Market Outlook

Prices are expected to maintain a firm tone through September in line with seasonal trends, supported by strong retail demand that is driving aggressive bidding for uncommitted product, particularly as beef production continues to track below year-ago levels.

Prices are projected to remain range-bound in the coming weeks, defying the typical post-Labor Day seasonal decline. Retail buyers are likely to favor Strips, which continue to trade at a steep discount relative to other middle meats such as Tenderloins and Ribeyes.

Prices will remain firm through year-end, supported by the combination of tight supplies and strong demand. Upside risk builds into November as increased buying interest tied to holiday and year-end needs persists.

Prices are expected to take on a steady to softer tone in the coming weeks, aligning with typical September seasonal trends. Demand for Tri Tips is set to fade following Labor Day, pressuring packers to lower offers to move product.

Prices are expected to hold a balanced tone through late September, resisting the usual seasonal decline. Top Butts offer strong relative value compared to other beef cuts, drawing increased interest from retail buyers in the near term.

Prices are anticipated to move sideways through September in line with typical seasonal trends. Although Brisket demand usually tapers off after Labor Day, tighter supplies should provide underlying support.

Prices are set to take on a softer tone heading into September, as limited post-Labor Day demand leaves more product on the market to be absorbed.

Prices will hold steady in the coming weeks, bucking the usual post-grilling-season decline. Elevated retail featuring of Skirt Meat—well above both last week and year-ago levels—should continue to provide price support.

Prices will continue to display a firm tone in September, diverging from the month’s typical range-bound pattern. Strong foodservice demand amid tighter supplies will provide ongoing support.

Prices are projected to remain firm in the coming weeks, despite seasonal trends that typically pressure September values. Strong retail demand for quality ground product will continue to lend support.

Prices are expected to hold firm in the weeks ahead, defying the typical September softening trend. Elevated retail demand for quality ground product will continue to underpin the market.

Processors are clearing inventories to avoid plant backlogs, leading to significant discounts on several items, especially boneless breast meat and tenders. Despite lower prices, many buyers remain reluctant to purchase due to limited demand and concerns about carrying aging product.

Breasts and front halves continue to trade at supportive levels as moderate demand absorbs available supplies. This comes despite a sharp drop in demand for boneless breast meat, which is widely available at significant discounts across all sizes. While pricing varies by processor and location, overall sales reflect a sharply lower market trend as sellers work to clear inventories. A similar situation is unfolding for tenders.

Meanwhile, demand for wings is unseasonably lackluster as many wing restaurants focus more heavily on boneless wing promotions compared to the traditional bone-in offerings. This, along with the week-of-the-twos buying patterns, continues to contribute to sellers discounting jumbo offerings in order to try to move production. Meanwhile, the medium wings are also under some pressure, but discounting is not consistent. Small wings maintain a steady to about steady rating.

Bone-in back half movement remains slow as the week winds down. Leg quarters are the most actively traded, with steady flows into both domestic and export markets. Legs and thighs hold mostly steady, with only limited discounting reported. Drums remain under pressure, though sales are no longer consistently discounted. Thigh meat is steady to about steady. Overall, the market appears balanced, though some product is available at slightly lower values. Fresh leg meat is readily available at discounts, while frozen inventories are building more slowly.

Whole turkeys remain scarce, with limited fresh availability and little relief from frozen volumes. Sellers continue to dictate terms as fall and early winter coverage progresses, forcing buyers to pay higher levels with few alternatives. Even so, spot sales have been light in recent days.

Raw materials remain the most aggressively pursued lines. Fresh and frozen breast meat, along with tenders, are consistently difficult to source, with firm to sharply higher bids keeping values elevated.

Prices should trend more balanced in the weeks ahead, though seasonal softness is expected into September. Tighter cold storage belly stocks signal stronger domestic demand, but foodservice—especially breakfast—and retail buying will remain seasonally limited.

Prices are likely to hold steady to slightly softer in the coming weeks, in line with seasonal patterns. Anticipated gains in pork production will be tempered by waning demand as consumers wind down grilling season.

