Market Outlook

Prices will shift to a strong tone over the next several weeks, respecting seasonal trends heading into grilling season. Supplies of Ribeyes the are uncommitted remain tight, forcing price competition amongst buyers for available loads of product.

Prices will continue to show a more balanced tone through the end of May, largely respecting seasonal trends for the month. Retail demand will be adequate in coming weeks, however Foodservice demand will moderate due to continuing trends moderating demand.

Prices will take on a steady to softer tone over the next several weeks, trading away from seasonal trend for the month. While supplies will remain on the tighter side in coming weeks, buying interest will shift away from Tenderloins to other middle meats in coming weeks.

Prices will trade with a firm tone in coming weeks as the seasonal trend for values to strengthen in May is very strong. Tri Tips will not only have appeal due to grilling demand, Foodservice buyers will continue to expand their buying interest in the near term.

Prices will maintain a strong tone in coming weeks, even with current values for Choice-graded product trading at near record levels. Top Butts have tremendous retail appeal currently, forcing Foodservice buyers to bid aggressively to assure supply.

Prices are expected to remain firm through the end of May, supported by strong seasonal trends. Briskets continue to offer solid value relative to other cuts, likely prompting increased retail featuring in the weeks ahead.

Prices are expected to remain firm over the coming weeks, as the typical seasonal strength heading into June is reinforced by tightening supplies.

Prices are expected to take on a more neutral tone in the coming weeks, as improved chuck availability has increased supply to further processors for ground beef production.

Round prices will likely remain weak in May, following the typical seasonal decline in demand for this primal. Adequate inside round supplies combined with softening domestic consumption will continue to pressure the market.

Prices will shift to a more neutral tone over the next several weeks. Chuck availability has improved in recent weeks, putting more loads in the hands of further processors to be fabricated into ground product.

Prices will take on a steady tone in coming weeks, even though demand for Ground Beef tends to seasonally strengthen in May. Domestic availability of both lean and fat trimmings will be ample enough to keep prices in check.

The WOG complex is winding down under a well-supported tone, with adequate supplies aligning with moderate spot demand. Sellers report steady retail movement, alongside a slight uptick in QSR-related cutting activity compared to last week. Live weights remain inconsistent, with some plants processing underperforming birds while others are closer to target levels.

Bone-in breasts and front halves are trading within a narrow, steady range, supported by consistent demand. Market-moving developments have been minimal, and that trend continued this morning. Boneless breasts of all sizes are closing on a stable note, with current paid prices reinforcing unchanged quotations. While overall seller sentiment remains neutral, some sellers are testing modest premiums amid signs of buyer flexibility. Tenders are well-cleared and in strong demand across both retail and foodservice channels, prompting buyers to increase bids when limited spot loads become available.

Wings of all sizes are experiencing a more stable trading environment compared to recent weeks. Improved spot availability, combined with increased value-driven buyer interest, has helped center negotiations around a range of mostly supportive values. As a result, this segment is rated as about steady to steady.

Legs and thighs are moving well into domestic purchasing channels at supportive price points. Leg quarters and drumsticks are following a similar trend, with some marketers adopting a more bullish stance in negotiations. Export activity remains limited, though recent volumes have helped sustain current quoted values. Leg meat demand is moderate, with stable market conditions prevailing. Thigh meat continues to see strong interest, driving slightly higher prices when limited production is available.

Whole-body toms and hens are seeing typical seasonal interest, though activity remains subdued due to limited offerings and a focus on future supply needs. While spot activity has been somewhat sporadic this morning, whole-body toms and hens are experiencing reasonable seasonal demand. The market remains quiet largely due to a lack of available stock for immediate needs, with buyers primarily seeking supply for midsummer and beyond. Small spot trades have surfaced at slight premiums, driven by urgency, and several bookings were confirmed late last week at various premiums for forward delivery. The market tone is steady to firm. Bone-in breasts, both consumer and institutional sizes, continue to be tightly held, supported by strong demand for ground turkey and raw inputs.

Raw material markets remain competitive, with both fresh and frozen breast meat in demand from further processors and export buyers. Activity levels vary, particularly for fresh tom meat, where limited supplies are allowing sellers to be more aggressive in their pricing approach. Buyers are aware that higher bids don’t always guarantee availability, but offering their best prices increases their chances of securing product.

