind down the morning termed as at least steady. Tenderloins are pursued with enthusiasm with supplies struggling to keep up with the call. Sales of scapula and wing meat both cross our desk at up money. Breast trim is viewed in a seasonal light. Thigh meat falls short of current needs. Fresh and frozen MST is well-established and termed as at least steady.

Prices are expected to trade uneven in the coming weeks, aligning with the typical seasonal trend for early summer. Increased retail demand as grilling season ramps up will be offset by weaker overall demand from foodservice sectors and improved spot availability.

Prices will remain stable into June, diverging from the typical seasonal upward support seen at this time of year. Although retail demand for loins has yet to show a significant increase despite the start of grilling season, relatively tight supplies and export interest have helped maintain a price floor.

Prices are expected to take on a stronger tone following the Memorial Day holiday, consistent with typical seasonal patterns that keep values firm into June. Reduced supply from packers has intensified competition among buyers in the retail and grocery channels, further supporting price strength.

Prices will continue to firm heading into June, following typical seasonal trends. Limited product availability, combined with growing retail demand driven by increased interest in pulled pork, will provide additional price support.

Prices are projected to firm over the coming weeks, as retail demand for hams at deli counters has begun to pick up and export demand to Mexico remains supportive.

The market for blue swimming crabmeat remains largely unchanged, though the undertone is highly unsettled due to the announcement of universal tariffs and the subsequent delay of reciprocal tariffs for many Southeast Asian countries. Many stakeholders are adopting a wait-and-see approach, as universal tariffs took effect on April 5th, while reciprocal tariffs have been delayed until July 9th. Overall, supplies in the U.S. are adequate, and demand remains mostly moderate. Many market participants continue to monitor individual inventory positions closely. Overall, the market trend is steady, with some uncertainty driven by tariff-related factors.

The shrimp market showed selective price increases, while the broader market remains steady to firm. Sellers are navigating the balance between higher replacement costs and a domestic market still adjusting to these increases. The additional financial strain from tariff bond requirements adds further complexity to the cost structure. Overall, the market trend is steady to firm, with rising costs and tariff challenges continuing to put pressure on prices.

Values increased across all categories due to limited availability and steady demand. The value added segment also showed strength, driven by tight replacement conditions. Overall, the market trend is firm, supported by constrained supply and consistent demand.

Values increased, driven by a firm market bias and reports of limited landings. The availability of large shrimp remains extremely constrained.

Prime-size tails (5–9 oz) are holding strong due to high demand seasonal production restraints. while larger sizes are seeing price reductions as sellers look to move inventory. Recent and potential U.S. tariffs are adding volatility. Prices have been impacted, and there’s ongoing concern about trade tensions with exporters. Stable to increasing prices.

Wholesale prices for live lobster, frozen tails, and lobster meat have declined. This downward trend is attributed to increased supply and cautious buyer sentiment. The industry is closely monitoring potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian seafood imports, including lobster. While no new tariffs have been enacted yet, the possibility has introduced market uncertainty, influencing purchasing decisions and pricing strategies. Stable to increasing prices.

Prices have risen significantly as supply is tight due to a sharp decline in Maine’s 2024 catch—down to the lowest level in 15 years. Contributing factors include changing ocean temperatures and storm-related infrastructure damage.
Long-term: The market will likely remain volatile, influenced by harvest yields, trade policies, and global seafood demand trends.

Wholesale prices for Canadian snow crab remain firm. This stability is attributed to the winding down of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Norwegian seasons, coupled with the anticipation of increased supply from Newfoundland as its season ramps up. With the Newfoundland season gaining momentum, we can expect an increase in available product. However, market conditions should be monitored closely, as factors like labor disputes and global demand could influence pricing and availability. Pricing is on the rise.

The market is experiencing tight supply conditions, particularly for larger fillets. This scarcity is contributing to firm pricing across various regions. Some reports indicate that tariff uncertainty is contributing to pressure on the prices of tuna, including yellowfin (Ahi). The recent agreement between the US and China to reduce tariffs could have a positive impact, but the full effects are yet to be seen. It’s advisable to keep a close watch on market reports for the most up-to-date price trends. Pricing is Stable at the moment.

There are recent indications of price softening due to increased availability and potentially slower demand, a change from beginning of the year. The long-term outlook suggests continued growth in US imports, and Vietnam remains a key player in the global market, benefiting from lower tariffs compared to some competitors. Prices are expected to remain stable, with the potential for further increases.