Prices are expected to take on a more balanced tone in the coming weeks, consistent with normal seasonal trends. While retail demand typically eases after the grilling season, continued buying from foodservice and export markets should help keep values stable.

Prices are likely to stay range-bound in the coming weeks, in line with seasonal trends. Higher pork production should be absorbed by strong pulled pork demand as football season ramp ups.

Prices are expected to firm slightly in the coming weeks despite higher overall pork production. Limited cold storage stocks of hams, combined with renewed demand from Mexico, will support near-term values.

The blue swimming crab meat market is holding full steady across all grades, with no changes reported this week. Upward pricing pressure persists, driven by existing tariffs of 19% for Indonesia, 20% for Vietnam, and 50% for India, coupled with ongoing inventory tightness and higher replacement costs resulting from continued raw material shortages. US supplies remain barely adequate in the face of moderate to active demand, prompting market participants to keep close watch on inventory levels and tariff developments.

Rising replacement costs and tightening supply continue to apply upward pressure. Despite just fair spot-market demand, sellers were again successful in advancing prices, as buyers grow more accepting of the current pricing environment. The dynamic remains defined by rising replacement values – with each new arrival priced above the last – and ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and logistics. Sellers continue to manage their positions carefully, prioritizing price discipline over volume movement. White shrimp inventories remain adequate, but replacement concerns are mounting, especially as costs escalate and forward availability becomes less certain.

Black tiger shrimp supplies remain structurally short, with replacement costs considerably higher.

Wild shrimp offerings remain limited, with that segment of the market holding firm.

The warm-water lobster tail market is entering a tighter-than-normal holiday season, with wholesale prices already firm, particularly for the most popular sizes of 5–6, 6–7, and 7–8 ounce tails. The loss of Brazilian product has further constrained availability, driving upward pressure on these key counts, with trade sources characterizing the market as steady to strong. Seasonal demand is expected to intensify as restaurants, caterers, and retailers secure supply for Thanksgiving and December holidays, leading to tighter-than-usual inventories. Buyers are advised to plan ahead and lock in core holiday needs early in the fall rather than risk exposure to limited spot market opportunities. Overall, the outlook is for a firm to firming market through the holiday period.

Cold-water lobster tail supply is under pressure as we head into the holidays. Maine landings have fallen from recent highs as lobsters shift farther north into Canadian waters, and that northward movement — combined with spotty weather and shorter fishing seasons in parts of the U.S. Northeast — has reduced the volume available for processing into frozen tails and meat. These lower landings mean a larger share of catch is being taken up by the live and fresh meat markets, leaving less product to be converted into frozen tails. Prices for cold-water tails and processed lobster meat are therefore firm to firming. .
Pricing is FIRM

The lobster meat market—spanning freshly processed claw, knuckle, and tail meat from both cold- and warm-water sources—remains firmly supported by demand amid tightening supplies. In cold-water fisheries, Maine landings continue to decline as lobsters migrate northward and severe storms disrupt infrastructure, shifting more of the harvest into higher-margin live and whole-fresh channels and leaving less volume for meat processing. Warm-water supply, including Caribbean spiny/rock lobster, is also constrained, as Brazilian-origin tails—a key input for meat—have been sidelined following the implementation of 50% tariffs in August 2025. With limited availability across both sources, prices for fresh and frozen lobster meat remain elevated and are expected to stay firm in the months ahead.

The Canadian snow crab market is entering the holiday season with constrained supply. The 2025 Newfoundland quotas have been met, but lower catch limits are restricting the volume available for processing and wholesale distribution. Larger sizes remain scarce and continue to command premiums, while the early season close and limited inventories are leaving buyers with tighter availability. These factors are expected to support firm pricing through the holiday period, with prices holding elevated.

The Ahi (Yellowfin) tuna market is experiencing a period of volatility and uncertainty as it approaches the holiday season. Availability has been inconsistent due to fluctuating catch volumes and seasonal variations. In key sourcing regions such as Indonesia and the Philippines, which together supply approximately 75–80% of U.S. tuna imports, catch rates have been unpredictable, leading to supply constraints. Recent tariff developments have introduced additional pressure on the market. In July 2025, the U.S. imposed a 19% tariff on tuna imports from the Philippines, a significant supplier of yellowfin tuna. This move has disrupted established trade flows and contributed to price increases.