Prices will maintain a firm tone going into June as the seasonal trend for values to firm is very strong. Strong demand from retail buyers will far offset the impact of a weaker demand pull from Foodservice/QSR.

Prices will trade steady through the end of the month, defying the seasonal trend for value to firm going into grilling season. The pullback in demand from Asian export buyers in the face in higher production will keep prices in check.

Prices will continue to trade steady in coming weeks, despite the seasonal trend for values to firm in May. Retail demand will be slower to develop in coming weeks, keeping prices more in balance than in prior years.

Prices will trade steady through the end of the month, even though values tend to seasonally firm this time of the year. With demand for Cinco de Mayo now in the rear view mirror and export demand fading, prices will trade with a more steady tone.

Prices will continue to show a steady tone over the next several weeks, respecting seasonal trends for the month. While sales of bone-in Hams to Mexico remain strong, retail deli demand will soften as school year ends, keeping prices more rangebound in the near term.

The market for blue swimming crabmeat remains largely unchanged, though the undertone is highly unsettled due to the announcement of universal tariffs and the subsequent delay of reciprocal tariffs for many Southeast Asian countries. Many stakeholders are adopting a wait-and-see approach, as universal tariffs took effect on April 5th, while reciprocal tariffs have been delayed until July 9th. Overall, supplies in the U.S. are adequate, and demand remains mostly moderate. Many market participants continue to monitor individual inventory positions closely. Overall, the market trend is steady, with some uncertainty driven by tariff-related factors.

The shrimp market showed selective price increases, while the broader market remains steady to firm. Sellers are navigating the balance between higher replacement costs and a domestic market still adjusting to these increases. The additional financial strain from tariff bond requirements adds further complexity to the cost structure. Overall, the market trend is steady to firm, with rising costs and tariff challenges continuing to put pressure on prices.

Values increased across all categories due to limited availability and steady demand. The value added segment also showed strength, driven by tight replacement conditions. Overall, the market trend is firm, supported by constrained supply and consistent demand.

Values increased, driven by a firm market bias and reports of limited landings. The availability of large shrimp remains extremely constrained.

Prime-sized warm-water lobster tails, particularly those weighing between 5 to 9 ounces, are witnessing strong demand, resulting in firm pricing attributed to the limited seasonal availability of these sizes. Conversely, larger sizes are facing price reductions as sellers offer discounts to stimulate buyer interest, indicating a softer demand in this segment. Pricing is up for smaller sizes and stable for larger sizes.

Cold-water lobster tail prices have experienced downward pressure due to ample inventories and a cautious purchasing approach from buyers. This trend reflects a broader market sentiment where sellers are adjusting prices to stimulate demand amid abundant supply . Immediate supply remains stable, the introduction of tariffs poses risks that could affect future market dynamics, trade relationships, and the economic well-being of industry stakeholders. Pricing is Stable could increase with Tariffs.

Prices have risen due to lower catch volumes not keeping up with the strong demand from both foodservice and retail. Value-added products and direct-to-consumer sales are driving growth. Export demand, particularly from Asia and Europe, remains robust. Sustainability concerns and regulatory pressures are also shaping market strategies.
Long-term: The market will likely remain volatile, influenced by harvest yields, trade policies, and global seafood demand trends.

Uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian seafood has led to delays in the snow crab fishing season, particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador. Price negotiations between local processors and fishermen were suspended, awaiting clarity on trade policies. Tight supplies due to quota reductions and delayed fishing seasons, leading to initial price surges followed by recent declines as new landings approach. Stakeholders should remain vigilant, monitoring policy developments and exploring diversification strategies to navigate this evolving landscape effectively. Pricing is on the rise.

The U.S. Ahi (yellowfin) tuna supply constrained due to global shortages and fishing restrictions, escalating prices influenced by both scarcity and new tariffs, and a consumer base increasingly focused on health and sustainability. Stakeholders should monitor ongoing regulatory changes and market responses to navigate this evolving landscape effectively. Pricing Trend: Stable at the moment, but could rise with more demand.

Pangasius availability remains stable, though rising farm-gate prices in Vietnam are emerging as buyers shift away from China. Potential U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese pangasius are a key factor that could drive prices higher and impact availability in the U.S. market in the coming months. In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable, with the possibility of further increases.