The Keta salmon market appears to have stable availability, with prices generally positioned as moderate compared to other wild salmon. While specific tariff impacts on Keta salmon are not detailed in the provided results, broader changes in seafood trade could have indirect effects. Short Term: Price steady

The Chilean salmon market is seeing softening prices in the US markets after a period of stability in April. While supply is adequate, the upcoming 10% US tariff poses a significant challenge to the industry, potentially impacting prices and competitiveness. Production growth is expected to be modest in 2025 due to regulatory and environmental factors. Pricing is Stable

Norwegian salmon wholesale market shows a rebound in prices in the US market after hitting a year low. Export volumes remain strong, especially to the US and China, which are key growth markets. Increased supply is a significant factor influencing prices, and the market remains sensitive to global trade policies and tariffs. Short Term: Price Steady but might increase with tariffs

The U.S. wholesale market for tilapia fillets is experiencing relative price stability for now, but tightening supply conditions and external pressures point toward potential price increases in the coming months. Suppliers are already quoting higher prices for orders after Chinese New Year, anticipating reduced raw material supply and elevated production costs. Short term: Pricing Steady to increasing.

Catfish supply remains adequate; however, increasing pressure is emerging as some buyers shift toward domestic products in response to tariff impacts. Additionally, summer heat is affecting fish growth and sizing, with early indications of reduced growth rates observed in pond sizes. These factors, combined with typical seasonal challenges, are contributing to upward pressure on prices.

The scallop harvest is trending upward, with larger hauls than initially anticipated. Early spawning has led to some softness in the catch, including a significant presence of pumpkin/orange scallops, which are prized for their sweetness. Consequently, pricing for drier scallops remains mixed, while softer scallops are attracting lower prices. Overall, quality is good, and pricing is expected to improve over the coming month.

Milk production continues to impress, with April output coming in 1.5% better than year ago levels. Increasing dairy herds and limited impacts from HPAI have kept plenty of milk coming to market. Weekly milk production reports are seasonally strong across the majority of the country given spring flush, while the Southern states are already past peak levels. Nearby demand has stabilized after a strong start to the year, helping keep spot offers well below class and below year ago levels. On the cream side, record milk fat tests have continued to bring an abundance of cream to the market as supplies are readily available.

The butter market remains in consolidation mode. Solid production schedules and cheap cream availability continue to limit just how expensive butter needs to be at this time of year. Butter production in March came in 8.6% higher than last year and has kept large amounts of butter coming to market. However, even with churns running near capacity in the US, cold storage inventories this past month were only 2.6% higher than last year and highlight solid demand so far this year. Recent reports suggest this trend of stronger production and stocks should continue in the coming months as milk supply out West normalizes from the HPAI impacts this past fall/winter. March exports noted another large uptick in sales, while forward sales will likely face some headwinds amid ongoing tariff uncertainty.

The cheese markets have continued to find support from strong export sales and renewed order interest. Weakness in the US Dollar and competitive prices have encouraged strong exports, while slower increases in new capacity have left buyers needing to chase nearby supplies. Longer term, the new capacity should push more product onto the market and help rebuild the supply situation in the US.  With peak spring flush levels at hand and cheese production/stocks still ramping up from low levels last year, there should be adequate supply into the summer. Domestic cheese demand has been limited as consumer confidence deteriorates.  March production data showed all cheese output +1.4% vs. last year.  American and cheddar output were even higher, coming in at +4.6% and +5.4% respectively.  The market is still in transition as increased production is starting to come online and supplies look to recover from historically tight levels.

The shell egg prices resumed their lower trend this past week.  The slower pace of HPAI outbreaks has helped push supplies back into better balance, along with the favorable margin structure helping rebuild laying flocks. The smaller flocks are still limiting the amount of egg coming to market, but it appears we have finally reached supply/demand equilibrium for the moment.  Domestic order interest is starting to decline seasonally and allowing for larger declines in shell egg values.  Longer term, producer margins are still solid due to the lower YOY feed costs and historically firm shell egg values, and should drive further flock expansion in 2025. Cage free layers in April were essentially unchanged from March as HPAI outbreaks have remained calm in key cage free states and producers reevaluate flock needs.

Soybean oil futures are rangebound near their recent highs, with the ongoing back and forth headline news regarding the U.S. Renewable Diesel program taking center stage. The trade remains wary of what the “actual” proposed volumes will be. Export demand has slowed dramatically as S. American basis values are well below US offers and palm remains at a discount to soy oil. The stocks situation is still historically tight, but prices are struggling to make new highs and finding further pressure from weak energy prices as well.