The Pangasius market is experiencing a period of volatility and uncertainty as it approaches the holiday season. Availability has been inconsistent due to fluctuating catch volumes and seasonal variations. In key sourcing regions such as Vietnam, which supplies approximately 90% of U.S. imports, catch rates have been unpredictable, leading to supply constraints. Looking ahead to the holiday season, the combination of reduced availability and higher costs suggests a tighter market for Pangasius. Short Term: Prices are expected to remain stable, with the potential for further increases.

The 2025 Keta salmon harvest is projected to be robust, with Alaska anticipating a 20% increase in catch volumes compared to the previous year. This uptick follows a significant rebound from the 2020 harvest lows, positioning Alaska as the primary supplier alongside Russia. Japan, another key producer, has not yet released its 2025 harvest forecast. In Alaska, Keta salmon is predominantly processed into frozen H&G (headed and gutted) products, which constitute 48% of the wholesale value, and roe, accounting for 40%. Frozen fillets make up a smaller portion at 5%. The primary export markets for these products are China and Japan, respectively. The increased harvest and stable supply are expected to maintain competitive pricing levels, barring unforeseen market disruptions. Short Term: Price steady

The Chilean salmon market is experiencing a period of relative stability, with production levels showing a 7.4% year-to-date increase compared to 2024, although still below 2023 figures. Export volumes for the first half of 2025 have declined by 1.5% year-over-year, totaling 361,000 metric tons. This downturn is attributed to factors such as environmental challenges, regulatory pressures, and trade dynamics. Short Term: Pricing stable at the moment.

Despite the fluctuations in pricing, Norwegian salmon remains widely available in the global market. The strong export volumes to Europe and Asia have helped maintain a balance between supply and demand. In July 2025, Norway’s seafood export value increased by 9% compared to the previous quarter, driven by growth in China and the U.S. markets. However, the increased competition from other exporting countries may impact market share in certain regions Short Term: Pricing stable at the moment.

The frozen tilapia fillet market is expected to remain steady in the near term, with pricing and availability showing little change. Supply levels are sufficient, and demand remains consistent, suggesting these conditions will continue through the fall. The U.S. 50% tariff on Brazilian seafood, including tilapia, has reduced the competitiveness of Brazilian product, resulting in lower exports from Brazil. However, other suppliers have stepped in to fill the gap, helping to maintain overall market stability and keeping prices steady.

Supplies remain tight, especially for smaller fish sizes (3/5, 5/7 fillets, and 7/9 whole), with some ongoing shortages. With the end of the summer approaching, we should see some relief on availability on all sizes in the next few months.

The hurricane weather brought on by Erin brought boats back home and certainly disrupted the fishing. While fishing has resumed, the majority of catch has been in the 20/30 range with total daily offloads averaging near 20,000#’s. Far below the normal. We expect this trend to continue over the next couple of months until boats get into late fall early winter colder waters and higher demand for fresh product.

The overall Mahi market is currently facing challenges due to limited availability. Although buyers are sourcing from multiple packers, inventory levels have remained largely unchanged. Availability is at its lowest point since 2018. Significant price increases have already occurred and are expected to continue rising.

Milk production remains impressive this summer, with July output coming in 3.4% above last year and herds expanding further to their highest levels since 2021. This has kept plenty of fluid milk coming to market to satisfy processor needs, even with the seasonal declines in animal productivity during the summer months. On the cream side, record monthly milk fat tests have kept large amounts of cream coming to the market, while Class II demand has started to soften and report suggest excessive offers nearby.

After moving sharply lower the past few weeks, prices are attempting to stabilize. Abundant cream availability has kept churns running hard at a time of year when churn rates are typically their slowest. Even with extremely competitive export prices, global preferences for a higher butterfat content and other factors could limit just how much more butter the US can export. Updated cold storage report from the USDA showed stocks declining by more than normal, coming in 6% below last year despite production running 10% higher this past month. Even with the disappointing cold storage levels, the market remains comfortable with the increased supply coming to market. Recent reports suggest the trend of stronger YOY production should continue in the coming months as cream supplies are more available than recent years.