The Keta salmon market appears to have stable availability, with prices generally positioned as moderate compared to other wild salmon. While specific tariff impacts on Keta salmon are not detailed in the provided results, broader changes in seafood trade could have indirect effects. Keta salmon remains a popular choice due to its firm texture, mild flavor, and versatility in culinary applications Short Term: Price steady.

The Chilean salmon market is navigating a period of moderate production expectations and stable prices, but faces significant headwinds from potential US tariffs and ongoing domestic regulatory challenges. While traditional export markets remain important, there is growth in non-traditional markets and a focus on expanding to new regions like Australia. The industry is also grappling with the need to enhance sustainability and improve public perception. Pricing is stable.

Supply remains robust, continuing to exert pressure on prices. Despite lower pricing, Norwegian salmon exports have experienced strong growth, particularly to the U.S., where the value of salmon exports increased by 47% year-over-year in Q1 2025. The U.S. continues to be the top market for Norwegian seafood for the fourth consecutive month. In the short term, prices are expected to remain steady.

The tilapia market continues to experience steady growth, driven by its affordability, versatility, and appeal to health-conscious consumers. In the United States, demand is rising due to tilapia’s lean protein profile and adaptability to various cuisines, including Asian and Latin American dishes . Currently, the U.S. wholesale market for tilapia fillets remains stable. Frozen tilapia prices have held steady, looking ahead, there are concerns about tighter raw material supplies with looming tariffs and potential cost increases post-Chinese New Year. Short term: Pricing is steady to increasing.

Catfish supply is currently adequate, but increasing pressure is being felt as some buyers shift toward domestic products due to tariff impacts. Additionally, the summer heat is affecting the growth and sizing of fish, with early signs of reduced growth rates already visible in pond sizes. This, coupled with the seasonal challenges, is leading to upward price pressure.

The scallop harvest is trending upward with larger hauls than initially expected. Early spawning is causing some softness, with a good number of pumpkin/orange scallops, which are considered the sweetest in the bag. As a result, pricing for drier scallops remains mixed, while softer scallops are commanding lower prices. Overall, quality is good, and pricing is expected to improve in the coming month.

Weekly milk production reports are seasonally strong across the majority of the country given spring flush, while parts of the South are already past peak levels. California continues to trend higher amid slowing HPAI outbreaks. More normalized milk levels, larger herd sizes than last year and strong milk components are helping keep adequate supply coming to market. Nearby demand has stabilized after a strong start to the year, helping keep spot offers well below class and below year ago levels. On the cream side, record milk fat tests have continued to bring an abundance of cream to the market as supplies are readily available and have kept cream multiples historically weak.

The butter market remains in consolidation mode and well within the past month’s range. Solid production schedules and cheap cream availability continue to limit just how expensive butter needs to be at this time of year. Butter production in March came in 8.6% higher than last year and has kept large amounts of butter coming to market. However, even with churns running near capacity in the US, cold storage inventories this past month were only 2.6% higher than last year and highlight solid demand so far this year. Recent reports suggest this trend of stronger production and stocks should continue in the coming months as milk supply out West normalizes from the HPAI impacts this past fall/winter. March exports noted another large uptick in sales, while forward sales will likely face some headwinds amid ongoing tariff uncertainty.

The cheese markets have found support this past week amid strong export sales and renewed order interest. Weakness in the US Dollar and competitive prices have encouraged strong exports, while expectations for larger production and only steady domestic offtake are limiting further upside nearby. Ongoing uncertainty around tariffs present headwinds for further export growth.  Also helping limit upside risk is the rebuilding supply situation in the US.  With peak spring flush levels at hand and cheese production/stocks still ramping up from low levels last year, there should be adequate supply into the summer. Domestic cheese demand has been limited across both retail and foodservice as consumer confidence deteriorates.  March production data showed all cheese output +1.4% vs. last year.  American and cheddar output were even higher, coming in at +4.6% and +5.4% respectively.  The market is still in transition as increased production is starting to come online and supplies look to recover from historically tight levels.