Canola seed futures are following the soybean complex as prices stabilize near their recent highs. Supplies have tightened and weather conditions remain dry in the Canadian prairies as planting finishes up. RBD canola oil values were also higher this past week on the higher seed prices and potential for increased demand.

Nearby palm oil futures finished slightly lower this past week, following the lead of the soybean oil market. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported their end of April palm oil stocks at a six-month high of 1.866 million metric tons, up from 1.563 million in March. April 2024 stocks were at 1.745 million metric tons.

Markets are falling as supplies increase in the Salinas and Santa Maria Valley regions. Markon Essentials (ESS) Cauliflower is readily available.

• Favorable weather and weak demand have allowed fields to size up
• Overall quality is good; discoloration and yellowing are occasional issues
• High temperatures are expected through the weekend, further aiding growth
• Current plantings for June are promising in terms of quality and volume; ample yields are forecast for several weeks
• Regional supplies out of Maine, North Carolina, New York, and New Jersey will come online in early July
  • Weather has been ideal for growth
  • Plentiful supplies are expected
• Low prices will persist for the next two weeks as ample supplies and steady demand continue

The Salinas Valley season is ramping up. Oxnard production is winding down; the season will conclude mid-June.

• Markon First Crop (MFC) Celery is readily available
• Oxnard MFC harvests will finish Wednesday, June 4; Salinas production is scheduled to start the same day as growers build MFC inventory
• Santa Maria production will continue year-round
• The Michigan season will start in early to mid-July and continue into October
• Markets should remain steady during the transition from Oxnard to Salinas

Prices are low; supplies are abundant on the East Coast and in Mexico. MFC Cucumbers are available.

• The Georgia season will be ending over the next two weeks
• Harvesting has started in North Carolina this week
• Production is underway in multiple regions of Mexico
  • Sonora shade house supplies will ship through late June
  • Baja and Central Mexico are harvesting newer crops with the best quality
• Expect weak prices over the next two weeks, weather permitting

Mexican green and red grape supplies continue to tighten. Early estimates state growers lost 50% of harvest on red grapes and 30% on green grapes due to storm damage.

• ESS Grapes are available   
• Red grapes are seeing most immediate damage as they were in peak maturity with high brix levels
• High brix levels combined with rain will cause splitting of the grapes
• Growers are directing crews to focus on red grape harvest, in turn slowing harvest on green grapes
• Quality is expected to be good; mold and split grapes are expected
• Quality control crews will double their efforts to ensure the best quality available upon shipping
• The California season is expected to begin mid-July
• Expect extremely low volume and elevated markets for the next six weeks

Green leaf prices remain steady at lower levels due to abundant supplies. Iceberg weights have rebounded, pushing prices lower. Romaine markets are steady to slightly higher due to quality issues.

• MFC Premium Green Leaf, Iceberg, and Romaine are available; Markon Best Available (MBA) is being substituted sporadically due to low weights
• Recent weather patterns in the Salinas Valley have led to an increase in insect pressure and mildew; warm weather forecast today and tomorrow will further promote insect presence
• Disease pressure continues to be manageable; some growers are reporting increased levels of Impatiens Necrotic Spot Virus (INSV); however, it is not widespread
• Steady markets are expected into mid-June, barring a significant increase in disease pressure affecting yields

The Mexican mixed berry-growing regions are shifting from extreme heat to their rainy season. Quality will improve due to these cooler temperatures.

Blueberries

• Mexican production has passed the seasonal peak
  • Quality is good
  • Size is consistent
• Harvesting has begun in California’s San Joaquin Valley; quality is very good
• Florida volume is down; the season has been shortened due to weather
• Georgia stocks have been directed to the frozen market due to quality
• The Pacific Northwest season will begin in mid-June, followed by British Columbia and Washington in July
• Expect the market to remain steady

Blackberries

• Supplies have increased significantly
• Demand is steady
• Quality is good; heat-related issues include cell regression (which is when the black cells shrink and become red) and softness
• California growers have started limited harvesting in the San Joaquin Valley
• Expect low prices

Raspberries

• Medium-sized berries dominate availability
• Quality is good; expect strong red color and firm texture
• California’s Watsonville/Salinas region will begin harvesting in July
• Expect markets to inch down

Seedless lemons will ship through June 14.

• Harvesting will end in mid-June; new crop production will start in early November 2025
• March’s extreme heat decimated the summer crop that typically runs from July through September; there will be a supply gap between seasons
• Conventional lemons can be substituted to fill orders