Cheese prices remain rangebound amid ongoing strength in export demand and strong domestic cheese production. Given the need to remain competitive into the world market, prices have struggled on rallies. The seasonally slower summer milk output has limited milk supplies nearby, while overall supplies are still following the trend of increased availability vs. prior years. This has supported record cheese production, with total cheese output setting a record in June and 4.2% higher YOY. Larger cheese supplies are finding their way to market from increased plan capacity and is a major headwind to sharply higher prices. Updated cold storage levels showed all cheese in cold storage declining marginally from last month, but coming in 0.9% higher YOY. American cheese stocks followed a similar path, coming in +2.1% YOY in July but down slightly from June.

The shell egg market is struggling to push much lower nearby as the setback in prices the past few weeks has sparked renewed order interest. Foodservice demand has remained muted, but the market is now looking ahead at the fall migration HPAI risk. Updated USDA reports showed July egg laying flocks grow by 6.3 million head from June to 296.9 million. This is still about 2.1% below prior year levels, but the longer term trends suggest further build in the coming months. Both layer type eggs in incubators and chicks hatched this past month were 9% and 4% higher, respectively, and margins remain favorable. Cage free layers grew by 3.3 million head in July to 133.8 million, pushing cage free flocks to yet another record level. Longer term, producer margins are still solid due to the lower YOY feed costs and historically firm shell egg values, and should drive further flock expansion.

Soybean oil futures have pushed back to their lowest levels since mid-June as record crush is keeping soybean oil coming to market and softer energy prices are reducing biodiesel margins. Weaker prices are starting to generate renewed buying interest from both domestic and global buyers, and will limit downside until more is known around the EPA’s forward biofuel policy. Domestic spot crude and refined soybean oil basis offers continued to show a weaker tone last week as renewable diesel margins remain poor for the fourth quarter.

Canola seed futures closed sharply lower last week, making a new low for the recent move and are now down 17.5% from their June peak. Statistics Canada estimated their 2025 canola crop at 19.937 million metric tons, below the average trade estimate but still up from 19.24 million last year. RBD canola oil values continued to drop on the back of Chinese anti-dumping tariffs in excess of 75%.

Palm oil futures are slightly lower this week and taking note of the weakness in the soybean oil prices. Indonesian officials have claimed that the United States has agreed in principal to exempt imports of Indonesian palm oil from tariffs. They also raised their crude plan oil export duty by $50 per metric ton for September. India’s palm oil imports surged in August to a 13-month high, as early month competitive pricing relative to soy oil prompted refiners to ramp up purchases ahead of the festive season, according to five dealers.

• Prices are escalating
• Jumbo and large sizes are extremely limited

Supplies are diminishing in California’s San Joaquin Valley; production is winding
down.

• Pacific Northwest volume is starting to decrease.
• Expect markets to rise.

The market hit its peak and has started to ease as warmer weather is promoting
growth and increasing yields.

• •The Northwest onion season is off to a strong start with Washington, Oregon, and Idaho fresh-run onion harvests in full swing. Colorado
  and Utah are ramping up as New Mexico winds down.
• Markets are steady at lower levels.

• The California Valencia crop is dominated by large sizes (56- and
  88-count pieces); small supplies (88- and 138-count oranges) are
  tightening.
• With many schools’ seasons underway and many more starting in the coming weeks, small oranges will become limited.

• Expect falling prices as the season moves into September.
• As the industry
  transitions from storage to new crop potatoes, advanced orders and maintaining
  tight inventories are highly recommended.

Zucchini and yellow squash markets are up slightly due to stronger demand and lower yields. Markon First Crop (MFC) Zucchini and Yellow Squash are available.

• The Northeast and Midwest are seeing cooler nights this week, slowing plant growth
• Harvesting started in North Carolina this week
• California’s Santa Maria and Central Valley growing regions have steady volume due to warmer temperatures; quality is good
• Baja growers are shipping moderate volume (crossing into Otay Mesa, California)
• Expect steady to slightly higher prices over the next week due to lower temperatures