The shell egg prices resumed their lower trend this past week, with cage free prices leading the charge.  The slower pace of HPAI outbreaks has helped push supplies back into better balance, along with the favorable margin structure helping rebuild laying flocks. The smaller flocks are still limiting the amount of egg coming to market, but it appears we have finally reached supply/demand equilibrium for the moment.  Domestic order interest has been solid so far this spring and is limiting large scale weakness nearby.  The USDA released updated flock sizes, with laying hen totals as of April 1st coming in at 286.6 million.  This is basically unchanged from last month and the smallest US flock since the HPAI outbreaks of 2015. Longer term, producer margins are still solid due to the lower YOY feed costs and historically firm shell egg values, and should drive further flock expansion in 2025. Cage free layers in April were essentially unchanged from March as HPAI outbreaks have remained calm in key cage free states and producers reevaluate flock needs.

Soybean oil futures are pulling back from their recent highs as energy prices have softened, putting pressure on biofuel margins. This, along with no clarity around biofuel mandates into 2026 and the potential for increased Small Refinery Exemptions, have limited further upside nearby. Export demand has slowed down dramatically as S. American basis values are well below US offers and palm remains at a soy oil. The stocks situation is still historically tight and will limit downside nearby, but prices are correcting off their recent highs.

Canola seed futures made another new high for the move last week and have now rallied over $140 per ton or 24.6% since the middle of March on solid export numbers and most recently drier conditions in the Canadian prairies. Canadian canola seed exports for the 24/25 season to date are now at 7.52 million metric tons, up from 4.37 million for the same period last year. RBD canola oil values were steady to firm last week.

Palm oil futures are stabilizing near their recent lows as seasonal production gains in both Malaysia and Indonesia have been weighing on the market. However, with palm oil prices back at a discount to the soybean oil in the forward positions, export demand is expected to pick back up.

Prices are inching down. While Mexico’s Caborca season has ended, production has transitioned to the Baja Peninsula. Markon First Crop (MFC) Asparagus is available.

Mexico

• Although Baja quality is strong, this is a short season that bridges the gap from Caborca to Central Mexico
• Expect prices to ease through May and early June as more supplies come online and demand from the Easter and Mother’s Day holidays wanes
• Under the existing U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), Mexican asparagus is not being targeted for additional tariff enforcement

Peru

• Yields are low and quality is poor following high temperatures
• Production will shift to the north of the country this month
• Mother’s Day flower demand has restricted availability for asparagus air/boat freight
• Peru remains a target for additional tariff action by the Trump administration; expect higher FOB pricing in Miami/East Coast ports as a result

U.S. and Canada

• The Pacific Northwest season is in full swing in Idaho and Washington
• Growers will start harvesting in Michigan and Southern Canada this week
• California and South Carolina production is limited
• Expect increased supplies out of multiple regions to further contribute to lower markets by late May through mid- to late June

Blueberry supplies are slowly increasing in California and Georgia. Expect prices to ease over the next two weeks.

• The Mexican season is past its peak; production is rapidly decreasing, and is expected to end in late May
• Georgia yields will climb this week
• California’s San Joaquin Valley season has started in a limited manner
• Florida volume is down 40% compared to this time last year; the season will wrap up in two weeks
• Expect slowly declining pricing as production continues to increase in Georgia and California

California

• MFC Premium Broccoli is being harvested in California’s Salinas and Santa Maria Valleys
• Markets are steady at low levels amid tepid demand
• Strong supply levels are forecast for the next two weeks
• Quality is good; brown bead/pin rot, yellowing, hollow core, branching, and insect pressure are minimal
• Expect domestic prices to remain mostly steady at low levels through mid-May

Mexico

• Mexican-grown MFC Premium Broccoli continues to ship into South Texas
• This market is more volatile than domestic, although prices remain comparable in both regions
• Quality is good; sporadic hollow core following high heat and mechanical damage from packing oversized heads have been noted

East Coast

• Georgia production will run through May
  • Quality is very good
  • Markets are steady at average levels
• The North Carolina season starts this week and will continue well into June

Rising heat and persistent labor issues have kept markets extremely elevated. MFC and Ready-Set-Serve (RSS) Brussels Sprouts are limited.

• High temperatures are reducing supplies and limiting harvests in Mexico
• The season is past its peak production and entering the hottest months of the year
  • The majority of supplies are being harvested in Mexico at this time, severely limiting availability
  • Hot weather is leading to quality problems such as discoloration, yellow leaves, seeder/elongated sprouts, and reduced value-added shelf-life
• The Oxnard, California season has started in a limited manner; acreage is minimal
• Jumbo sprouts are extremely scarce, as growers must harvest at earlier stages to fill current demand and prevent additional quality issues that may develop with additional days in the ground
• Low volume and elevated prices will persist through the next three to four weeks; expect relief in late June or early July when the Salinas season begins

The California Navel season is projected to wrap up in late June. California Valencia production has started in a limited manner. Expect elevated prices through the transition.

Navels

• MFC and Markon Essentials (ESS) Navel Oranges are available
• Small oranges (113- and 138-count sizes) will be limited through the rest of the Navel season
• Size and grade substitutions may be requested to fill orders
• Late-season Navel varieties will remain available until mid- to late June
• Quality is good; sugar levels range from 10 to 12 Brix

Valencias

• MFC and ESS Valencia Oranges are available
• Suppliers have begun shipping limited quantities; the season is expected to ramp up in late June
• Large fruit (56- and 88-count sizes) will be limited to start the season; small oranges (113- and 138-count sizes) will be more plentiful
• Early production will require no gassing as color is ideal; expect gassing in July/August when Valencias start to regreen from high heat
• Quality is very good; sugar levels range from 12 to 14 Brix

Central American cantaloupe and honeydew volume is starting to decrease as the offshore melon season winds down.

Cantaloupe

Central America

• Volume is decreasing
• Remaining supplies are dominated by large/9-count fruit; smaller/12- to 15-count sizes are limited
• The offshore cantaloupe season will finish the week of May 26
• Expect steady markets over the next 7-10 days

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Desert harvests will start in a limited manner the week of May 12; more growers will start production the following week
• Cooler weather has impacted growth and delayed initial harvests by several days; growers expect small fruit size early in the season
• Initial prices are expected to be slightly lower than offshore fruit

Honeydew

Central America/Mexico

• Central American supplies are limited; delayed shipments are causing occasional quality issues
• Remaining supplies are dominated by large/five-count size fruit; smaller/6- to 8-count sizes are limited
• The Central American offshore honeydew season will wrap up the week of May 26
• Expect steady prices over the next 7-10 days
• Mexican volume is steady at slightly lower prices, helping offset demand for offshore fruit

Arizona-California Desert Region

• Domestic desert harvests will begin in a limited manner the week of May 19, with more growers starting production the week of May 26
• Initial prices are expected to be slightly lower compared to offshore fruit

Cucumber prices are weak. Supplies are average in Mexico, while East Coast growers are transitioning from Florida to Georgia. MFC Cucumbers are available.

• The Florida season is winding down, tightening supplies
• Georgia production has started; volume is climbing and quality is very good
• Mexico yields are steady out of the Sonora and Baja growing regions
• Expect low prices over the next two weeks

Strawberry supplies are ample; demand remains strong this week.

Oxnard/Santa Maria, California

• MFC Strawberries are available
• The forecast calls for clear, mild weather for the rest of the week
• Quality is good; some green shoulders have been reported
• Size is medium (16-24 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell)
• The Oxnard and Santa Maria seasons are past their peaks; volume will start to decline
• Expect markets to ease as Mother’s Day pull ends

Salinas/Watsonville

• Harvesting and shipping will begin May 12; MFC Strawberries will be available
• Size is large (10-14 berries per 8/1-pound clamshell)
• Defects include light bruising due to size and a few white shoulders
• Expect markets to decline as Mother’s Day pull ends

The California stone fruit season is approaching; volume will ramp up in early June.

Peaches

• The California season will run from mid-May to mid-September
• Fruit will begin shipping the week of May 12
• Good quality is forecast with sugar levels ranging between 11 and 13 Brix; sweetness/flavor will peak in late June
• The Georgia peach season will begin in mid-May and continue through August

Nectarines

• The season will run from late May through mid-September
• Fruit will begin shipping the week of May 19
• Good quality is forecast with sugar levels ranging from 10 to 12 Brix

Plums

• The California season will run from early June to mid-October
• Fruit will begin shipping the week of June 2
• Expect good quality